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South Korea is currently developing a new frontline fighter jet called the KAI KF-21 Boremae (“Hunting Hawk”). This allows South Korea to join an elite group of fighter jet manufacturers. Many analysts believe the KF-21 has significant export potential, particularly as Russia’s fighter export market has contracted or otherwise collapsed. It may also challenge Western fighters such as the Rafale, Gripen, and F-16 Block 70 in some competitions, depending on customer requirements and price.
Most analysts do not think the KF-21 will directly compete with the much more capable and mature F-35 or the heavy F-15EX. While it’s beyond the scope of this article to delve into, the KF-21 is heavily reliant on international supply chains for key systems. These include the General Electric F414-GE-400K and the US’s ability to deliver them in the promised quantity (US engine delays are also affecting India’s Tejas). Two of the KF-21’s key advantages are geopolitical and global production backlogs.
The Block Upgrade Approach
As South Korea has never built an advanced frontline fighter jet before and is building on its success in developing the KA-50 Golden Eagle light fighter/advanced trainer, the country is taking a measured approach. The KF-21 may look like a 5th-generation stealth fighter, similar to the Lockheed Martin F-35, but it is not, at least not initially. Speaking of the KF-21, Su-57, and Kaan, Rusi’s Justin Bronks noted that it is comparatively easy to build a stealthy-looking jet that will fly.
However, Bronks adds it is unbelievably expensive to build a system that will function as an integrated stealth fighter platform. Knowing this, the KF-21 is taking a different approach. The emphasis is on quickly developing a good enough jet with upgrade potential and bringing it to market. The initial Block 1 variants being purchased now will be used for air superiority, and they lack key capabilities, like using their internal weapons bays. This forces them to carry munitions externally and compromises their stealth profile.
A Block II variant is expected to enter service in 2028, and this will come with improvements that will see it upgraded to a multi-role fighter and a 4.5th-generation fighter jet. Eventually, South Korea wants to develop a Block III upgrade that will make it a 5th-generation stealth fighter with enhanced radar-absorbent materials, a better AESA radar, advanced avionics, MUM-T, and possibly a future South Korean domestic engine.
The KF-21’s Geopolitical Advantages
A combination of factors has caused Russia’s former fighter jet market to collapse. These include the rise of China and its more advanced fighter jet designs, the passage of the US CAATSA act in 2017 sanctioning Russian fighter jets, perceived quality issues with Russian jets, and the conflict with Ukraine. After CAATSA, Egypt, the Philippines, and Indonesia all canceled their orders for Russian jets and helicopters, while expected orders from countries like Serbia never came.
Russia’s remaining customers include Algeria, Belarus, Myanmar, Kazakhstan, and India, although the latter are licence-built Indian Su-30MKIs. For most countries, it is still geopolitically difficult to purchase Chinese fighters. At the same time, many of the would-have-been Russian customers are reluctant to purchase US fighter jets. This has left European fighter jets as the go-to geopolitical middle ground.
The entry of the KF-21 into the market allows countries to have another choice that is both palatable to Washington and not Chinese or Russian. Most defense experts see the KF-21 competing against the Su-35/30 and the failed MiG-35. The MiG-35 is an upgraded MiG-29 built for the export market that failed to secure a single international order. In the end, its only order was six units for a Russian aerobatics team.
The Production Slot Advantage
Another leading advantage of the KF-21 is South Korea’s apparent ability to deliver them comparatively quickly. Fighter jets are incredibly difficult to build, and it can take years to slowly ramp up production rates. The vast majority of fighter jet production is by the US and China, which both produce around 200-250 frontline fighter jets annually, or around 80–85% of the total. Russia adds another 20–40 or so (deliveries seem to have increased in 2025).
However, the Rafale’s deliveries remain constrained. In 2026, Dassault Aviation reported delivering 26 Rafales (15 for export and 11 for France); this was up from 21 in 2024 and 13 in 2023. The order book stood at 220 Rafales. If production were to remain steady, then at least one country would not be receiving the last of their jets for over eight years, or 2034. This means a new customer, placing a new order for the Rafale in 2026 with no preferential deliveries, would need to go to the back of the queue.
