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Donald Trump’s first year back in the White House has produced a surge in the number of people in the west and emerging markets who see the US as a threat to their country’s security, according to polling for the Munich Security Conference.

The biggest increase in threat perceptions was in Canada, according to the survey, which was carried out by consultants Kekst CNC for the Munich Security Index. Trump has repeatedly threatened the US’s neighbour with punitive tariffs and even a takeover since returning to power last year. 

Canadians are almost as likely as Chinese people to regard the US as a threat to their country, the poll found.

The polling underscores how the Trump administration has swung a wrecking ball through America’s traditional alliances and alienated opinion in big emerging economies with its aggressive trade policies, warmth towards Russia and pushback against perceived infringements of freedom of speech globally.

Policymakers visiting the conference in the Bavarian capital beginning on Friday are bracing for further displays of US antagonism, although nerves have been calmed by the absence of Trump and US vice-president JD Vance from this year’s event.

“I hope it’s boring,” a European foreign minister told the FT.

The survey questioned 11,099 people in the Group of Seven most advanced economies that are all traditional US allies, and in Brazil, India, China and South Africa.

It was carried out in November, before a US military raid to seize Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and before Trump’s threat of military force against Denmark unless it ceded Greenland to US control, which stunned Washington’s closest security partners.

Other more recent surveys have shown a further loss of trust in America. YouGov European tracker data from last month showed that 84 per cent of Danes now have an unfavourable view of the US, up from 70 per cent in November.

The Munich Security Index data shows that in every country surveyed, there was a net decline in the number of respondents who regard the US as an ally.

Britons remain by the far the most positive about America.

In several countries — including South Africa, India, Italy and Canada — China is viewed as less of a threat than a year ago, even though Beijing last year weaponised the dependencies of its trading partners by imposing far-reaching export controls on critical minerals.

More Indians now regard China as an ally than a threat, a remarkable change given the history of border clashes between the two Asian giants.

Japanese respondents are most fearful of China. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in November said that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could become a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, meriting its military intervention.

Japan aside, respondents in all other countries including the US thought a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would pose less of a risk to the world than in late 2024.

At the same time concerns rose in India, Brazil and the UK about a potential war between China and the US, and the global impact of any such conflict.

The first year of Trump’s second term at the White House has also scrambled perceptions of top risks, with concern over enemy disinformation campaigns and trade wars shooting up the ranking in all countries.

However, concern over climate change and extreme weather events has fallen slightly in advanced economies as worries over trade and disinformation climbed the agenda. They remain the top issues in aggregate for Brazil, India, China and South Africa.