(Bloomberg) — Shein Global Holdings Ltd.’s fast-fashion niche supports a valuation of $22 billion to $25 billion, Bloomberg Intelligence said, putting a fresh marker on one of the biggest questions surrounding the retailer as it prepares for one of the year’s biggest initial public offerings.

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BI’s estimate values Shein at about 13 to 15 times projected 2027 earnings, using that year as a more normalized base after freight and tariff shocks weigh on its 2026 results. Consumer and technology analysts Catherine Lim and Jason Zhu expect earnings to recover to $1.67 billion in 2027 and then grow about 20% annually through 2029.

“Shein’s valuation should assume a normalized growth and earnings outlook starting in 2027 rather than a depressed 2026 baseline,” they wrote in a note on Monday. The valuation reflects Shein’s unusual position between a China-linked e-commerce platform and a global fast-fashion retailer with a supply chain designed to respond quickly to changing consumer trends.

The estimate is below the roughly $30 billion valuation some investors have pushed for and less than half the $66 billion Shein fetched in a 2023 funding round. The company was valued at about $100 billion at its peak in 2022, underscoring how far expectations have fallen as growth slows and regulatory and trade pressures mount.

The company disclosed slowing revenue growth and profitability in July, adding to pressure on the valuation.

Shein is now aiming ​for a $30 billion to $40 billion valuation, Reuters reported this month. That range would put the company at a premium to the average of global e-commerce and fast-fashion peers as well as China-linked platforms, according to BI.

Such a price “would require investors to underwrite both a clean marketplace mix shift and flawless European regulatory execution,” Lim and Zhu wrote.

Shein also needs to be valued partly as a Chinese exporter, BI said. Its supply chain is concentrated in mainland China while most of its earnings are generated overseas, exposing the company to shipping costs, tariffs and regulatory requirements across markets, according to BI.

Hong Kong-listed consumer-goods exporters including Lenovo, Haier, Shenzhou, Yue Yuen, Stella International and Crystal International trade at roughly 8 to 13 times projected 2027 earnings, according to BI.