President Trump clearly wants to end the war in Iran. First, he tried scare tactics. But his ultimatums proved flexible and his threats to wipe out a civilization empty (at least so far). Now he’s trying to inflict financial pain on the Iranian leadership. But his blockade and U.S. Navy escorts for ships through the Strait of Hormuz aren’t faring much better.

Trump’s inability to force the Islamic republic to do what he wants, from opening the Strait of Hormuz to giving up its nuclear stockpile, points to a larger truth: Maybe America doesn’t understand Iran. Today my colleague Steven Erlanger, our chief diplomatic correspondent, writes about why there may be no easy way to end this war.

President Trump keeps looking for the silver bullet that will help him declare victory in Iran.

It started with his late March demand that the country “FULLY OPEN” the Strait of Hormuz — its closure has sent global energy and fertilizer prices spiking — or face the destruction of its power plants.

When that didn’t work, he escalated, threatening to wipe out “a whole civilization” should Iran not comply.

When that didn’t work, he bet on a blockade of Iranian shipping, which he hoped could cause enough pain for the regime that it might finally relinquish its hold on the waterway.

And as that hasn’t borne fruit, this week, in a new effort to break Iran’s control over the strait, Trump announced a plan, with few details, to help guide stranded ships out of the passage.

It’s not clear that this will work either.

Iran responded with some missiles and drones. Given the risks, most tankers are unlikely to dare crossing the strait for now.

Trump’s conviction that more economic or even military pressure will bring about Iran’s capitulation is deeply flawed, officials and analysts say. They say it is a misreading of the Islamic republic’s strategy, psychology and capability for adaptation.

The Iranian government believes that it has the upper hand for now. It thinks it can withstand the new economic pressure, as it has in the past. And — crucially — it thinks it can do so longer than Trump can tolerate rising global and American gasoline, energy and fertilizer prices.

The war has become a test of wills between Iran and the U.S. But for Iran, the stakes are higher — which, in a standoff, gives it an advantage.

A test of wills

By putting a blockade in place, Trump is effectively betting that Iran’s capacity to store the oil it’s pumping, but cannot export, will soon run out.

“If they don’t get their oil moving, their whole oil infrastructure is going to explode,” Trump said late last month, adding: “They say they only have about three days left before that happens.”

But that assertion — already proven wrong — might be relying on a miscalculation.

Oil experts believe that Iran has at least several weeks before it must stop pumping, which can cause significant damage to its infrastructure. But Iran, which was exporting some 1.81 million barrels of oil a day in April, can reduce its production while continuing to store oil in empty or older tankers, which can hold an estimated 2 million barrels each, shipping some of it by road and rail to Pakistan. During Trump’s first term, Iran ramped production down to about 200,000 barrels a day without significant damage to its oil infrastructure.

“Iran is not particularly close to even starting” to shut down its wells, said Brett Erickson of Obsidian Risk Advisors. Sanctions and the blockade will move the needle, but “there is no feasible scenario by which they will produce the necessary result in a feasible timeline” for Trump. Even if the war ends today, Erickson said, “it will be multiple months before things return to normal.”

One little turn of the screw away?

Experts are dubious that time will work in Trump’s favor.

“We can certainly do more damage to the Iranian economy, but they have withstood more pressure than any other economy in history, and that hasn’t produced the collapse of the regime or more reasonable positions,” said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran specialist and the director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution.

“I think President Trump doesn’t really understand what drives the Iranians,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told me. “They don’t make decisions based on their G.D.P., because if so, they would have done a deal years ago.”

If anything, Iran’s positions have hardened over the course of the war. But Trump’s tactics have not changed. “At every point when pressure has not delivered the intended result, he’s sought a new tool of coercion which he believed would magically conjure victory,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group. “He always believes he’s one little turn of the screw away.”

It’s not that the U.S. strategies aren’t inflicting pain. They are. But Iran is such an authoritarian state that the kind of political drivers that might push compromise don’t exist, Maloney said.

Trump, on the other hand, is facing midterm elections in the fall. And there is only so much pain voters will take.

Read my full story here.

Other developments in the war:

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. naval effort that began on Monday was a temporary defensive effort. “We’re not looking for a fight,” he told reporters.

• Some 1,600 ships remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, with roughly 20,000 seafarers on board. A U.S.-flagged ship exited under U.S. protection on Monday but no ships transited the strait yesterday.

• Follow our live updates.

Saher Alghorra, a Palestinian photographer and Times contributor, won a Pulitzer Prize for his work covering the Gaza conflict. Take a look at his photos.

Top of The World

The most clicked link in your newsletter yesterday was the Tucker Carlson interview.

SPORTS

Tennis: Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff said that stars would eventually boycott Grand Slams over prize money disputes.

World Cup: New Jersey is one of the most in-demand regions for training bases during the tournament. Morocco, Haiti, Brazil and Senegal will set up there.

Over the next two weeks, a glowing blue-green comet, believed to have originated at the edge of the solar system in an icy region called the Oort cloud, will swing over New Zealand, Australia and South Africa. The comet is a slow one and may not return for another 170,000 years. So stargazers should check it out now.

Ilhan Sami Çomak was serving a life sentence in a Turkish maximum security prison when he met Ipek Ozel, the woman who would become his life partner.

In the mid-1990s, Çomak was accused of belonging to a Kurdish separatist group and arrested, a charge he still denies. He spent the next 30 years in jail. There, he read widely and discovered his own voice, writing tender poems to stave off despair. His works inspired Ozel, a volunteer at the prison, to become his literary champion. But through letters, their connection grew into something deeper. Read more about their unlikely love story.

AROUND THE WORLD

No camera, no actors: A.I. is upending film in China

Until recently, making hit microdramas — soapy, short-form, made-for-mobile shows that have become wildly popular in China — meant hiring actors, renting sets and spending weeks filming and editing. Now, thanks to artificial intelligence, some Chinese companies are churning them out for $30 a minute with no cameras, no crews and no human performers.

The surge in A.I.-generated dramas has prompted an outcry in China. Actors say work has dried up, and both celebrities and ordinary people have threatened legal action after discovering their likenesses in the A.I. shows.

My colleagues spoke to people in China’s entertainment industry. Read how A.I. has changed their lives.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Horchata is a Latin American beverage made by soaking nuts and grains in water and then seasoning the mixture with sugar and spices. This Mexican recipe is made with rice, cinnamon and almonds. Want a caffeine kick? Try the dirty version.