​​​​For vacationers who routinely wait to travel between Labor Day and mid-November to take advantage of so-called shoulder season deals, this year may be a letdown.

While airfares typically drop by up to 20% after summer and leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday, this year’s average fall fares are mostly higher.

Fall prices in the top 10 US destinations are averaging 20% higher for lodging and 2% higher for flights compared to summer, according to Expedia. 

The average domestic airfare is $326 — up 39% compared to last year, according to Hopper Technology Solutions. Airfare for international trips has risen by double digits this fall over last year, with fares to Europe up over 33%.

“Fall has historically been a sweet spot for travelers seeking lower airfares after the peak summer season, but that may be changing,” Hayley Berg, lead economist at Hopper, told Yahoo Finance.  “For the first time in years, fall fares are now in line with summer prices. In many cases, there are higher airfares and fewer hotel deals.”

As jet fuel prices surged this spring after the war in Iran started, airlines hiked up airfares and fees. Now fuel costs are lower, but that doesn’t mean airfares will follow suit soon. 

“I suspect that fares will remain where they are for the rest of the year and into the early part of next year,” said John Grant, an analyst at aviation data provider OAG. “Oil remains relatively high, operating costs are not falling, and airlines are looking to make profits. So that means high fares.”

The reality is that the discount for traveling during the fall shoulder season has been shrinking over the last four years, according to Berg.

In addition to the cost of fuel, remote work flexibility has had “an outsized impact” on the travel industry, she said. 

“Travelers can now fly or stay on less expensive days of the week, or extend a work trip into a leisure stay over a weekend,” she said. “With more flexibility on vacation dates, travelers shift trips to shoulder season months. This has boosted demand during traditionally quiet periods of the year, pushing prices up.” 

How and where to find deals

It’s not all disappointing. 

Fall still “promises cooler temperatures and lighter crowds in many popular destinations, and can be an especially great time to go to the beach, where warm ocean temperatures help stretch out the summer vibe,” Melanie Fish, a travel expert at Expedia, told Yahoo Finance.

Honolulu, Fort Walton Beach in Florida, and San Diego deliver warm days and beach vibes with average combined savings for lodging and flights of about 15% in the fall compared to summer, according to Expedia. 

For travelers seeking cooler temperatures, Anchorage, Aspen, Colo., and Bozeman, Mont., provide average combined savings for lodging and flights of about 30% in fall compared to summer, said Fish.

AAA Northeast travel adviser Claudete Fujikawa agreed. 

“Alaska, in particular, is an excellent choice in September and early October,” she said. “Rates can be lower, fall colors begin to appear, and travelers may even have an opportunity to see the Northern Lights. Canada/New England cruises also remain very popular during the foliage season.”

Europe is probably the biggest story for fall travel right now, said Fujikawa.

“You still get great weather in Italy, Ireland, Spain, Greece, and Portugal, but it’s a much more comfortable experience. European river cruises and Mediterranean cruises are also incredibly popular with our clients,” she said.

For Asian adventures, there’s a lot of new competition on new routes, according to Clint Henderson, managing editor at The Points Guy, so you can “often find great bargains to Hong Kong, Brisbane, or Taipei where the airlines are still trying to fill the plane.” 

Check your preferred airline for special deals to use your miles. “I’ve seen some incredible mileage sales, especially using Delta SkyMiles,” said Henderson. “There are Europe trips in coach for as few as 22,000 miles and Delta One (business class) as low as 97,000 miles one-way. I’ve also seen great deals on business class on American Airlines or Alaska Airlines for as few as 55,000 miles in business class,” he added.

Tips for scoring fall travel deals

“Travelers will need to do a little more legwork to find the best travel deals this fall shoulder season, but although prices are higher on average, that doesn’t mean the value in off-peak travel is totally washed out,”  Fish said. 

Here’s some expert guidance for an affordable vacation.

Be flexible on destination and/or dates. 

Choose your departure day with care. Friday is generally the new best day to book, according to Fish.

It’s also typically the cheapest day to fly internationally — about 8% cheaper than Sunday, the most expensive day, according to Expedia’s data.

Tuesday is the cheapest day to fly domestically, averaging 14% less than Sunday departures.

If you’re looking for the best deals, “don’t just stick to the Lower 48: Alaska and Hawaii are among the best value destinations in the shoulder season this year,” she said,

You can find incredible bargains, like a Hawaii round-trip for less than $300, or the Caribbean for around $300, Henderson said. 

Skip September. 

“Look for October and November for the best deals — aside from turkey day,” he added.

Monitor prices

If you know where you’d like to take off to, set an airfare price tracker. You’ll get alerts when fares drop or jump. The major travel apps, such as Hopper, KAYAK, and Skyscanner, offer fare tracking, as does Google Flights.

Another way to shop for a fall trip is to set your home airport in your preferred travel app like Expedia’s Flight Deals feature, and it will show you where airfare deals are available.

With Google Flights Explore, you put in your home airport, and it opens an interactive map of the world where you can search for the best bargains. 

“It’s one of the best-kept secrets in trip planning,” Henderson said. 

KAYAK’s AI planner lets you check pricing across flights, hotels, and car rentals.

Call hotels directly 

The best lodging deals are usually offered by the property itself, whether a hotel or a private rental. 

Hotels in big cities typically lower their prices as check-in nears and they’re looking to fill empty rooms, Berg said. Booking in the last 12 to 48 hours prior to check-in can usually save travelers significantly.

Don’t drag your feet awaiting falling fares. 

Delaying forever won’t work. Once you know where you’d like to go and have done your homework to see what’s available and in your budget, book it. It’s unlikely that you’re going to snag a last-minute deal.  

“I always tell my clients that the best time to travel is when you can,” Fujikawa said. “If there’s a destination you’ve been dreaming about, don’t wait for the perfect time. Make the memories.”

Kerry Hannon is a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance. She is a career and retirement strategist and the author of 14 books, including “Retirement Bites: A Gen X Guide to Securing Your Financial Future,” “In Control at 50+: How to Succeed in the New World of Work,” and “Never Too Old to Get Rich.” Follow her on Bluesky and X.

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