It will be more challenging this season for the Group of Six to get multiple teams into the College Football Playoff.

After crashing into last year’s bracket with two teams (Tulane, James Madison), the playoff rules have changed yet again in a way that makes that more challenging. The champions of the Power Four conferences now automatically get in — Duke was left out last year — and if Notre Dame finishes ranked in the top 12, it gets in, too. That leaves one guaranteed spot for the Group of Six.

There are quite a few new faces leading Group of Six programs after a very active coaching carousel in 2025. Both of last year’s playoff teams have new coaches. So, too, do American Conference heavyweights South Florida, North Texas and Memphis. 

Who will emerge from that group this season? Our experts break it down below.  

Top Group of Six teams 

Group of Six CFP bid

Boise State: Boise State is my pick to win the new-look Pac-12 and emerge as the top Group of Six team. We’ve already seen Spencer Danielson pull it off once with a 2024 berth, and there’s a lot to like about this year’s roster, especially quarterback Maddux Madsen. A season opener against Oregon is tough, but games against Fresno State and San Diego State could define the season. — John Talty (also Chip Patterson, Shehan Jeyarajah, David Cobb, Chris Hummer)

North Dakota State: Call it wishful chaos, but I’m counting on North Dakota State shaking things up in its first year at the FBS level. NDSU got its wish with the NCAA changing its two-year probation rule, paving the way for bowl eligibility in Year 1 on the FBS level. The Mountain West is strong, and UNLV should be the favorite to win the conference, but something tells me the Bison’s physicality will shake things up. NDSU goes undefeated at home, does enough on the road, beats UNLV in the conference title game and the Mountain West capitalizes on a slightly down year in the American to steal a playoff bid. — Brandon Marcello

UNLV: It’s not easy figuring out who the best teams at the G6 level will be these days with the constant raiding of their rosters by P4 programs every offseason, and when you toss in a fresh round of conference realignment, it complicates things even further. My faith (guess) in UNLV is based on two primary factors. The first is a belief in Dan Mullen and his ability to put together a good offense, which is typically what you need at this level. The second is that the Mountain West essentially lost all of its historically strongest programs to the Pac-12. The door to a conference title is wider in the new Mountain West for UNLV than it is for the top teams in the Pac-12, American or Sun Belt this season. — Tom Fornelli

South Florida: Arguably the most flush with cash of all the G6 teams, or at least on the shortlist, is USF under new coach Brian Hartline, who more than anything knows his way around recruiting in South Florida. Most of the good players from last year, particularly on offense, are now at Auburn, but some intriguing transfers up front on defense have piqued my interest significantly. The schedule is extremely friendly, but they will probably have to go undefeated to be the G6 rep. — Richard Johnson