The Liberals are bracing for another byelection in a Toronto riding in the coming months and there’s an emerging debate within the party on whether there should be a competitive nomination race.

For the April byelections, Prime Minister Mark Carney appointed high-profile candidates, tapping former Ontario NDP deputy leader Doly Begum in Scarborough Southwest and physician and advocate Danielle Martin in University-Rosedale.

With Nate Erskine-Smith set to resign his Beaches-East York seat to turn to provincial politics, it’s unclear if there will be a nomination race there or if the party will appoint a candidate.

READ MORE: Race is on for Erskine-Smith’s seat

The chair of the Beaches-East York Liberal riding association told iPolitics there’s been no indication from the party on how it will handle the candidate selection process.

Depending on when Erskine-Smith resigns, a byelection could be pushed off until early 2026. But doing so would create complications as the Liberals have a slim majority in the House.

Also, there’s already impending byelections in B.C. — with Jonathan Wilkinson set to resign to become Canada’s ambassador to the European Union — and Quebec, thanks to NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice planning on jumping to provincial politics.

As iPolitics exclusively reported on Wednesday, lawyer and former senior staffer Claire Seaborn is considering running for the Liberal nomination in Beaches-East York.

Seaborn is an environmental and climate change lawyer who advises on complex energy and mining projects at Torys. She served as chief of staff to Wilkinson when he was natural resources minister.

Liberal sources say she hasn’t made a decision just yet, but would be a strong candidate.

A Liberal MP, who spoke to iPolitics on the condition of anonymity to share their concerns freely, said there’s calls from some in the party for the leader to stop appointing candidates and hold an open nomination race in Beaches-East York.

The MP said it’s unclear if there’s much traction in that push, but personally didn’t believe how a candidate is selected impacts the result of a vote.

When reached for comment, the federal Liberal party commended Erskine-Smith for his time in office, but offered no details on plans for the nomination.

“There is currently no vacancy in the House of Commons, and the nomination in Beaches—East York will move forward in accordance with the party’s nomination rules in due time,” party spokesperson Maggie Morris said in an email.

Aside from Seaborn, housing advocate, mediator and professor Summer Nudel has shown interest in running for the Liberal nomination, launching a campaign website.

She previously signalled that she’d run for the seat in 2024, after Erskine-Smith initially announced he wouldn’t seek re-election. He rescinded that decision after he was named housing minister in the December 2024 cabinet shuffle.

Erskine-Smith was left out of cabinet after Carney shuffled his front bench following the April 2025 election.

Nudel told iPolitics on Thursday that she doesn’t have a sense of whether the nomination will go to a vote of local party members, but she’s ready to campaign if a race is called.

“It’s early days. It’s no secret that I have been wanting to put my hat in the ring, and I I’ve been public about it,” she said, noting that she’s lived in the riding since 2014 and has spent most of her career working in Toronto’s east end.

Nudel is currently a senior advisor to the commissioner of housing equity at the Toronto Community Housing. She was actually part of the initial team when the commissioner’s office was launched.

“I feel equipped and ready to take this on, because I’ve got the experience as an advocate. I know how to get things done collaboratively to achieve significant results,” she said of running for the Liberal nomination.

Nudel added that she supports whatever decision the prime minister makes when it comes to the process of selecting a candidate in Beaches-East York.

“I trust the prime minister’s judgment, and I’m ready for for a nomination contest if he calls one.”

Tanveer Shahnawaz, a longtime staffer in Erskine-Smith’s office, also mounted a bid for the seat back in 2024, but it’s unclear if he’d run again. He’s helping with Erskine-Smith’s Ontario Liberal leadership campaign.

Nathaniel Arfin, the co-founder of the New Leaf Liberals, a grassroots group calling for renewal in the Ontario Liberals, said he supports a nomination race because “there are multiple names who are interested and… that deserves to be played out.”

A supporter of Erskine-Smith, Arfin said the party should always opt for a nomination race unless there’s one candidate that’s clearly ahead of the pack or there’s an issue with resources, which he stressed couldn’t be claimed in this case.

“I don’t think the Liberal Party of Canada can try to claim they don’t have the resources to run a safe, proper and fully democratic election or nomination contest.”

Then there’s the question of the riding itself.

READ MORE: Next wave of byelections taking shape, with Boulerice’s seat expected to be competitive

Beaches-East York is seen as one of the most progressive ridings in Ontario, and the Liberals could face a strong challenge from the NDP. Pollster David Valentin, who runs Liaison Strategies, told iPolitics earlier this month that only nearby Parkdale-High Park offered a better shot for the New Democrats to pick up a seat in Ontario.

Because of this, a Liberal source warned that Carney couldn’t afford to appoint someone who doesn’t have strong progressive credentials.

A Mainstreet Research poll in February found that NDP Leader Avi Lewis would have a good shot at winning the seat, but Lewis has ruled out making a run.

Looking elsewhere, two other byelections are expected to be called soon. NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice says he’ll resign his Montreal seat to run in the Quebec provincial election this fall.

The Liberals and Bloc Quebecois are seen as the favourites in that riding, though the NDP may mount a strong challenge to keep its only seat east of Manitoba.

Moving west, Liberal MP Jonathan Wilkinson will resign in the coming weeks after accepting an appointment to serve as Canada’s next ambassador to the European Union.

Like Boulerice, the exact timing of his resignation from the House remains unclear, though it’s expected to happen during the upcoming summer recess.

Wilkinson was first elected to the House in 2015, comfortably winning the riding then known as North Vancouver with nearly 57 per cent of the vote.

He won re-election with narrower margins in 2019 and 2021, but his vote share surged to nearly 60 per cent in last April’s election, where the riding was renamed North Vancouver-Capilano.

Despite the recent Liberal dominance, the riding was previously held by Conservative Andrew Saxton from 2008 to 2015.

Capturing the largely affluent City of North Vancouver, it’s expected the Conservatives would emerge as the Liberals’ top foe in a byelection in the riding.

The NDP has never finished higher than third since its inception in 1988.

Valentin said the Liberals would be wise to call the byelection as soon as possible for Wilkinson’s seat as the party is riding high in the polls and could be hurt politically in the Lower Mainland if the Carney government gives a green light to a new oil pipeline from Alberta.

Welcome back to Adjournment Proceedings, our weekly long read series. We publish a new edition every Friday, though we released today’s story a day early. 

Missed a week? Take a look through our archives here.