If frontier AI models can be used to develop their next models, this may lead to an ‘intelligence explosion’ and give a large boost to technological advancement. This column develops a framework for understanding how AI may transform the economy through new feedback loops. It shows that the potential for explosive growth depends on the labour share, the returns to research effort, and the share of automated tasks in each sector, and that the threshold may be surprisingly low. Bottlenecks in tasks that remain human, physical constraints on compute, and the pace of automation will shape whether these dynamics materialise.



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