When a country’s economy goes into a short-term or long-term period of decline, it usually has a negative effect on the national government’s popularity. People lose a certain amount of confidence in its policies, programs and the decision-making process. The same negative reaction will also happen to the national leader, who represents the public face of the government. Individuals and communities will lose a certain amount of faith in his or her ability to keep the country’s economic engine on a positive track.

Everything I listed in the opening paragraph should be obvious to Loonie Politics readers. Painfully obvious, in fact. Which makes it rather bizarre that Canada has been doing the exact opposite as of late.

Here’s a pertinent example.

“A Nanos Research Group poll for Bloomberg News shows 60% of Canadians think Carney has done a very good or good job of handling the economy,” reporters Erik Hertzberg and Mario Baker Ramirez wrote on July 9. “That compares with 24% who think he’s done a poor or very poor job. Another 14% rate his performance as average, and 2% were unsure.” These results seem to indicate a “robust endorsement of Carney’s economic stewardship.”

Yet, this shouldn’t be the case. “That’s despite the fact that since he was elected, real gross domestic product has shrunk by 0.05%,” Hertzberg and Ramirez pointed out. This is “the worst debut for a Canadian prime minister in at least 63 years.”

Why are Canadians ignoring this decline in GDP? Nik Nanos, the public opinion and research company’s founder and chief data scientist, suggested to Bloomberg “the uncertainty in the Canada-US relationship – largely driven by Trump’s negotiation strategy – has likely diverted attention from the Carney government to the Trump administration.” He believes that “at this time they’re getting a pass on the state of Canada’s finances and stewardship of the economy.”

Could this actually be true? Let’s juxtapose the data and analysis with a recent poll by, as it happens, Nanos Research.

The Weekly Nanos Tracking released on August 4 showed “the Liberals leading federal ballot support at 47.1%, followed by the Conservatives at 27.9% and the NDP at 12.7%.” It also revealed “Carney remains the most frequently selected choice for prime minister at 56.0%,” with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre a distant second at 18.4%. As well, “Canadians continue to identify jobs and the economy as the country’s top issue, with concern about the Canada-U.S. relationship also remaining prominent.”

What does this mean? In spite of Carney’s first year as PM having led to the worst decline in over six decades of Canada’s GDP, which refers to our total economic output, many Canadians have rewarded him and his government with increased confidence and popular support. The Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives by nearly 20%, and would comfortably win a majority government if an election were held today.

If you think this is a logical and rational response to a significant economic decline, you need to give your head a serious shake.

Yes, the Canadian economy could potentially turn around. An RBC Economic report released on July 13 noted our country “is on track to rebound in Q2, driven by resilient household spending, recovering business investment and expanding net trade.” RBC also pointed out they’re “tracking stronger GDP growth in Q2 at 2.2% from 1.7% previously.”

That’s all well and good, but tracking a potential economic rebound doesn’t necessarily mean that every fact and figure is set in stone. Even if these predictions and indicators come to fruition, it still doesn’t explain why Canadians flocked to a Liberal government that had a less-than-stellar 2025 fiscal year and mediocre Q1 in 2026.

Meanwhile, there are valid concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump and the difficult state of Canada-U.S. relations. It’s been a frustrating situation at the best of times. As I and others have pointed out over the years, Canada shares in the blame and Carney has made things much worse in recent months. The fact that a not-so-insignificant number of Canadians have chosen to ignore the obvious about these two matters speaks volumes about their ignorance and arrogance.

It’s also worth pointing out that Carney has been aided by an uptick in Conservative in-fighting as well as Poilievre’s low approval rating as a party leader. The multitude of advantages he had against former Liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau haven’t materialized with the current PM. While there are many ill-informed and irrational analyses related to Poilievre’s leadership, there’s more than enough time for Canadians to sit down and figure out exactly who he is and what he stands for. Whether or not this will happen is a separate matter.

Based on Carney’s poor political and economic track record to date, as well as the significant drop in GDP during his first year as a national leader, it should happen. Many Canadians need to open their eyes and ears once more – or for the very first time.

Michael Taube, a longtime newspaper columnist and political commentator, was a speechwriter for former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper.