Gold Steadies as Iran War Impasse Keeps Rate Hike Bets High

(Bloomberg) — Gold steadied as a selloff in bonds eased, even as a lack of progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz pushes traders to price in expectations of interest rate hikes from central banks this year.

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Bullion was trading just below $4,500 an ounce, after falling almost 2% on Tuesday. Price pressures stemming from the Iran war helped fuel a selloff in global bond markets, with Treasury 30-year yields climbing to a level last seen on the brink of the global financial crisis in 2007. The prospect of the Federal Reserve and other central banks keeping rates elevated has weighed on gold, which doesn’t typically bear interest.

President Donald Trump threatened to resume strikes on Iran in the coming days as part of a push to end the war, less than a day after saying he had just called off a US attack. The Republican-led US Senate signaled its opposition to extending the conflict in a procedural vote on Tuesday.

Gold has traded in a narrow range since falling sharply in the early days of the conflict, as investors weigh higher interest rates against the prospect of a high-inflation, low-growth scenario, which should benefit gold, they argue. Bullion is down about 15% since the war erupted.

“The current environment highlights an increasingly important distinction between what traders are focusing on in the short term and what investors continue to monitor over the long term,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank AS, said in a note. Meanwhile, a lack of fresh inflows into exchange-traded funds and volatility indicators point to “subdued participation and a market awaiting a clearer catalyst,” he added.

Silver rebounded as much as 2.5%, after slumping 5% on Monday in a broader risk-off move. It surged to nearly $90 an ounce last Wednesday, and has since fallen about 16%.

Spot gold was flat at $4,475.33 an ounce as of 10:29 a.m. in London. Silver was 2.1% higher at $75.25. Platinum and palladium both gained. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, was unchanged after ending the previous session up 0.4%.