Stubbornly hot inflation in August could push up the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients, according to a new estimate from the AARP. 

The 2027 COLA is now projected at 3.6%, based on the August Consumer Price Index figures released on Wednesday, according to the advocacy group. AARP had forecast a 3.5% increase a month ago.

Other groups are forecasting a slightly lower COLA, with the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group for older Americans, projecting a 3.5% adjustment, down from its prior estimate of 3.6%.

A benefit increase of 3.6% would represent the biggest annual adjustment in Social Security payments since 2023. The program’s more than 70 million recipients rely on the annual cost-of-living adjustment to ensure their benefits keep up with inflation, although some critics say the measure has failed to offset the price pressures facing older Americans and people with disabilities, including rising healthcare costs.

The average retired worker received $2,071 a month in Social Security benefits as of January, according to the Social Security Administration. That means a 3.6% COLA would increase the average monthly benefit by about $75, raising it to roughly $2,146 a month at the start of 2027. 

The official COLA won’t be announced until next month, when the Social Security Administration will calculate next year’s inflation adjustment based on the July, August and September inflation data. 

The September CPI report will be released on Oct. 14, with the Social Security Administration set to announce the 2027 COLA the same day.