A downward GDP revision complicates a favorite White House talking point


New government data released Thursday showed that the US economy grew more slowly during the first quarter of 2026 than previously estimated.

The Commerce Department revised its gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for January to March of this year and found that the US economy rose by 1.6% during that stretch at an inflation and seasonally adjusted annual rate.

It was a marked downward revision after a previous release had estimated that first quarter growth was 2% during that stretch.

The change forced an immediate tweak in White House messaging.

On Wednesday, during a Cabinet meeting, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent touted US GDP growth and cited a range of figures.

“Real GDP has risen 2.7% over the past four quarters,” Bessent said, adding that “the Atlanta Fed GDP now is predicting 4.3% for this quarter.”

But the revision quickly forced adjustments just one day later when Bessent appeared at a White House briefing on Thursday afternoon.

“We’ve had sustained and resilient GDP growth: real GDP has risen 2.6% over the past four quarters,” Bessent said, adding that “Atlanta Fed’s GDP now predicts 3.8% for this quarter.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent takes questions during a press conference at the White House on May 28. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent takes questions during a press conference at the White House on May 28. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

The White House continues to laud what it calls a healthy and growing US economy, but two weaker quarters of economic growth complicate that narrative.

The GDP grew at a just 0.5% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, a number that was attributed at the time to a government shutdown.

Trump officials often promised then that a rebound would be in the offing in early 2026 once that overhang was removed.

Gross domestic product is the broadest measure of the goods and services produced across the US, and Thursday’s downward revision, according to the Commerce Department, was partly due to a lower estimate for inventory investment, as well as estimates of consumer spending on services like healthcare being revised lower.

It also comes after months of Trump and his team promising outsized growth.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick vowed recently that “the $30 trillion US economy can grow 4%, 5%, and under President Trump, you’re going to see it grow 6%.”

Trump often said on the campaign trail — and since returning to office — that his economic agenda would lead to a GDP of 4% to 6% per year.

But real GDP growth seen during Trump’s second term so far — measured between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 — has so far seen a slower rate of growth, around 2.5%.

Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.

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