Speculating over a possible cabinet shuffle is one of Ottawa’s most beloved pastimes.

It seems every few months the city is abuzz with rumours of movement in the front bench. In recent weeks, the speculation has hit a fever pitch, though Prime Minister Mark Carney has yet to make a move.

But in the spirit of reading the tea leaves, iPolitics is looking at who might get the call up to cabinet should the PM make a change, with a specific focus on backbench MPs that fit the mould of a “Carney Liberal”: a background in business or finance, a moderate political leaning and a record free of controversy.

Here’s a few names that fit the bill, starting with some backbenchers that could get a promotion.

Pauline Rochefort

Like Carney, the MP for Nipissing—Timiskaming is a former banking executive.

Before her entry into politics, Rochefort had a decades-long career with the Ottawa-based Business Development Bank, a Crown corporation mandated to use financing tools to create and grow Canadian businesses. As a vice-president with the bank, she said she helped expand the branch network and worked closely with the high tech industry in the in the capital city, which had garnered the moniker of Silicon Valley North.

From there, she joined the Canadian Wood Council as president and CEO, where she played a leadership role in managing the dispute with the Americans over softwood lumber, a persistent trade irritant that is still a sore spot for both countries.

READ MORE: Former BDC executive Pauline Rochefort enters the House with a focus on ‘supercharging’ the economy

After her stint with the council, Rochefort returned to northeastern Ontario, working as a professor of strategy at North Bay’s Nipissing University, and as the university’s executive director for external relations and advancement. At Nipissing, she started a Biomass Innovation Centre, taking advantage of the then-provincial Liberal government’s push to grow the green economy. Her work at the school helped the conversion of the Atikokan generation station from coal to biomass.

She’s also a two-term mayor of East Ferris, a township of roughly 5,000 located just outside of North Bay.

Rochefort currently serves as the parliamentary secretary to the secretary of state for rural development and sits on the operations and estimates committee.

Vince Gasparro

The MP for Eglinton-Lawrence has a unique resume brimming with finance and political experience.

He holds an undergrad degree from York as well as a Master’s from the London School of Economics and an MBA from Villanova.

Gasparro spent most of his career working on Bay Street, headlined by stints with Lynx Capital and as managing director of Roynat Capital and VanCity, the largest community credit union in Canada. In all three roles, he was a major figure in the firm’s sustainable or green financing team, a sector the current PM knows all too well, having served as the UN’s special envoy for climate action and finance.

Gasparro also worked in sustainable finance for the Six Nations of the Grand River Development Corporation and served on the board of the Canada Infrastructure Bank, Toronto Community Housing and newspaper giant Postmedia, which attracted media attention owing to him being one of the few Liberals in top positions at the company.

READ MORE: From Bay Street to Wellington Street — Vince Gasparro enters Parliament armed with decades of experience in finance, politics

His tenure in politics is also similarly high-profile, serving in the office of then-prime minister Paul Martin on the Ontario desk in the early 2000s, and later as then-Toronto mayor John Tory’s principal secretary from 2018 to 2020. He also ran for the Ontario Liberals in the same riding in the 2025 provincial election, losing narrowly despite the PCs’ province-wide surge in support.

Most recently, Gasparro was spotted making the rounds at the Canadian investment summit in Toronto on behalf of the government, and delivered a speech in the House on the feds’ sweeping economic bill, C-39.

“We need to build faster. We need to build with certainty. And we need to build for the long term,” he said.

“That is how we create good long-term paying jobs, attract private investment, strengthen our economy, and make Canada more resilient.”

Gasparro currently serves as the parliamentary secretary to the secretary of state for combatting crime.

Giovanna Mingarelli

The MP for Prescott—Russell—Cumberland is another Liberal member that brings fuses a strong political resume with a background in business.

Mingarelli got her start in politics in the early 2000s, rising up the ranks in the Liberals to work in the office of the aforementioned Paul Martin. She would leave the Hill soon after, citing a desire to build her skillset before running for office.

READ MORE: Giovanna Mingarelli makes good on a decades-old promise, returning to the Hill as an MP

She then moved to New York City to work in a tech startup before disembarking again for Birmingham in the United Kingdom, where she handled social media for a television startup. She returned to Canada in 2010 to join Equal Voice, running the organization’s communications channels.

After leaving Equal Voice, Mingarelli founded her own firm, M&C Consulting, which provided communications strategies and marketing campaigns to governments, nonprofits and companies wanting to build up their social media platforms. Her client list included the United Nations, the World Health Organization and the federal government.

She also launched another firm to build social impact technology, working with the likes of the City of Ottawa, the National Capital Commission, and Tourism Ottawa, as well as conducting pilot projects for Airbnb and Beavertails.

She would eventually leave the country to join her husband, Brandon A. Lee, in San Francisco when he was appointed Canada’s consul general to Silicon Valley and Hawaii in 2015. After a few years in California, the couple relocated to Seattle after then-prime minister Justin Trudeau named him as the consul general for the Pacific Northwest and Alaska.

The couple returned to Canada in 2022 and Mingarelli joined the board of directors of Invest Ottawa, the Women’s History Project, and the Clarence-Rockland Chamber of Commerce.

Mingarelli sits on the official languages and House and procedure affairs committees.

Corey Hogan

As the sole Liberal MP in Calgary, Hogan has become a prominent voice defending the government’s position on building a new pipeline to the West Coast. It’s also owing to his position as one of the parliamentary secretaries to the energy and natural resources minister Tim Hodgson.

While Hodgson has joined Carney in talking up Canadian energy on a global stage, Hogan has often been tasked with handling domestic audiences, capably handling pressing questions from reporters about the Liberals’ pivot on energy and climate issues.

A former university executive and communications specialist, Hogan has an MBA from the University of Western Ontario and was a top provincial bureaucrat in Alberta, serving as a deputy minister under premiers from two vastly different political backgrounds – NDPer Rachel Notley and Conservative Jason Kenney.

He won a close race in his riding of Calgary Confederation in 2025, and was seen as a strong candidate for cabinet. However, Carney selected Edmonton MP Eleanor Olszewski to join his front-bench, though it wouldn’t be surprising if he welcomed another Albertan, including new recruit Matt Jeneroux.