The leader of Alberta’s main separatist group is organizing to force either a leadership review of Premier Danielle Smith, or for her United Conservative Party to demand a different referendum question than the one she’s put forth, he told CBC News on Tuesday.

Mitch Sylvestre, CEO of Alberta Prosperity Project, also led the Stay Free Alberta group that filed a separatist petition this month to force a clear independence question on ballots, although an Alberta judge has quashed it.

Sylvestre expressed frustration last week after Smith announced that courts prevented her from putting a clear stay-or-leave question to Albertans. Instead, she promised an Oct. 19 referendum with two options: for Alberta to remain a Canadian province, or to start a legal process toward a binding secession referendum later — and Smith said she’s squarely on the pro-remain side.

Many fellow separatists are also disillusioned with the premier, Sylvestre said in an interview. He believes Smith’s popularity among her base has taken a major hit, and is nowhere near the 91.5 per cent support she notched in her last UCP leadership review in 2024.

“If there was a leadership review for her in the next two weeks … I would be surprised if she got her 70 per cent,” Sylvestre said, referring to a target level that typically makes a party leader feel secure in their job.

“As a matter of fact, I would be surprised if she got 60.”

In addition to his organizing for separatism, Sylvestre is also president of a UCP riding association in northeast Alberta.

He’s consulting with allies and backers about a few potential actions in response to Smith’s question.

If Sylvestre can get the backing of 21 more of the UCP’s 87 riding associations, he can force the party to hold a special general meeting this summer or fall, like the one that let members vote on former premier Jason Kenney’s leadership in 2022.

Kenney received support from 52 per cent of United Conservatives — technically enough for him to stay on, but he concluded that wasn’t nearly enough of a mandate and stepped down.

But Sylvestre said he’s considering options other than a special leadership review of Smith.

“It may not be on leadership. It may be on the [referendum] question,” he said. He’s “50-50” on those two potential routes, he added.

It’s not clear that Smith’s party could directly force her hand to alter the separation referendum question, which is a decision of Smith’s cabinet.

Another option, Sylvestre said, would be to force party members to pass a resolution that makes the UCP explicitly pro-separatist.

“If a large majority of members of the party want to make the UCP an independence party for six months, we could do that,” he said.

Polling has shown that while the general Alberta public overwhelmingly opposes secession, a majority of UCP supporters would vote in favour of independence.

UCP to stay neutral

Rob Smith, the party’s president, has declared the party will stay neutral on October’s referendum, given the sharp disagreement within the UCP membership. That puts the governing party at odds with the stated position of the premier, her cabinet and her caucus, which advocate for the “remain” option.

While Jeffrey Rath, the chief lawyer for Stay Free Alberta, said online that the premier has “lost the moral authority to lead,” the party president disagrees and said grassroots United Conservatives back her compromise question.

“When Jeff Rath makes a claim like that, I would say the only person who truly believes that is Jeff Rath and maybe a couple dozen other people,” said Rob Smith, who is not related to Danielle Smith.

Jason Lavigne, a pro-separatist online broadcaster and speaker, has taken umbrage with Rath’s rhetoric, including some that has been aimed at Lavigne himself.

But he said there is much backlash within the movement toward the premier because of her unclear referendum question and her federalist advocacy.

“There’s certainly frustration growing,” Lavigne said in an interview with CBC News.

He expects that if party activists force a review vote on Smith’s leadership, the result would be worse than she got in 2024, but there won’t be enough opposition to derail her.

“That might be a good thing to go ahead and quell those concerns and keep us focused on the next part of the path, which is to get to that referendum,” Lavigne said.

Sylvestre told CBC News he intends to declare his next steps in early June, and then will mobilize Stay Free petition canvassers to back his actions. 

“We have this wonderful problem of having thousands and thousands of people to put to work,” he said. “I’m already seeing an anger that I thought I would never, ever see.”

Rath has said on social media this week that Sylvestre “would make an awesome interim premier” to help push the province toward becoming an independent country.

Asked about that, Sylvestre said it’s a “compliment,” but not a role he’d entertain as a 71-year-old retired owner of a sporting goods store.

What he would like to do, Sylvestre added, is formally serve on the transition team if a successful secession vote lets Alberta break free from Canada.

“An ideal position for me in a new government would be a senator,” he said.