dailynewsnblog
Each week, I’ll publish two film-room previews: one focusing on the offense and one on the defense. These are primarily film-based, focusing on the schemes, tendencies, and matchups that could shape Sunday’s game, with all statistics coming from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. I also record a video version for Patreon, where I break down the plays in greater detail and where you can further support my work.
The Jaguars’ defense presents a difficult matchup for an Eagles offense that desperately needs consistency. I came away impressed by how well they do the basics. They can rush with four, play several coverages behind it, and make running the football extremely difficult. Anthony Campanile has a well-coached unit, but the Eagles can attack this secondary if they protect long enough. That last part is the concern.
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Pass Defense
The starting point is the pass rush. The Jaguars don’t need to send five or six defenders to make quarterbacks uncomfortable, which gives Campanile plenty of freedom with seven defenders behind the rush. Their pressure rate through four games is 36.5%, despite blitzing on only 26.9% of dropbacks. The front that create problems without needing the coordinator to manufacture a free runner every snap.
Josh Hines-Allen is their best pass rusher, and Jordan Mailata should see plenty of him. Hines-Allen has rushed from the defensive right on roughly 83% of his pass-rush reps, making that the most predictable individual matchup up front. Mailata has a big job this week. If the Eagles need to keep adding help to both edges, it becomes much harder to put enough receivers into the pattern to stretch the coverage.
Travon Walker gives them more flexibility. He predominantly rushes from the defensive left, so Markel Bell should expect to face him regularly at right tackle, but Walker also moves to the opposite side and kicks inside. In the example below, the Jaguars put Walker next to Hines-Allen and still generate pressure with four. That matters because the Eagles cannot build their protection plan around the assumption that the two main threats will stay on opposite edges. They have to recognize where the danger is on each snap and communicate it. Which, is scary…
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I would expect the Jaguars to show pressure looks, but this could offer some relief from the constant five-man pressures the Eagles have faced recently. Of course, Campanile has watched those games too. If an offense keeps failing to sort out the blitz, there is every reason to test whether it has fixed the problem. The Eagles need protection checks and immediate passing answers available, even against a defense that usually prefers to rush four.
The play below sums up the defense nicely. Walker creates pressure, the coverage holds up, and the quarterback has nowhere useful to go with the football. There is nothing particularly exotic about it. Everyone understands the assignment, and the front wins. I think the pass rush is better than the secondary, but that distinction becomes irrelevant if the ball cannot get out before the rush arrives. The Eagles have to give Jalen Hurts a chance to exploit those downfield opportunities.
Behind that front, the Jaguars use a lot of zone coverage, with Cover 3, Cover 4 and Cover 6 all featuring prominently. They often begin with a two-high shell and rotate into Cover 1 or Cover 3. Hurts cannot assume that the pre-snap picture tells him where the safety will finish. Their man coverage has been particularly effective this year, while the zone results have been less impressive. I would look to stretch their zone defenders with routes at different depths and make them handle more than one threat, rather than relying entirely on receivers to win isolated matchups.
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Travis Hunter’s development has made this secondary considerably more dangerous. I was a huge fan of Hunter coming out, and I always thought of him as a cornerback first. His recent performances have reinforced that view. His ability to go up and attack the football is outstanding. He has the athleticism to close space that looks available when the quarterback begins his throwing motion, and the ball skills to finish when he gets there.
There are still moments when a veteran receiver can catch him hesitating as he turns, or use physical contact at the break to knock him off balance. He can also be overly eager to jump a route. But this is an impressive young corner, and throwing a hopeful contested ball in his direction is a dangerous way to attack him.
Jarrian Jones is the more inviting matchup. The film shows problems locating the football and defending vertical shots, and opponents have been willing to keep testing him. I would want to make him turn and run, then force him to find the ball downfield. The problem is that without DeVonta Smith, I am not sure the Eagles have enough juice to exploit that weakness consistently.
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Montaric Brown is another outside corner to challenge when he is on the field. He has allowed some significant gains, and speed is the clearest concern in his scouting profile. Both Brown and Jones play on either side, so the Eagles need to identify the defender rather than assume the matchup will always be available to the same receiver.
There are also opportunities behind the safeties when they get aggressive and jump underneath routes. Posts over the top stood out in my notes. I would like the Eagles to use underneath threats to influence those defenders and then attack the space behind them. The Jaguars’ deep-pass EPA allowed ranks 25th through four games, which reinforces the explosive opportunities on film. However, these routes need time. Calling a deep shot means very little if the protection cannot give it a chance to develop.
Run Defense
The run defense is excellent, and DaVon Hamilton is a huge reason why. He is a difficult nose tackle to move, and he disrupts inside runs before the offense can establish the blocks it needs. He makes it difficult to create space in the middle and helps keep the linebackers in position to finish.
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This has been a particularly unpleasant defense to run against from under center. Through four games, those runs have produced just 167 yards on 58 carries, averaging 2.88 yards per attempt. That is a pretty clear warning for an Eagles offense that has already struggled to make its under-center run game work. Personally, I would not choose this opponent as the week to keep forcing it and hope everything suddenly clicks.
Ventrell Miller is the other player who really stood out. He moves well sideline to sideline and finishes tackles in space. Hines-Allen is also a strong run defender on the edge. Between the interior disruption and the pursuit behind it, this defense makes conventional runs difficult to sustain.
If the Eagles lean on under-center outside zone again, I would be surprised if it suddenly becomes the answer this week.
When I went through the positive-EPA runs, pin/pull, reverses, and quarterback involvement kept appearing. The Jaguars are aggressive, flowing toward the football, and offenses have had success getting them moving one way before attacking the backside. Receiver reverses are worth having in the plan. They have faced only four receiver carries, so the statistical sample is tiny, but those plays support a weakness that stood out on fiom.
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I would go heavy shotgun, spread the defense out, and use motion and misdirection to make the linebackers hesitate.
This also needs to be a significant quarterback-run week. Hurts can change the numbers and force the backside defender to respect something other than the running back. Opposing scrambles have produced positive EPA against the Jaguars, too, showing that quarterbacks have found opportunities once they escape the structure of the play. That is not proof that every designed quarterback run will work, but it adds to the case for making Hurts an active part of the rushing attack. I am just not particularly hopeful we will see enough of it.
Final Thoughts
I respect this defense, but there is a route to moving the football. The Eagles need to protect well enough to test Jones and the space behind aggressive safeties, while making the run game less predictable through shotgun formations, misdirection, and Hurts’ legs.
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The matchup that worries me most is the Jaguars’ front against the Eagles’ protection. I do not expect this to be easy. But I would find it incredibly frustrating if the Eagles responded by repeating the same under-center outside zone approach and asking a depleted passing game to rescue them on third down. There are things to attack here. The offense needs to show that it can adjust.
Lastly, if you are at the game, make sure you drop me a comment! I’ll be there!
Thank you for reading! I’d love to hear your thoughts, so feel free to comment below and ask any questions. If you would like to support me further, please check out my Patreon here!
