The Big 12 sent eight schools to the 2026 NCAA Tournament — among them Arizona, which advanced all the way to the Final Four in Indianapolis after winning the league title by multiple games and conference tournament in dramatic fashion. It was a great year for the conference, all things considered, especially after Big 12 alums AJ Dybantsa (BYU) and Darryn Peterson (Kansas) went first and second in the 2026 NBA Draft.

Is the best yet to come? Perhaps.

For what it’s worth, three of the top eight teams in the preseason rankings at BartTorvik.com are in the Big 12. And it is those three teams — specifically Arizona, Houston and Kansas — that top our Big 12 projections after a panel of CBS Sports writers and analysts submitted ballots predicting how things will unfold.

In my mind, the most interesting story is at Kansas, where Bill Self enters Year 24 in Lawrence trying to return to the Sweet 16 for the first time since he guided the Jayhawks to his second national championship in 2022. To help him do it, the Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame coach has enrolled Tyran Stokes, the top-ranked prospect in the Class of 2026 and favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NBA Draft. An 18th Big 12 regular-season title is definitely possible. But Arizona and Houston — not to mention Texas Tech and Iowa State — are obvious hurdles in KU’s path to securing another trophy.

ACC expert picks: 2026-27 projected order of finish, preseason predictions, top players to watch

Cameron Salerno

Here is everything you need to know about the Big 12 — including player of the year predictions, conference standings and the best players in the league.

CBS Sports Big 12 Preseason Player/Freshman of Year 

Tyran Stokes | G/F | Kansas

Pistons star Cade Cunningham won 2021 Big 12 Player of the Year honors in his only season of college basketball at Oklahoma State. Since then, the award has been given out five more times, and yet Cunningham remains the last freshman to win it. But that should change this season thanks to Tyran Stokes’ enrollment at Kansas. The 6-foot-8 guard is the top prospect from the Class of 2026 and leading candidate to be the first pick of the 2027 NBA Draft. If Stokes meets those expectations, he should become in June just the third Kansas player to go No. 1 overall — joining Danny Manning (1988) and Andrew Wiggins (2014).

Four more players to watch

Caleb Holt | SG | Arizona

If Stokes doesn’t win Big 12 Freshman of the Year honors, it might be Caleb Holt’s award to grab. The 6-5 guard is ranked third in the Class of 2026, according to 247Sports, behind only Stokes and Arkansas freshman Jordan Smith. Holt is expected to start in Arizona’s backcourt next to North Carolina transfer Derek Dixon. For Arizona to make back-to-back Final Fours under Tommy Lloyd, the Wildcats will need Holt to impact things on both ends of the court, especially defensively, where his 81-inch wingspan is a huge advantage on the perimeter.

JT Toppin | PF | Texas Tech

JT Toppin was the 2025 Big 12 Player of the Year while averaging 18.2 points and 9.4 rebounds as a sophomore at Texas Tech. Then, as a junior last season, the 6-9 forward averaged more points (21.8) and more rebounds (10.8), meaning he would’ve possibly won the award again if not for him tearing the ACL in his right knee during a Feb. 17 loss to Arizona State. Surgery came next. Rehab followed. And though Toppin is not expected to start the season, all indications are that he will play at some point — and possibly sooner than most anticipated when he went down and missed the Red Raiders’ final eight games.

Joseph Tugler | PF | Houston

Joseph Tugler has never been Houston’s leading scorer or leading rebounder. He might never be either of those things. But what he has been, for three straight years now, is an important rotation piece for a Houston team that’s finished in the top four at KenPom.com every year he’s been enrolled. Tugler was on the Big 12 All-Freshman Team in 2024 and the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year in 2025. He’s started 69 games the past two seasons and should play in a fourth straight Sweet 16 in March.

Rob Wright | PG | BYU

When Rob Wright entered the transfer portal, and Kentucky pursued him with all that money, the 6-1 guard seemed on the verge of enrolling in a third school in three years after spending his first two seasons at Baylor and BYU, respectively. He even took a visit to Lexington. But shortly after doing so, Wright recommitted to BYU in what doubled as a big recruiting win for third-year Cougars coach Kevin Young. Wright averaged 18.1 points and 4.6 assists last season. He’s the biggest reason why BYU is projected to make the NCAA Tournament for the fourth straight year.

