When the Milwaukee Bucks were soliciting offers for Giannis Antetokounmpo at the trade deadline, the Portland Trail Blazers were viewed, at the very least, as an ideal facilitator to such a deal. They control Milwaukee’s first-round picks in 2028, 2029 and 2030, so any team hoping to deal with the Bucks would probably like to deal with Portland first in order to secure those picks for Milwaukee. As negotiations dragged on, the Blazers themselves reportedly entered the fray. No deal was struck, but with new owner Tom Dundon taking over, it seems as though the Blazers are eager to get back into the mix.

According to Jake Fischer, “the Blazers are expected to emerge as a prime trade suitor for Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo.” Antetokounmpo’s fate in Milwaukee has not yet been settled, but with Bucks owner Wes Edens saying that Milwaukee would either extend Antetokounmpo or trade him, the ball is now in his court. If he ultimately elects not to re-sign, the sweepstakes officially begin.

Resetting the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade market: Why 18 teams are plausible suitors

Sam Quinn

There is an obvious hangup here, though, and it relates to Antetokounmpo’s expiring contract. We don’t know how willing he would be to re-sign with Portland, or any team, and giving up a haul for a player who might leave after a year is an enormous risk. If Antetokounmpo directs the proceedings toward another team, Portland may or may not be willing to risk bringing him in anyway. This snag has been well-known since February, and it factors into just about every star trade in the modern NBA.

However, there is one specific way in which these negotiations will differ from previous deals for superstars. Because of the NBA’s impending reforms to the draft lottery, those Milwaukee picks suddenly aren’t as valuable as they looked a few months ago.

In the past, there were no more valuable draft picks to a team than its own. Those are the only picks you can theoretically control. If you have the worst record in the NBA, under the current system, you can draft no lower than No. 5. This was the primary appeal to the Bucks of a possible trade with Portland. Getting those picks back would have meant regaining their ability to tank. The Brooklyn Nets just did this with the Houston Rockets back in 2024, turning a bounty of deep future picks into control of their own selections in 2025 and 2026 back from the James Harden trade.

But in the new world, in which no team will have better than 8.1% odds at the No. 1 pick and the three worst teams will enter the lottery in the so-called “relegation zone” that comes with worse odds, regaining control of your own picks just isn’t as powerful. You can’t aggressively tank for top picks when your odds are that low. The proposed lottery only has a floor of the top 12 for the bottom three teams, and everyone else can pick as low as No. 16. Milwaukee would still have some control over those picks. The Bucks could work to ensure they land between No. 4 and No. 10 to maximize their odds. But that’s a far trickier tank to plan than just losing as many games as possible, and even if it was successfully executed, it wouldn’t create nearly as much expected value as a traditional tank.

The Blazers have their most promising outlook in years… as long as their new owner is willing to pay for it

Sam Quinn

Now, does this rule out a Portland trade? Of course not. The Blazers could still put a very compelling package on the table. Those Bucks picks could be a part of it, and other assets Portland has suddenly look more valuable. Take the 2028 Orlando pick the Blazers got on draft night. With the Magic hovering around the middle of a suddenly crowded Eastern Conference, that pick has more upside moving forward than it did when Portland acquired it. Portland’s own picks are arguably more valuable for the same reason, and the Blazers have a wealth of young players to offer Milwaukee as well.

If Portland can secure a commitment for an extension, or if it is willing to trade for Antetokounmpo without one, the Blazers have the tools to potentially pull this off. It just isn’t the slam dunk it might have been at the deadline. Those Bucks picks are no longer golden bullets in these negotiations. Milwaukee might value veteran star power for specific picks more, or it might value draft picks from other teams nearly as much. Given the sheer number of surprising early exits this postseason, the bidding is probably going to be wild, so every minimal advantage matters. Portland still has one, it just isn’t nearly as big as it looked a few months ago.