When will the knives come out for Naheed Nenshi? 

The NDP is not the Conservatives, even the united ones out here in Alberta, and historically New Democrats have been more tolerant of their leaders’ failings than Conservatives have been of theirs. Still, there’s a point at which something’s gotta give. 

It’s easy to be forgiving when it’s a foregone conclusion that the only victory you’re likely to achieve come election night is a moral one. You’d think the fact the NDP forms the Opposition with sufficient seats to be a credible “government in waiting,” as Opposition parties are supposed to be, would change that calculation, at least a bit. 

The poll for the CBC released by Janet Brown Opinion Research yesterday certainly suggests that, as has been said in this space on numerous occasions before, whatever else you can say about the predicament in which the NDP finds itself, its leader is simply not connecting with Alberta’s public. 

The poll shows the United Conservative Party led by Danielle Smith continuing to hold its popularity with Alberta supporters, and the NDP under Mr. Nenshi slipping badly. Worse from the NDP’s perspective, the CBC’s Jennifer Keiller wrote, the new poll “suggests the UCP would likely win an even stronger majority than it boasts now, if an election were to be held today.”

Ms. Brown has a reputation as being the pollster with the best handle on what happens in Alberta – and whether or not that’s fully deserved, she certainly has a good track record of calling these things right. So it would be extremely foolish to deny that her conclusions are probably right this time too. Indeed, they ring true to anyone who has been observing the NDP flounder, and that includes a lot of NDP supporters. 

Sooner or later someone other than this blog has to ask if Mr. Nenshi is the person best suited for his job, given the policy disaster Ms. Smith’s government is wreaking on Alberta, especially in health care – which other polling suggests Alberta voters don’t approve of. 

As I wrote on April 14, “if Albertans don’t like what the UCP is doing but still favour Ms. Smith over Mr. Nenshi by a significant margin, the obvious conclusion is that the biggest problem faced by the NDP right now is its leader.”

That seems even more obvious now in light of these poll results. Given the plans the UCP has for Alberta – up to and including the possibility of separation from Canada – you have to think they’ll call an early election as fast as they can while they’re still on a roll and sufficient numbers of Albertans are still fooled by Ms. Smith’s sovereign-Alberta-in-a-united-Canada schtick. 

If you want more evidence, the CBC story goes on to say, “perhaps more remarkably, the most popular political leader in the province appears to be a Liberal.” To wit: Prime Minister Mark Carney. 

There’s nothing remarkable about this, of course. Plenty of Albertans want to support an effective Canadian leader and, say what you will about his very conservative policy preferences, Mr. Carney is that. No one can credibly claim that Mr. Carney’s policy inclination is likely to be bad for the fossil fuel industry, although some Alberta politicians will surely try.

A lot of Albertans have obviously concluded that Mr. Carney is strong enough a leader that we get along with a dose of Rouge à Ottawa, Bleu à Québec out here in Wild Rose Country. 

This may be a dangerous assumption, but it’s clear that Mr. Nenshi is absolutely failing to deliver the message that it might be – probably because for some reason he’s not even trying. 

As some Alberta Einstein has surely realized, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. 

Mr. Nenshi obviously isn’t going to change. Maybe the Opposition needs to. It would be interesting to know what Rakhi Pancholi, the NDP’s deputy leader, is thinking about these days. 

Update: An explanation, of sorts, from Rick Wilson’s ministry

Unsurprisingly, Mental Health and Addiction Minister Rick Wilson wasn’t available yesterday to explain his claim about the Albertans using supervised drug consumption sites that “I’ve actually seen them collapse and die right in front of me.”

This was disappointing. Inquiring minds wanted to know how Mr. Wilson had managed to see something with his own eyes that has never happened in Alberta or anywhere else in Canada. 

Now we have an explanation of a sort in a statement pried out of the minister’s office by journalist Sean Amato. “To clarify the Minister’s comments,” said the statement he received, “drug consumption sites keep people trapped in addiction. When people are injecting and then collapsing, it appears as though they are dying. Severe addiction is robbing people of a meaningful life. Recovery-oriented services are helping people find hope and a better life.” 

Putting aside the obvious claims about the effectiveness of the UCP’s heavily promoted “Alberta recovery model,” which is the subject of intense debate in expert circles, does this mean Mr. Wilson observed someone collapsing and concluded they were dying? 

Did this actually happen? The minister still needs to find the courage to step up to the microphone and explain what he actually saw on his site visit, and why he concluded someone had actually died.