Barring a surprise last-minute deal to end — or at least dial back — the months-long cross-border trade war, at exactly one minute past midnight on Tuesday morning, Canada is poised to roll out sweeping new counter-tariffs targeting billions of dollars worth of American goods — and, by doing so, will usher in a new — and, as impossible as it may seem, even less predictable — phase in the ongoing standoff.

Announced just days after Prime Minister Mark Carney pulled out of the high-stakes negotiations meant to avert a fresh wave of U.S. tariffs, the new levies aim to “match the latest U.S. tariffs on a dollar-for-dollar basis,” and the “tariff rate per product will vary and match those imposed by the Trump administration, ranging from 15 to 50 per cent,”as  iPolitics’ Marco Vigliotti explained at the time.

“(The) counter tariffs will apply to sectors most targeted by American tariffs such as ‘steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics,’” he noted.

In addition to the planned new tariffs, the government also unveiled “expanded supports for businesses and workers impacted by the trade dispute,” including “a $1.5 billion increase in funding for the regional tariff initiative, which provides financial support for businesses to adapt to the latest trade disruptions, an additional $500 million in liquidity to the Business Development Bank to offer low-cost loans and $2 billion to stand up the Canada Strong Diversification Fund, which will provide financial support for tariff-impacted companies.”

Meanwhile, a trio of current cabinet members — Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab, Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree and Secretary of State for Seniors Stephanie McLean — will “highlight the extension of the federal fuel excise tax relief on gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuels” during separate appearances in Halifax, Brantford and Nanaimo, respectively. (Tuesday a.m.)

Later this week, the prime minister and his front bench team will gather in Banff for the traditional pre-sitting cabinet retreat — or, as the release from Carney’s office puts it, “cabinet planning forum” — to “take stock of progress and outline the next actions in the government’s plan,” as well as “hear from leading experts on the economy, Indigenous partnerships, and global affairs.” (Thursday through Friday)

Citing “multiple sources,” CTV News reported last week that ministers “are being asked to report directly to (Carney) this week and next on progress they’ve made in their files, including key performance indicators and what was laid out in their mandate letter” ahead of the anticipated retreat.

“Sources say some ministers are unaccustomed to this type of ‘report card’ metric and are worried about the appearance of a lack of progress, and what implications that may have for their department in the budget, describing the process as ‘more than a little chaotic,’” the network noted.

“Two sources close to ministers tell CTV News some staff are ‘panicked,’ and there is a widespread sentiment that this kind of practice is further evidence of the prime minister running government like a CEO. A third source close to a minister said ministerial staff think the progress reports could help inform a cabinet shuffle, though one government source tells CTV News one isn’t planned before next week.”

In a separate dispatch filed last Friday, Politico claimed that “shuffle chatter is at a fever pitch, with some in the Liberal caucus speculating that it could happen as early as today” — Spoiler alert: It did not —  and “likely to be small.”

It is, of course, still theoretically possible that a handful of ministers could be summoned to Rideau Hall imminent retreat, but by the time the Labour Day long weekend wrapped up, the brief but intense speculation over a potential lineup change appeared to have died down, at least for the moment.

NDP caucus

While still several — seven, to be exact — members shy of the minimum threshold required to be recognized as an official party caucus, the five New Democrats elected under the orange banner, along with their now firmly installed leader, Avi Lewis, are set to descend on Toronto for three days of closed-door planning sessions that, as per the advisory, will “focus on tackling the cost-of-living crisis and protecting Canadians from the fallout from the trade war.” (Tuesday through Thursday)

Lewis and his team “will also meet with Torontonians to hear directly about the affordability challenges facing people in the city (and) offer the party’s solutions for challenging Mark Carney’s corporate playbook and rebuilding the economy for the 99 per cent,” according to the notice.

Also on the agenda: A “closed-to-media” roundtable with “Toronto-based unions and organizations fighting to make life more affordable” (Tuesday a.m.), while as per the updated advisory, the town hall on “fighting the trade war for the many, not the money,” which had initially been on deck for Wednesday evening, has been “postponed until further notice.”

Hitting the post-Labour Day ministerial circuit:

• As flagged by iPolitics’ very own Aya Dufour last week, Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon is set to start his week in Norman Wells, N.W.T., where, alongside Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Rebecca Alty, Northwest Territories Deputy Premier Caroline Wawzonek, Norman Wells Mayor Frank Pope and other officials, he’s set to unveil what his office is billing as a “major investment to advance a nation-building infrastructure project,” which, as per a source “with knowledge of the matter” who spoke to iPolitics last week, will include “millions of dollars in funding for the Mackenzie Highway project.” (Tuesday a.m.)
• Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald kicks off a two-day mini-tour of southern Alberta with a morning visit to Calgary-based Hydragreens Produce Ltd., to highlight fresh federal support to “advance Canada’s controlled environment agriculture sector and drive sustainable agricultural technology.” (Tuesday a.m.)
• Meanwhile, Secretary of State for Defence Procurement Stephen Fuhr holds a roundtable with representatives of the “Alberta defence industry,” as well as the Business Council of Alberta. (Tuesday a.m.)
• Secretary of State for Rural Development Buckley Belanger is booked in for back-to-back events in Regina, starting with a mid-morning stop at Regina-based agriculture equipment manufacturer Degelman Industries to share the details of new federal support earmarked for “businesses and workers” throughout the province ahead of an afternoon infrastructure funding reveal at the RCMP Heritage Centre. (Tuesday)
• Back in Toronto, Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin holds an on-camera briefing to “provide an update on Canada’s National Water Security Strategy,” which, as per the launch notice earlier this year, aims to “address freshwater-related threats and opportunities in a way that protects freshwater ecosystems and secures water for communities and the economy, now and for future generations,” as well as “projects to protect the Great Lakes.” (Wednesday a.m.)
• Rounding out the roster, Fisheries Minister Joanne Thompson teams up with Newfoundland and Labrador’s environment minister, Andrea Barbour, in downtown St. John’s to promote what the advisory describes as “an important milestone to advance development more efficiently” throughout the province. (Tuesday p.m.)

Also on the radar: Conservative MP Dean Allison will serve as chair during four days of testimony from “Canadians injured by Covid-19 vaccines,” as well as those “who have lost loved ones following vaccination,” which, according to the Covid Testimony Association, “will be broadcast live from Parliament Hill,” and “represents the first time that Canadian lawmakers will be listening to Canadians about their experiences with the Covid-19 vaccines.” (Tuesday through Saturday)