The CPC is polling just a hair below 30%, and Pierre Poilievre’s “favourability” as next PM is now tied with “Undecided” at 18%.  Add to that, another CPC MP just announced they are leaving elected office – the 7th MP to leave caucus since last year’s election. 

I’m not sitting here writing this to gloat over the smouldering ashes of Poilievre’s leadership career.  Frankly, that’s not the point at all.

No, this is about the much more bizarre reactions I am seeing online to this.  Instead of seeing CPC supporters rationally saying “hey, this isn’t working, we need to make changes”, a lot of them are doubling down – getting angry at Carney instead.  I see comments like “how come nobody’s talking about the departures from the Liberals?”, or “Carney’s done nothing for Canada”.  

I don’t actually care what your opinion of Carney is.  I don’t particularly like Carney, but I also really don’t like Poilievre.  So what?  

The issue is that ever since the election, Poilievre has been on a downward spiral in his personal popularity.  That has dragged the party down in the polls as well.  Polling at 30% is getting down to the CPC’s “core base support” – meaning it’s mostly coming from the prairie provinces.  A look at 338 Canada’s current projection map supports that conclusion.  

Yes, I know – land doesn’t vote, people do.  But look at that map for a moment – outside of Alberta and Saskatchewan, the CPC simply doesn’t hold a whole lot of support – it’s concentrated in the Prairie provinces mostly.  This is very much reflective of the problem we saw for years with Reform and Canadian Alliance (Reform, with different logos).  While they swept the Prairie provinces, they struggled to make real inroads.  Under Poilievre, a party which garnered its largest proportion of seats in years in the 2025 election is now set to retreat to its old stomping grounds as a “Prairie rump party”.  

Great … you’ll have secured the Prairie provinces, where apparently getting elected has more to do with the colour of your shirt than anything else.  At this point, people in Ontario and Quebec have made it pretty clear where they stand, and it’s not with Poilievre.  

But the problem for the CPC doesn’t end when Poilievre resigns as leader.  Like Andrew Scheer, it seems he’s likely to stick around as MP, and will continue to be a drag on party perception unless he simply goes quiet.  

The problem the CPC is now facing is in fact the same fundamental problem that makes Alberta’s UCP so toxic:  policy wise, it has been taken over by a highly radicalized fringe movement.  A new leader not only has to deal with that fringe, but they somehow have to find a way to shift the party’s direction away from the far right.  I am not convinced that is likely to happen.  I don’t see anyone in the CPC’s “front line” that is capable of not only sounding reasonable, but in fact being able to redirect the party away from the Trumpian cliff Poilievre has set it hurtling towards.