When the US imposed sweeping tariff increases in 2025, most economic forecasters predicted a sharp rise in consumer prices and significant import disruption. Instead, retail prices rose modestly and import-dependent sectors held up. This column uses data for the 50 largest US trading partners to show that foreign exporters absorbed roughly 40–50% of the 2025 US tariff increases through lower export prices – much more than earlier studies suggested. The absorption was highly unequal: dominant suppliers bore the bulk, while smaller ones passed the tariff on almost fully. The aggregate result vindicates optimal tariff theory. It does not mean the tariffs made America better off.



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