Amazon’s decision to suspend operations with 21 Air following this month’s deadly runway overrun in Miami is unlikely to materially disrupt its overall delivery operation. But replacing the carrier’s remaining Amazon-dedicated aircraft could prove considerably more complicated than simply shifting those planes’ schedules to another operator.

The e-commerce giant confirmed the decision Sunday, but did not say how long the pause will last or whether it will ultimately terminate its relationship with the carrier. 21 Air has been flying for Amazon since November 2024.

According to Tom Crabtree, managing director at Transport Research Advisory, 21 Air represented eight of the 106 freighter aircraft in Amazon’s controlled network as of the end of August. With one aircraft destroyed in the Miami crash, Amazon is effectively taking seven aircraft out of its network while the suspension remains in place.

That represents less than 7 percent of Amazon’s fleet, but the aircraft themselves are not necessarily interchangeable.

“Getting eight replacement 767-300BCF/BDSFs is neither easy nor quick in a tight freighter aircraft market,” Crabtree said. The online marketplace can increase flying with other subcontracted carriers or charter additional capacity, he said, although the latter could become expensive heading into air cargo’s peak season starting this month.

Amazon may not need to source new aircraft if it permanently ends its relationship with 21 Air. Amazon controls the aircraft operated by 21 Air on its behalf, although the underlying ownership and leasing arrangements vary by freighter. That means the 767s could potentially remain in Amazon’s network under a different operator.

It could take six to nine months for those aircraft to be fully redeployed to another operator, estimates Derek Lossing, principal advisor at Cirrus Global Advisors.

“If we assume the total contract is canceled and Amazon needs to redeploy the seven [surviving] aircraft, a best case scenario is all seven aircraft are running in mid-Q3 next year,” Lossing told Sourcing Journal. “It would be close to a year to get the full fleet ported over.”

Air Transport Services Group (ATSG), which operates Amazon aircraft through Air Transport International and ABX Air, would be the likely recipient of the physical aircraft, Lossing said. But transferring aircraft to another operator requires adapting them to that carrier’s operating specifications and hiring enough pilots to fly them, he said.

Jonathan Colehower, managing director of global operations and supply chain at UST, similarly expects Amazon’s other air partners to take on much of the displaced volume, but estimates that fully absorbing 21 Air’s cargo could take six to eight weeks.

That suggests a two-stage disruption: Amazon can likely stabilize the network relatively quickly, but restoring the exact capacity and routing configuration previously provided by 21 Air could take substantially longer.

“There are structural constraints that will also prevent a seamless transition away from Air 21,” said Colehower. “Aircraft type, routes, maintenance locations and crew availability will each represent substantial problems and switching costs for Amazon.”

The company’s multi-carrier model gives it several levers to pull. Alongside 21 Air, Amazon Air’s network includes other partners such as Sun Country Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, Cargojet, ASL and other direct air carrier partners.

In the immediate term, Amazon can shift some domestic flights to other commercial cargo partners.

“Some of the goods flying domestically on routes like Miami-Cincinnati can be often fulfilled from other Amazon fulfillment centers or flown on other carriers, like UPS,” said Lossing. “Or rather than the customer being offered one-day delivery, they might see a two-day checkout at time of purchase if they have to use a truck to connect volumes.”

The more difficult problem to solve is international deliveries, with 21 Air operating routes into Latin American markets such as Puerto Rico, Colombia, the Dominican Republic and Ecuador where air freight plays a more important role. Those lanes cannot be replaced by moving another Amazon aircraft onto the schedule overnight.

“Running daily service internationally takes months of planning,” Lossing said.

Colehower also pointed to broader capacity constraints in the air freight market.

“Demand is growing faster than air cargo capacity,” Colehower said, citing data from Xeneta. “During the first half of 2026, global air cargo demand increased by around 4 percent, while available capacity expanded by only around 1 percent.”

Lossing does not expect the 21 Air suspension to materially alter Amazon Air’s broader growth trajectory. Even with dozens of aircraft shuttling hundreds of thousands of packages a day, only a small percentage of Amazon’s total package volume moves by air—and an even smaller percentage moves on the aircraft operated by 21 Air.

The crash and subsequent suspension could, however, prompt Amazon to revisit how much control it wants over the operation of its air fleet. Amazon already owns some aircraft, introducing its first factory-built Boeing 767 freighter last month as part of a move that includes three new 767-300Fs.

But Lossing cautioned against assuming that expanded aircraft ownership correlates with better operational control.

“The real question is, should Amazon be in the business of flying these aircraft?” Lossing said.

Moving pilots onto Amazon’s payroll would not automatically eliminate the operational risks that come with running a cargo airline, he added. Amazon’s contracted carriers operate under the same FAA Part 121 regulatory framework, regardless of whether the pilot is employed by the tech titan or an outside carrier.