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Mark Carney’s government is already preparing for when quantum computers are ready for scaling, and able to crack the cryptography that protects Canada’s assets and secrets.
Last week, Google announced a breakthrough that sent a ripple through security and intelligence communities world-wide: their new research suggests that quantum computing is moving at an ever-faster pace towards being able to hack into the digital infrastructure that currently protects everything, from our bank accounts to ecommerce platforms, drones, submarines, satellites and energy grids.
Mark Carney’s government is already preparing for when quantum computers are ready for scaling, and able to crack the cryptography that protects Canada’s assets and secrets. Google’s announcement should be read as tea leaves; the pace of quantum research and development is only going to pick up speed. Google’s announcement will be the first of many pushing up the timeline.
For years, the working assumption among policymakers has been that breaking modern cryptography — the mathematical systems protecting everything from financial transactions to classified communications — would require extremely large, complex quantum computers still more than a decade away.
But Google’s research reveals that quantum computers may not need to be as large or as powerful as once thought to threaten the encryption standards that secure our digital world. The early-stage quantum computers we already have are closer to the real deal then we knew.
To be clear, that does not mean the risk is immediate. But it does mean the timeline may be much shorter than governments are currently anticipating and preparing for.
Defence platforms, financial infrastructure, satellites, and industrial control systems can remain in service for decades. Every digital network in deployment today needs to be upgraded.
There is a solution. It’s a timely transition to quantum-safe cryptography, which deploys new encryption algorithms and hardware security modules that generate secure keys. In short, a quantum computer may need just minutes to break the security on our bank accounts and government data bases now. After an upgrade, it would take a quantum computer years to break in.
Federal departments are currently required to prepare plans for migrating to quantum-safe cryptography due this month, April 2026. Transition timelines extend into the next decade. Current federal planning frameworks have generally assumed a transition horizon extending toward 2035.
That may already be too slow, and we can predict that it will get more and more out of sync with evolving development.
This research suggests that meaningful quantum threats could emerge closer to the end of this decade, potentially around 2029. That means timelines built around the mid-2030s risk being too little, too late.
Just this week, the University of Saskatchewan announced the acquisition of the country’s first university-owned, full-stack quantum computer — a major step forward for Canadian research capacity and a sign that quantum capability is moving steadily from theory into operational reality.
Cybersecurity history offers a consistent lesson: threats that appear comfortably distant often arrive faster than expected, while upgrades to infrastructure often take longer than planned.
That gap is where the risk lies.
Canada is a global leader in quantum and has made significant investments in quantum innovation. We already have companies building the cryptographic infrastructure required to secure the next generation of defence systems, financial platforms and critical infrastructure. To ensure the solutions are in hand, ready to be applied to our own networks, we have the opportunity now to ensure the expertise and supply chain for quantum-safe upgrades is sovereign.
The United States, United Kingdom and other nations are investing heavily in scaling both quantum computers and quantum security solutions. Being left behind could mean Canada’s timelines are at the mercy of international trade relationships.
In the face of these threats, quantum-safe cryptography should be viewed as a national infrastructure modernization effort.
Google’s new quantum research should not be interpreted as a crisis. But it should be interpreted as a signal that our margin for delay may be smaller than we thought. This is our canary in the coalmine.
Bruno Couillard is the CEO and co-founder of Crypto4A, a Canadian quantum defence company producing quantum-first, future-proof security platforms to safeguard Canada and the world’s most critical digital systems. He previously served as a telecommunications officer in the Canadian Armed Forces and at the Canadian Communications Security Establishment, Canada’s national cryptologic agency.
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