SIPRI’s 2025 10 largest arms suppliers | Combat aircraft exports (including combat/trainer, anti-sub aircraft) |
|---|---|
United States | 936 |
France | 180+ |
China | 90 |
South Korea | 88 |
Italy | 69 |
Russia | 68+ |
United Kingdom | 20 |
In reality, France is working to ramp up production and is negotiating to establish a new production facility in India as part of a massive new deal to sell another 114 Rafales. Even so, the backlogs help the KF-21 appear much more attractive. In 2026, Korea plans to deliver at least eight KF-21s; in 2027, it wants to ramp this up to 31 and then to 47 with other aircraft types in 2028. Its late 2020s production targets are 30+ per year. While many of these are slated for Korea’s air force, some will be available for export.
The Indonesia Question
Overall, potential export customers have largely taken a ‘wait and see’ approach to the KF-21. However, there is one notable exception: Indonesia. The KF-21 was initially a joint South Korean-Indonesian partnership with Indonesia paying for 20% of the development cost in exchange for technology transfer and other benefits. However, Indonesia struggled to make the payments and so negotiated to reduce its role to 7.5%.
Instead of going all in on the KF-21, Indonesia looked elsewhere at the same time. It is purchasing French Rafales and is expected to order more. It is also ordering, or negotiating to order, Chinese J-10Cs, Sino-Pakistani JF-17s, Turkish Kaans, as well as the KF-21. This is in addition to already operating Su-27/30s, F-16s, T-50 Golden Eagles, BAE Hawks, and EMB 314 Super Tucanos.
Indonesia had intended to purchase F-15EXs, but that is canceled. Efforts to purchase Russian jets and F-35s were frustrated by Washington. However, as bizarre as Indonesia’s fighter jet procurement strategy is, it appears it will be the first export country to operate the KF-21. One of the six prototype KF-21s is set to be cleared to be transferred to Indonesia, and it is expected to take delivery of a further 20 Block I jets for around $1.7 billion.
The Philippines Is Negotiating To Purchase $1.5 Billion KF-21s
Meanwhile, the Philippines is emerging as one of the most promising potential export markets for the KF-21. South Korea and the United States are both currently working with the Philippines for it to build a credible fighter fleet amid a period of high tensions with China. Defence Security Asia reported that the Philippine government is negotiating to purchase up to 20 KF-21 fighters.
This is part of the country’s RE-Horizon 3 modernization framework to bolster its armed forces, and the total package cost is estimated at between $1 and $1.5 billion. Defense Security Asia said that:
“South Korean industry and regional defence sources indicate the proposed package could involve between 12 and 20 aircraft, with deliveries expected between 2027 and 2029 as the Philippine Air Force accelerates efforts to establish a modern multirole combat aircraft capability.”
As already stated, these are very short delivery timelines for fighter jets in today’s world. The publication also explains that “KAI has reportedly prioritised the Philippines as one of the earliest export customers because Manila already operates FA-50PH light combat aircraft, creating an existing logistics ecosystem that significantly reduces training, sustainment, and operational integration risks.”
The United States also provides extensive military assistance to the Philippines. However, US security assistance to the Philippines is not generally structured to finance purchases of South Korean fighter aircraft. Any KF-21 acquisition would likely need to be funded separately by Manila.
The KF-21 Looks Set To Hit The Ground Running
Other countries that have shown interest in the jets include the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Malaysia. The UAE has a history of purchasing French fighter jets and is purchasing Rafale F4s, but there are some tensions. In 2020, it was announced that the UAE would purchase 50 F-35s, but this floundered. Frustrated, the UAE touted purchasing Chinese fighters, apparently as a pressuring tactic. It has shown keen interest in the KF-21.
Malaysia is notable for maintaining good relations with both Washington and Moscow, and it operates both Russian Su-30s and US F/A-18 legacy Hornets. Efforts to acquire ex-Kuwaiti Hornets appear to have fallen through. Malaysia is also effectively blocked from purchasing more Russian fighters due to CAATSA. It is now in active negotiations to purchase the KF-21 as part of the Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA) program.
For now, Indonesia, UAE, the Philippines, and Malaysia are the four prospective export customers mentioned by a July 2026 article by South Korea’s Seoul Economic Daily. That article quotes KAI President Kim Jong-chul as saying that “more than 200 units of the KF-21 are currently in export talks.” If even a portion of those discussions result in firm orders, the KF-21 would enjoy a significantly faster export start than either the Saab Gripen or Dassault Rafale, both of which required many years to establish themselves.
