Bettors seeking to cash in on the weekend’s snowstorm flocked to prediction markets to wager millions on how much snow would ultimately accumulate across the U.S., with more than $6 million bet on New York City’s totals alone. 

Online prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi accepted bets for expected snowfall in different locales across the U.S. For example, more than $1.2 million was wagered on a market at Polymarket, titled “How many inches of snow in NYC this weekend? (Jan 24-26)”. 

Based on bets placed through Monday, the implied consensus snowfall for New York City’s total was 11 inches. The official outcome has yet to be determined, and bettors won’t cash out — or notch losses — until totals for the three days between Jan. 24 and Jan. 26 are released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, according to the market’s description on the site.

Polymarket said the market will rely on snowfall data from NOAA’s “New Snow (IN)” daily figures for the New York–Central Park area.

The most popular wager for the Big Apple was in the 10- to 12-inch range. Shares predicting snowfall within that bracket were trading at 90 cents each Monday morning.

The top bettor had purchased more than 8,100 shares, anticipating this outcome at 61 cents apiece. The same bettor had also wagered more than $1,000 on 12 to 14 inches of snowfall. Both bets remain active, meaning they have not yet been resolved because an outcome has not been determined. 

Bettors also wagered on snowfall in Washington, D.C., and bet which cities would see snow this weekend, including Atlanta and Seattle. 

Kalshi’s NYC snowfall wager

On Kalshi, another online prediction market, bettors wagered a cumulative seven figures on a similar climate-related question: “Snow in New York City from Jan 24-26?”

More than $5 million had been wagered on Kalshi as of Monday morning, with the market presuming a 99% chance of more than 10 inches of accumulation.

The market, which closes at 11:59 p.m. Eastern time, will rely on data from the National Weather Service to determine which bets pay out, according to the site.

Prediction markets are forums where individuals can purchase and sell shares in the outcomes of a wide variety of future events, including climate events, sports games, political contests and more. The sites track wagers in real-time and provide insights into consumers’ and investors’ mindsets.

Online prediction markets also gained attention earlier this month, when an anonymous trader earned more than $463,000 by accurately predicting that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be captured. 

The timing of the speculative bet raised questions about the bettor’s identity and potential access to inside information ahead of the U.S. operation to seize Maduro, experts told CBS News. 

Experts say such markets are only lightly regulated and are susceptible to manipulation, while the outcome of an event like a snowstorm is harder to control.