Big 12 predicted order of finish

1. Arizona 

Breakdown: Tommy Lloyd, last season, became the first coach to guide Arizona to the Final Four since Naismith Memorial Hall of Famer Lute Olson did it in 2001. In the process, the 51-year-old former Gonzaga assistant was pursued by North Carolina to replace Hubert Davis. But, ultimately, Lloyd stayed put, and another trip to the sport’s last weekend in 2027 isn’t some far-fetched dream. 

Would it have been better if Koa Peat returned to school like a lot of evaluators suggested he should? Yes, of course. But with two starters back in Mo Krivas and Ivan Kharchenkov, and a top-10 recruiting class highlighted by five-star freshman Caleb Holt, four-star freshman Cameron Holmes and North Carolina transfer Derek Dixon, the Wildcats are still talented enough to win a second consecutive outright Big 12 championship. That’s why they’re the pick here. And, for what it’s worth, they’re also ranked second nationally at BartTorvik.com. So, yeah, on paper, strong team.

2. Houston

Breakdown: The Cougars have made seven straight trips to the Sweet 16, two of which resulted in appearances in the Final Four. (In a related note, Kelvin Sampson not already being in the Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame makes no sense to me.) Will Houston make an eighth straight Sweet 16? If that’s the question this preseason, my answer would be a thumbs up. 

Yes, the Cougars lost a lot — specifically their top four scorers, most notably top-10 pick Kingston Flemings and three-year starter Emanuel Sharp. But among the things the Cougars didn’t lose is defensive star Joseph Tugler — and their coach. And that combination, along with returning rotation pieces Mercy Miller and Chase McCarty, plus LSU transfer Dedan Thomas Jr., should be enough to keep Houston nationally relevant in what will be Sampson’s 13th year at the school he moved from the American to the Big 12 with absolutely no issues at all.

3. Kansas

Breakdown: Relative to its own ridiculous standard established over the previous two decades under Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame coach Bill Self, Kansas has been down lately. The Jayhawks have finished tied for fifth (2024), sixth (2025) and tied for third (2026) in the Big 12 in the past three seasons. In the 20 years that preceded that stretch, Kansas never finished lower than outright-third in the Big 12 while winning two national championships, 17 Big 12 regular-season titles and nine Big 12 Tournament championships. 

Needless to write, Self could really use a bounce-back year — either to re-establish his place in the league or to allow the 63 year-old to exit the sport, as they say, on a high note. This projection suggests our panel of writers and analysts believe that a bounce-back season is on the way thanks largely to the enrollment of five-star freshman Tyran Stokes and return of double-digit scorer Tre White.

4. Texas Tech

Breakdown: When will JT Toppin be ready to go? That’s the biggest question connected to the Red Raiders this preseason. As noted above, the 2025 Big 12 Player of the Year tore his ACL in February — and nobody has indicated he’ll be cleared in advance of Texas Tech’s season-opener against Jackson State. 

So when will we see him? If it’s early, this projection might be too low for the Red Raiders. If it’s late, it might be too high. Either way, Darrion Williams is among this season’s boomerang-transfers. He spent last year at NC State after helping Texas Tech advance to the Elite Eight of the 2025 NCAA Tournament as the team’s second-leading scorer, behind only Toppin. Bottom line, if Toppin returns early, and Williams is as good as he’s already shown himself to be, don’t rule out the Red Raiders winning their first outright Big 12 regular-season championship — ever.

5. Iowa State 

Breakdown: At some point, the money Kentucky was offering to proven college basketball players was going to downgrade a program somewhere. Iowa State became a victim of this when three-year starter, and last season’s leading scorer, Milan Momcilovic, committed to UK. The price tag was reportedly around $6 million. Iowa State was in no position to counter-offer. But that doesn’t mean the Cyclones are going to miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time under sixth-year coach TJ Otzelberger. The opposite is likely true. 

The offseason shoulder-injury to Killyan Toure is a bummer. But the NCAA’s new five-for-five rule, combined with a favorable judge, has given Tamin Lipsey a fifth year of eligibility. The 6-1 guard has started 137 games for an Iowa State program that’s advanced in the NCAA Tournament every season he’s played. The bet here is that the Cyclones will do it again, in part because Lipsey is in position to do it again.

