Big picture – Can Sri Lanka expose India’s middle order?
It’s a rematch of the 2023 Asian Games final as India meet Sri Lanka with gold on the line once again. Both sides have comfortably made the final. India brushed aside Japan and Bangladesh in the quarter-finals and semi-finals respectively, while Sri Lanka did the same against Malaysia and Pakistan.
There is plenty of familiarity too, with the sides having met less than ten days ago in the Women’s Asia Cup final. India cruised to a 72-run victory that day and will again start as favourites to defend their Asian Games gold.
If Sri Lanka are to find a weakness in this India batting line-up, it may lie in the middle order. Harmanpreet Kaur scored 40 in the semi-final but has struggled for fluency of late, while G Kamalini and Bharti Fulmali have returned underwhelming numbers despite getting opportunities higher up the order. Getting to them, though, means finding a way past Smriti Mandhana and Shafali Verma, both of whom have form and recent centuries on their side, while Richa Ghosh remains capable of changing an innings quickly down the order.
Chamari Athapaththu remains Sri Lanka’s biggest match-winner, but she has received more support from the top order recently, with Hasini Perera contributing a 26-ball 42 against Pakistan, Kavisha Dilhari a 27-ball 44* against Malaysia and Harshitha Samarawickrama quick cameos in both games. How Sri Lanka handle India’s spinners could be central to the final, particularly with Deepti Sharma and Shree Charani among the wickets, and before that there is Nandani Sharma’s new-ball threat to negotiate.
Sri Lanka know what happens when India are allowed to dictate a game. Their best chance in Nagoya may come from putting India under pressure early on, and whether that’s with bat or ball will depend on which way the coin falls at the toss.
Should the game be a washout, like the men’s final in 2023 was, the higher-seeded team (India) will take the gold medal.
India WWWWW (last five completed T20Is)
Sri Lanka WWLWW
The two teams have met 32 times in T20Is, with India winning 26 games, Sri Lanka winning five, and one match having no result. Sri Lanka have lost their last seven T20Is against India and won only once in their last 11 meetings.
In the spotlight: Athapaththu and Shafali
The two most destructive batters on either side could have an outsize influence on the final. Athapaththu has smacked 63 and 83 not out in her two outings at these Asian Games while also returning figures of 2 for 3 and 1 for 30. Shafali had scores of 64 and 68 in her last two outings before the Asian Games, and has followed those up with unbeaten scores of 40, in a chase of 57 against Japan, and 100 against Bangladesh. Given the dimensions of the ground in Nisshin, either could quickly take the final away from the opposition.
Both teams have fully fit squads, and fielded their first-choice XIs in the semi-finals.
India (probable): 1 Smriti Mandhana, 2 Shafali Verma, 3 G Kamalini, 4 Harmanpreet Kaur (capt), 5 Richa Ghosh (wk), 6 Bharti Fulmali, 7 Deepti Sharma, 8 Shreyanka Patil, 9 Kranti Gaud, 10 N Shree Charani, 11 Nandani Sharma.
Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Imesha Dulani, 2 Chamari Athapaththu (capt), 3 Hasini Perera, 4 Kavisha Dilhari, 5 Harshitha Samarawickrama, 6 Hansima Karunaratne, 7 Kaushini Nuthyangana (wk), 8 Rashmika Sewwandi, 9 Mithali Ayodhya, 10 Chamudi Praboda, 11 Sugandika Kumari.
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