Texas vs Texas State Prediction: Can the Longhorns Focus?

Texas is playing Ohio State next week. If you didn’t know that already, you’re the only one, because that’s been the game everyone has been waiting for all offseason.

It’s the moment when Texas can claim to be the top team in the country as the Buckeyes enter Austin in what might be the game of the season.

But first, Texas State would love nothing more than to screw that up. The new Pac-12 school has the firepower and tempo to give the Longhorns a rough ride.

Texas vs Texas State: Quick Hits

An FBS team since 2012, Texas State is 1-12 against at-the-time power conference teams. The lone win came at Baylor to open the 2023 season.
Texas lost to Ohio State last year. Before that, it won six straight openers.
Texas State had lost six straight season openers before winning the last three.

How To Watch Texas vs Texas State

Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
– CFN Week 1 Schedule, Predictions

Why Texas State Will Win

Here comes the Texas State offense. The idea is to keep defenses in a constant backpedal with quick-hitting plays in a rhythm. The playmakers are back to make it all go.

Brad Jackson is one of the nation’s most dangerous all-around quarterbacks, throwing for well over 3,000 yards last season and running for 17 scores. The receivers are strong, the line is great on the inside, and Texas has to replace star defensive backs Michael Taaffe and Malik McDonald.

Why Texas Will Win

Everyone will be focusing on Arch Manning, but this is mostly about the running game that struggled so much last season. If there’s ever a problem getting control of the game, pound, pound, and pound.

The Longhorns loaded up at running back with Hollywood Smothers from NC State and Raleek Brown from Arizona State, and they should pound away on the interior of the Texas State defensive front.

Texas vs Texas State Prediction, Betting Lines

Texas State can play a little bit.

It pushed Arizona State a bit last year and lost 31-28 to the Sun Devils two seasons ago. 2026 Texas will be a whole other problem, though.

The Longhorn defense will hold up fine after Jackson and the Bobcats go on two good early drives, and Arch will be efficient. Again, the Texas running game will be the story.

Texas 45, Texas State 14
Latest Consensus Line: Texas -29.5, o/u: 59.5
ATS Confidence (out of 5): 2.5
Must See Rating (out of 5): 3

Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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