6. BYU 

Breakdown: AJ Dybantsa led the sport in scoring last season before becoming the No. 1 pick of the 2026 NBA Draft. He was awesome. (And there’s no reason to believe that sentence won’t be typed a lot for the next decade, at least.) But do you know who else was really good at BYU last season? Rob Wright! The 6-1 guard averaged 18.1 points and 4.6 assists for a BYU team that was ranked 16th in the AP poll when Richie Saunders, the Cougars’ third-leading scorer, went down with a torn ACL. With Dybantsa and Saunders off to the NBA, Wright considered leaving the Big 12; he actually visited Kentucky. But not long after meeting with UK about a possible transfer, Wright recommitted to the Cougars. As a result, the projection here is now that the Montverde Academy alum will have BYU in the NCAA Tournament, expanded as it is, for the fourth time in four years. 

Wright should be BYU’s best player — but if he isn’t, keep an eye on Bruce Branch III. He’s a 6-7 forward ranked sixth in the Class of 2026, according to 247Sports. The trio of Wright, Kentucky transfer Collin Chandler and Branch creates a high ceiling for the Cougars.

7. Baylor 

Breakdown: Scott Drew leading the Bears to the national championship in 2021 is the thing that pushed his career from amazing to hall-of-fame worthy. Nobody has ever taken any program from that far down to that far up. It’s movie-worthy. But, undeniably, last season was rough. Baylor played 18 conference games and lost 12 of them. Consequently, the Bears missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018. 

But the projection here is that Baylor will be back in the best bracket come March, in part because of the enrollment of Dylan Mingo, a five-star combo guard from the Class of 2026 who initially committed to North Carolina but pulled back after the school fired Hubert Davis. Also; keep an eye on Isaac Celiscar. The 6-6 forward averaged 13.2 points and 6.3 rebounds last season for Yale, a team coached by James Jones, the four-time Ivy League Coach of the Year.

8. Cincinnati

Breakdown: Bringing an alum back to guide a college basketball program is, like anything else, a hit-or-miss proposition. Sometimes it’s awesome like Jon Scheyer at Duke. Other times it’s less awesome like Patrick Ewing at Georgetown. Jerrod Calhoun is the latest to take a shot. He graduated from Cincinnati in 2004 and quickly embarked on a coaching career that’s taken him everywhere from Fairmont State to Youngstown State and eventually to Utah State, where Calhoun guided the Aggies to 55 victories over the past two seasons. 

Whether Calhoun can win 25-plus games for the third straight year is unclear. But the projection here is that he’ll have the Bearcats in the NCAA Tournament — though that might ultimately be determined by whether former Utah State standout MJ Collins gets eligible. Right now, he’s not.

9. West Virginia 

Breakdown: The goal at West Virginia is not to win a secondary postseason tournament like the College Basketball Crown Championship — but once you’re in it, you might as well. And the Mountaineers winning it by recording victories over power-conference opponents like Stanford, Creighton and Oklahoma put a nice button on Ross Hodge’s first season at WVU. 

Is a trip to the NCAA Tournament the next step? It could be — especially after Brenen Lorient and Javan Buchanan got favorable rulings in court that will allow them to play for the Mountaineers this season. Both averaged more than 11 points per game last season — Lorient at West Virginia, Buchanan at Boise State.

10. Oklahoma State

Breakdown: Oklahoma State’s fast-paced style led to six different Cowboys averaging double-figures last season — but only Kanye Clary is back. So Steve Lutz’s third team in Stillwater will look different from his last. There’s still talent in the program, though, after the Cowboys enrolled a top-10 recruiting class highlighted by McDonald’s All-American Latrell Allmond, North Carolina transfer Luka Bogavac and UCF transfer Jordan Burks. 

Brian Thornton, the Big 12’s Chief Basketball Officer, is on record stating that the goal for his league is to put 10 teams in the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever this season — and then annually. If that happens, based on the projection here, the Cowboys could help the league make history.

11. TCU 

Breakdown: Jamie Dixon enters Year 11 at his alma mater having made the NCAA Tournament in four of the previous five seasons. He’s proved to be a terrific hire for a program that used to struggle in Conference USA in an earlier era under previous coaches. 

