The federal government pitched its new tailpipe standards as a way to make fuel-efficient cars more accessible to Canadians. But two groups advocating for low-emission travel say the rules would put the country short of its goal — and ultimately leave most Canadians at the mercy of high gas prices.

The rules are meant to replace the Trudeau-era electric vehicle sales mandate. Aside from increasing the availability of EVs, the government said there would be an upside for anyone who still buys a new gas-powered car: better fuel economy. 

The regulations, known as vehicle emissions standards, set averages for tailpipe exhaust from new vehicles. Automakers can comply by producing more EVs and redesigning gas-powered cars to be more efficient.

But two independent analyses suggest the regulations likely won’t lead to 75 per cent of all new car sales being electric by 2035.

Prime Minister Mark Carney set that target in February, when he said the government would be releasing new vehicle exhaust standards moving from “172 grams per mile of driving to about 74 grams per mile.”

A new report from a non-profit that works to provide analysis to environmental regulators, the International Council on Clean Transportation, found this would lead to a 62 to 68 per cent EV adoption rate in 2035.

The council is calling for the federal government to adopt a stronger vehicle emissions standard in an era of persistent higher gas prices. 

“These are complicated regulations but ultimately what they deliver are savings in the pockets of drivers,” said one of the report’s authors, Leticia Pineda, who is advocating for more robust standards for vehicle tailpipe emissions.

“What they do is they incentivize the most efficient vehicles and also electric vehicles.” 

WATCH | EV interest growing elsewhere:

What can Canada learn from Mexico about Chinese EVs?

Beginning this week, Chinese electric vehicle makers can apply to import EVs to Canada at a reduced tariff rate. CBC Radio’s The Current was in Mexico City recently to test drive a Chinese EV. The vehicles have been available in Mexico for years.

Similar to those findings, the Canadian clean energy think-tank Pembina Institute’s analysis recommends the government adopt a standard of 40 grams per mile to meet the 75 per cent EV sales goal by 2035. 

The institute found a standard of 74 grams per mile is projected to result in less than 50 per cent battery-powered electric vehicles sales by 2035. It finds that a stronger standard reduces carbon emissions, leads to cleaner air and leaves drivers less vulnerable to the global oil price shocks. 

In a statement to CBC News, Environment and Climate Change Canada said it is “confident” that the 2035 target will be met.

“The standards announced earlier this year provide a flexible approach for the auto industry, incentivizing innovation and emissions reductions while reflecting market realities which protect Canadian manufacturers and jobs,” it said.

Proponents of higher fuel-efficiency standards point to automakers sitting on compliance credits, which they could use to keep making vehicles with the same pollution levels if the tailpipe standards aren’t made more strict.

“We know that fuel costs are the primary drives of the affordability crisis,” said Adam Thorn, the director of clean growth at the Pembina Institute. 

An organization representing North America’s big three automakers — Ford, GM and Stellantis — is taking issue with the analyses, especially as Canadian carmakers are under “immense pressure” from U.S. automotive tariffs. 

“We’re urging the government to ensure what comes forward is reasonable and achievable,” said Brian Kingston, the president and CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association.

The association had pushed for the Trudeau-era EV sales mandate to be repealed.

Kingston added the exhaust standards being proposed by the Pembina Institute and the International Council on Clean Transportation would make all vehicles produced in Canada “unsellable” in the domestic market, in part due to high costs.

He also said they would complicate selling the vehicles in the U.S.