India vs. Bangladesh live win probability, score, chances of victory for Women’s Asia Cup 2026 semi-final match

India have been a cut above everyone else in this Women’s Asia Cup, and they head into Thursday’s semi-final against Bangladesh at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium as heavy favourites.

A perfect record through the group stage, dominant performances with bat and ball, and an opening partnership that no team has been able to contain; everything points to India being right where they want to be.

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The batting hasn’t even been properly tested yet, which speaks volumes about how comfortably India have gone about their business.

Smriti Mandhana is in the form of her life. She smashed a record-breaking century against Hong Kong in the group stage, and she’ll be the danger woman again on Thursday. Opening partner Shafali Verma is equally dangerous as she’s scored 543 runs in 19 T20I innings in 2026 at a strike rate of 151.67, with five fifties along the way.

Bangladesh got here through a 34-run win over the UAE in their final Group B fixture, which sealed their semi-final place. Nigar Sultana’s team are unlikely to make many changes after that win, with Rabeya Khan and Sharmin Akter both expected to retain their places in the XI.

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India vs. Bangaldesh Women’s Asian Cup 2026: Toss result, score & live updates

After 16 overs, Bangladesh are 84/5

A relentless procession of wickets has derailed Bangladesh’s chase. The past five overs have seen them muster just 33 runs while surrendering three crucial wickets. Pratika Rawat delivered the knockout punch by removing skipper Nigar Sultana, while Deepti Sharma ran through Sobhana Mostary and Sharmin Akhter. With the asking rate spiralling past 20 an over, India are cruising toward an emphatic, one-sided victory in Dubai.

After 10 overs, Bangladesh are 46/2

Despite a couple of lapses in the field with two dropped catches, India’s bowling unit has maintained relentless discipline. Shrewd bowling changes have kept Bangladesh guessing, completely drying up easy scoring avenues. As Nigar Sultana and Sobhana Mostary struggle for fluency and the asking rate breaches the ten-an-over barrier, Bangladesh find themselves pinned against the wall.

After six overs, Bangladesh are 26/1

Bangladesh made a measured start before Shree Charani broke through to terminate the opening stand. With the required rate climbing, Juairiya Ferdous was coerced into forcing the issue, but misjudged a ball spinning away from her off-stump.

Her attempt to hit across the line resulted in a skier, allowing keeper Richa Ghosh to call loudly and safely pouch the opportunity.

After 20 overs, India are 149/6

Harmanpreet stayed until the end but struggled to get going as she finished on 24 from 28 balls. However, Deepti Sharma played a cameo of 13 runs from six balls to steer India to 149. A commanding total, and Bangladesh have their work cut out.

After 16 overs, India are 107/3

India fought their way to 107 for 3 after 16 overs on the back of an emphatic middle-overs turnaround. Shafali Verma led the countercharge with a blistering 40-ball 64 to drag India out of trouble. The finishing duties now rest with Harmanpreet Kaur and Richa Ghosh to haul the innings past the 150 mark.

After 10 overs, India are 59/2

India reached 59 for 2 at the halfway stage as Bangladesh successfully squeezed the scoring rate. Having prised out Pratika Rawat, the bowling side holds the upper hand, leaving the onus on Shafali Verma to construct a defining innings if India are to post a competitive total.

After six overs, India are 45/1

India stand at 45/1 after 6 overs. Bangladesh struck early to remove Smriti Mandhana, but an assured stand between Shafali Verma and Pratika Rawal has put India in a commanding position to target 150-plus.

Toss: Bangladesh Women have won the toss and have opted to field

India vs. Bangaldesh Women’s Asian Cup 2026: Predicted playing XI

India playing XI: Shafali Verma, Smriti Mandhana, Pratika Rawal, Harmanpreet Kaur(c), Bharti Fulmali, Richa Ghosh(w), Deepti Sharma, Prema Rawat, Shree Charani, Kranti Gaud, Nandani Sharma

Bangladesh playing XI: Dilara Akter, Juairiya Ferdous, Sobhana Mostary, Nigar Sultana(w/c), Sharmin Akhter, Shorna Akter, Fahima Khatun, Nahida Akter, Rabeya Khan, Sultana Khatun, Marufa Akter