Could this be the year to book your holiday flights extra, extra early? We think so.

Sure, the calendar has only just flipped to August. A lot of us haven’t even jetted off yet on our summer vacations.

And it feels a little strange to be thinking about brining turkeys, decking the halls or hitting the ski slopes while much of the country battles stifling heat waves.

But if you want to avoid holiday sticker shock in 2026, you might not want to wait much longer.

Airfare is hitting passengers’ wallets — with no signs of relief

As you (and your wallet) probably know by now, airfare has skyrocketed over the past five months.

The conflict in Iran has sent global oil prices surging. And airlines have been quick to pass on those higher jet fuel bills to passengers.

By the numbers: In June, average ticket prices were up a whopping 27% over last year.

And our first snapshot of the 2026 holiday season isn’t looking real promising, either, according to fresh data this week from TPG’s partners at Points Path:

Thanksgiving airfare

As of this week, round-trip domestic fares for Thanksgiving are running nearly 13% more expensive than 2025.

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Christmas and New Year’s airfare

Domestic fares for the year-end holidays (between Dec. 18 and Jan. 3) are up about 18% over last year.

Hoping to fly internationally? On average, you’ll pay about 19% more than a year ago.

If oil prices come down, fares will drop … right?

You might be thinking: “Ok, but if tensions thaw in the Middle East and oil prices come down, won’t fares drop?”

We’re not so sure.

Over the past few weeks, executives at nearly every major airline said customers have been more than willing to pay the higher fares — giving carriers little reason to cut prices.

United Airlines, for one, just had its busiest month ever in July.

“United has not seen a measurable demand impact based on the higher fares,” chief financial officer Michael Leskinen said on an earnings call last month. “And we believe they will continue to pay reasonable prices.”

“Nobody loves fare increases,” JetBlue President Marty St. George added. “But at the end of the day, this is a business where we have to cover our costs.”

When to book holiday 2026 flights

So what does that mean for booking holiday travel in 2026?

It’s pretty simple: Don’t delay.

When should you book Thanksgiving flights by?

Last year, Thanksgiving fares rose with each passing month starting in July, according to Points Path data analyzed by TPG.

The sharpest fare jump happened in mid-September.

When to book by: Based on last year’s pricing trends, we recommend purchasing your Thanksgiving flights as soon as you can — but no later than Labor Day weekend.

When should you book holiday flights by?

As for Christmas and New Year’s? Fares last year started high and stayed high.

While there were some fluctuations, waiting didn’t offer customers much — if any — cost savings.

And holding out for a discount in 2026 is especially risky, experts warn.

“The worst thing people can do this year is wait in hopes prices will come down when they are already elevated,” Katy Nastro, chief spokesperson at the airfare site Going.com, told TPG.

But what if the price does drop?

Of course, the holidays are still months away.

So what do you do if you book now and the price does later come down?

Use a price-tracking tool

There are now AI fare-tracking tools that will help re-book you and save you money if your flight’s price drops after you book. You’ll just pay the company a portion of your savings.

TPG’s Summer Hull went ahead and booked her $500-per-person holiday flights, but is using one of those tools (Junova) to monitor the fare in case it eventually comes down.

“Even though it’s more than I wanted to spend,” she said, “I didn’t feel confident in waiting and risking it gets even more painful.”

TPG’s Katie Genter: How I saved 7,000 points and $31 on upcoming hotel stays

Or, do it yourself

Keep in mind, most airlines will let you change your ticket (or cancel and re-book) after you book your flight.

By doing this, you won’t get a full refund, but you’ll keep the price difference in flight credit you can use for a future booking.

Key tip: Just don’t book a “basic” fare like basic economy! Those tickets typically don’t allow changes, and you’ll usually forfeit a fee if you have to cancel.

Good news if you’re using points

If you’re hoping to use points to fly this holiday season, there’s a way to capture the savings if the award pricing drops after you book.

With most U.S. loyalty programs, you can cancel and get your miles (and taxes and fees) refunded — and then re-book at the lower rate.

Just be mindful when redeeming miles over the holidays: with so many U.S. airlines now pricing redemptions dynamically, award rates tend to spike when fares spike.

You can always consult TPG’s points and miles valuations before booking.

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