Financial engineering is no substitute for interest rates: Lessons from Türkiye



The Turkish central bank cut interest rates over 2021-2023, on the politically driven view that higher rates cause inflation. This column analyses the policies used instead: foreign exchange interventions, a foreign-exchange-protected deposit scheme, and eventually financial repression and soft capital controls. These interventions did not remove currency risk but moved it onto the government, widened sovereign spreads, and converted a monetary problem into a fiscal one. After the 2023 elections, orthodox policy returned. However, the costs of this experiment are large and still being paid, making the eventual adjustment larger than the one avoided.



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