Mahmood Nanji, a fellow at Western University’s business school and former Ontario associate deputy finance minister, said in an interview that this is probably the more intense period of negotiations since last October when Ontario’s anti-tariff TV ad blitz scuttled trade talks.

The ad, which featured archival footage of the late U.S. president Ronald Reagan railing against tariffs almost 40 years ago, went viral after Trump lashed out against it in several Truth Social posts.

“I think the last 10 days has clearly demonstrated that there’s some intense negotiations going on,” said Nanji.

Nanji said both Canada and the U.S. are under pressure to get a deal, including because U.S. midterm elections are coming up and that Trump will likely want to brag about reaching a deal.

“The Trump administration is under a lot of pressure from governors, folks in Congress, in the Senate, business leaders, and interestingly enough, in the last couple of weeks, from union leaders,” he said.

Nanji said it seems like the U.S. wants to take a “piecemeal approach,” while Canada is aiming to reach a broader agreement. He also said he believes any new agreement will have some baseline tariffs.

“There’s already a perception that Canada has yielded too many concessions so far,” he said. “I suspect that Prime Minister Carney and the negotiating team and the premiers are going to have to make some tough decisions around supply management and will probably have to yield a little bit there.”

The supply management system that protects Canadian dairy has been cited by the U.S. as a key irritant in trade negotiations and Trump has repeatedly complained about the level of U.S. dairy farmers’ access to Canada’s market.

Other trade irritants flagged by the U.S., where American negotiators are pushing for concessions, include the federal government’s “Buy Canadian” procurement policy, quotas on certain U.S. vehicles and provincial bans on sales of U.S. alcohol.

Last week, Dairy Farmers of Canada warned against any concessions involving their sector, arguing that “a bad deal is not worth the cost.”

An ideal outcome, Nanji said, would be for the incoming tariffs to be postponed giving negotiators more time to work towards an agreement.

“What Canada doesn’t want to do is go through this whole process of negotiating a comprehensive agreement only for Donald Trump to wake up one morning and say, oh, by the way, I’m imposing 10 per cent tariffs across the board for every country, regardless of whether there’s an agreement or not,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 13, 2026.

-With files from Nick Murray, Catherine Morrison and Kyle Duggan

The Canadian Press staff