Dixon’s Horned Frogs are returning two of their top three scorers — namely Xavier Edmonds and Micah Robinson — from a team that won 23 games and beat Ohio State in the NCAA Tournament. That’s among the reasons why I personally have TCU four spots higher than this and projected to make the NCAA Tournament again. But our panel of voters is slightly lower on the Horned Frogs. So if Dixon needs bulletin board material, consider this the place to get it.

12. Arizona State

Breakdown: When Matt Norlander and I asked roughly 100 coaches to name the best high-major hire of the 2026 cycle in our annual Candid Coaches series, the leading vote-getter was Randy Bennett at Arizona State. There were other reasonable options — among them Jerrod Calhoun at Cincinnati or Michael Malone at North Carolina. But it’s hard to argue against any vote for Bennett given what he did in 25 years at Saint Mary’s. Despite limited resources in a mid-major conference, Bennett guided the Gaels to seven West Coast Conference regular-season championships and 12 NCAA Tournament appearances. It was a Hall of Fame worthy run. 

Paulius Murauskas, a 6-8 forward from Lithuania, followed Bennett from Saint Mary’s to Arizona State after leading the Gaels in scoring last season. That’s obviously great. But cracking the top 10 of this super-competitive league should still be tough in Bennett’s first season back coaching in the state in which he was born and raised.

13. UCF 

Breakdown: Johnny Dawkins’ Knights exceeded expectations last season and made the NCAA Tournament, prompting the school to reward its 63 year-old coach with a three-year contract extension. His seat is suddenly cooler. But returning to the NCAA Tournament this season, even an expanded version of it, won’t be easy after UCF lost each of its top four scorers — most notably Riley Kugel and Themus Fulks. If it happens, though, Dior Johnson will likely be a big reason. He’s back in Orlando, where he played his freshman year, after spending last season at Tarleton State. Johnson averaged 24.0 points in 20 contests last season for the WAC program run by former Kentucky coach Billy Gillispie. Only AJ Dybantsa, the BYU star who was the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, averaged more.

14. Kansas State

Breakdown: The Jerome Tang era at KSU started with a bang and ended with a settlement. It featured a trip to the 2023 Elite Eight and a 1-11 record in the Big 12 to start his fourth season that compelled the school to remove the man who was named the Big 12 Coach of the Year just three years earlier. Now it’s Casey Alexander’s program to run. And though some Kansas State fans have noted the former Belmont coach’s lack of postseason success as an area of concern, perhaps the focus should be on how he guided the Bruins to three league championships in seven seasons while winning two conference Coach of the Year awards. Put another way, Alexander has a track-record of competently running a college basketball program. Obviously, that alone doesn’t guarantee success in the Big 12. But if KSU supporters are looking for something to believe in, that’s where they should point their eyes while hoping a transfer class highlighted by former Colorado State standout Brandon Rechsteiner somehow out-performs expectations.

15. Colorado

Breakdown: Headlines emerged last March detailing how Colorado planned to increase its financial commitment to Tad Boyle’s program after the 63-year-old coach finished 16th and tied for 11th in back-to-back years in the Big 12 — and then lost his leading scorer, Isaiah Johnson, to the transfer portal. It was a necessary adjustment in an ever-changing sport. But the projection here still isn’t positive. 

Getting Barrington Hargress to return is a plus after the 6-1 guard averaged 14.1 points and 4.5 assists last season. But, just like Johnson, double-digit scorers Sebastian Rancik and Bangot Dak both transferred out of Colorado — to Florida State and Vanderbilt, respectively — leaving Boyle with a mostly new-look roster that isn’t expected to compete for a trip to the NCAA Tournament.

16. Utah 

Breakdown: With traditional recruiting ties no longer that important, hiring coaches straight off of NBA staffs has become more normal than it once was. Alex Jensen is among the latest examples. When Utah hired the former Viewmont High star who was Utah’s Mr. Basketball in 1994 before becoming a standout for the Utes under Rich Majerus, Jensen had not worked on a college campus since 2011. 

If the 50 year-old former Coach of the Year in what is now known as the G League eventually proves to be a successful college coach, it’s looking like it won’t happen quickly. Jensen went 2-16 in the Big 12 last season in Year 1 at his alma mater while losing 13 of his final 14 contests. The fact that you’re reading these words this far down suggests Year 2 might be better — but probably not much better, if at all, with a mostly remade-roster unlikely to compete once the calendar flips to January.

Big 12 expert picks