It’s halftime, and Brazil are a goal down, facing the humiliating possibility of being knocked out by Japan and not reaching the last 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

What will coach Carlo Ancelotti do? He has plenty of attacking options on the bench, and with Lucas Paquetá being the team’s latest injury, one of them is coming on after halftime. Who will be the first taxi off the rank? It is dynamic striker Endrick, a popular choice.

The minutes tick away, and Brazil draw level. And as they strain for the winner, who will be the second choice? Obviously, there was a clamor for Neymar. And with Brazil getting in plenty of crosses against a relatively small defense, a case could be made for Igor Thiago. But in the end, the choice was Gabriel Martinelli.

No one had seen this coming. What was the thinking? The most logical explanation seemed to be that this would free Vinícius Júnior, who would be able to roam while the new man held down the left flank. Instead, the opposite happened. And with Vinícius stretching the Japan backline on one side and Rayan doing the same on the other, Brazil worked the space for the winner, scored by Martinelli, in the last minute of normal time to win 2-1.

Ancelotti, then, had pulled a rabbit out of the hat. Ninety-nine out of a hundred coaches would have taken Casemiro off at halftime. Brazil’s 34-year-old holding midfielder was beaten all too easily for the Japan goal; he had not been able to impose himself on the match.

He was on a yellow card, and as Brazil pressed, Japan would surely expose him on the break in the second half. But out came Casemiro for the second half. And just after having a header cleared off the line, who nodded Brazil level at the far post? Casemiro.

And sometimes, that is Ancelotti’s genius. With his chewing gum seeming to absorb all of the tension, the Italian coach can keep his head, trust his players and do nothing when doing nothing is the hardest option. But with the World Cup getting serious and Brazil occasionally looking light in midfield, it certainly will be interesting to see what he does with Casemiro.

When he took charge of Brazil just over a year ago, Ancelotti’s first and easiest decision was to bring Casemiro back from 18 months in the international wilderness. The team needed balance and structure. The coach and player had worked successfully together at Real Madrid, and now Casemiro could be an extension of Ancelotti on the pitch.

The move has undoubtedly been a success, most notably because it has brought out the best in Bruno Guimarães. As the South American table makes clear, Brazil were a mess in World Cup qualification, and Guimarães was floundering more than most.

After the last game he played under previous coach Dorival Junior, Guimarães left the field muttering about the need to work harder on ways of playing the ball out of defense. This is now Casemiro’s department. With the roles defined and the structure in place, Guimarães has been freed to run forward, to link up with the attack.

From an overall perspective on the team’s functioning, Casemiro’s recall has clearly worked.

But a vulnerability exists. Ancelotti’s original plan — with four up front and Casemiro and Guimarães in central midfield — ended up being useful in the second half against Japan, when the opponents were pinned back. But to start matches that way is a huge risk.

At the end of May, Brazil played a warm-up game in Rio de Janeiro against Panama. In the first half, with the team near full strength, the midfield duo was bypassed with alarming ease, as Panama managed to play through and around Guimarães and Casemiro. Ancelotti saw the evidence and changed his plans. Paquetá came in as the third man in midfield.

And now Paquetá drops out, possibly for the duration of the competition. The big decision, then, is who will replace him against Norway in New Jersey this Sunday. Will Ancelotti really take the risk of going back to the front four? It seems unlikely. More probable is the inclusion of Danilo Santos, the dynamic left-footed midfielder who has broken into contention this year.

Even so, there is still the question of Casemiro. He will be up against Martin Ødegaard, a wonderfully gifted supply line for the dangerous Erling Haaland.

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This is a key duel — and however well Casemiro responded in the second half against Japan, the vulnerabilities of the first half remain. And because he is on a yellow card, there is an obvious chance of picking up another and missing the quarterfinal because of suspension, just as happened when Brazil were knocked out by Belgium in 2018.

His immediate replacement is Fabinho, another veteran and a midfielder who probably always impressed more with his constructive play than with his defending. Ancelotti might regret not selecting Chelsea’s Andrey Santos, who would supply more lung power.

But curiously, only five midfielders were chosen in the original squad — a clear error that Ancelotti tried to correct when right back Wesley was forced out by injury, and new Manchester United signing Éderson received a late call-up.

And now, Ancelotti will raise an eyebrow and ponder his options: when to do something and when to do nothing, how he can accentuate the strengths of Casemiro and hide the weaknesses, how to strike the balance that he has always seen as the magic ingredient in Brazil’s charge toward World Cup win No. 6.