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When thinking of next-generation fighter jets, it is useful not to think of them as fighter jets in the traditional sense. Rather, they are more like next-generation flying data centers forced to solve a raft of engineering challenges that had never been solved in the past (while also carrying missiles). Public attention is often focused on the easily visible aspects, like the stealthy shape and the tailless designs, but these can be distractions to understanding what is really going on.
Britain’s BAE Systems started researching the Tempest/GCAP fighter jet in 2015. Around eleven years later, the demonstrator is now 75% complete and is set to fly in 2027. The type is expected to enter into service in 2035 (a date insisted by Japan), but will then likely take a decade more or so to mature. Let’s examine why it can take an engineer’s entire working career to see a next-generation fighter jet from initial concepts through to full operational maturity.
Straining An Aerospace Industry To The Core
It is generally accepted by serious analysts that the United States and China are the only two countries with the budgets, depth of demand, precision manufacturing base, etc., needed to feasibly go it alone, develop, and mature a true sixth-generation fighter. France’s Dassault has said it will go it alone and develop a new jet without Germany, but many analysts consider this will be a scaled-down, carrier-based fighter from the previously planned FCAS and is being termed by some as a 5++ generation fighter.
There are also questions over whether France will develop next-generation variable cycle engines alone. Russia is not known to be developing a true sixth-generation fighter jet. For now, Russia is focusing on maturing its Su-57 Felon and producing its existing Su-30/34/35 series to win its current conflict, not some future conflict.
There have not been any major new reports on the future PAK DP/MiG-41 interceptor for several years. Some consider it to not be a fully funded project. It is also described as a 5+ generation fighter jet. Besides the US and China, Germany may be one of the more capable countries in the sector, but it is evaluating its options.
At most, it may lead to a next-generation project with Sweden. The United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan have partnered to produce the GCAP/Tempest sixth-generation fighter. Even this is straining their budgets, and countries like Italy have repeatedly said the group would like to see other countries like Canada, Australia, and Germany participate and share the burden.
The Engines Are A Parallel Effort
The United States is in an enviable position. Britain has a highly concentrated combat aircraft industrial base, leaving it with few realistic domestic alternatives. For a sovereign fighter jet, it is all but certain the airframe will be designed and built by BAE Systems and the engine by Rolls-Royce. By contrast, the US has options. Not only do Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin compete for the aircraft, but GE Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney do the same with engines.
With the US, history is repeating itself. The US Air Force had two parallel competing demonstrators for the airframe and engine that led to the F-22 Raptor powered by PW F119 engines. Today, GE Aerospace is developing the XA102 adaptive cycle engine prototype and Pratt & Whitney is developing the XA103 adaptive cycle engine prototype for the F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet.
GE Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Rolls-Royce are considered to be the world’s leaders in designing and manufacturing bespoke next-generation fighter jet engines. The Aero Engine Corporation of China is considered behind, but narrowing the gap.
Other significant engine manufacturers include France’s Safran (also very capable), Germany’s MTU Aero Engines, Russia’s United Engine Corporation, and Japan’s IHI Corporation. All possess significant expertise in military propulsion, although there is less evidence that any currently match the breadth of experience or demonstrated capability of the big three.
Thermal Management Is Hard
One of the greatest engineering issues with developing next-generation fighter jets is thermal management. Sixth-generation fighter jets are to be loaded with power-hungry electronics generating an enormous amount of heat that needs to be disposed of without compromising the aircraft’s Infrared signature.
These aircraft are expected to be something akin to flying data sensors with powerful computers, sensors, avionics, electronic warfare suites, jamming, and even directed energy weapons such as lasers. An analogy could be that of a smartphone running multiple power-intensive apps, making a phone call, plugged in, and exposed to direct sunlight, while also having to hide from a thermal camera.
The F-35 has been designed with advanced thermal management systems allowing it to carry an electronics suite other aircraft are unable to cope with. The ongoing Block 4 upgrades are pushing its thermal management capabilities. Sixth-generation fighter jets are to make this much more acute. Solutions are coming from a mixture of contributing features, from variable-cycle engines to modified jet fuel being used as a coolant.
Sixth-Generation Fighters Are Larger Systems
While most articles focus on fighter jets themselves, this is myopic and misleading. Next-generation fighter jets are better understood as a component, not as a complete system. Next-generation fighters are to be highly integrated command and sensor nodes in a much larger kill chain. A clue is that the F-47 is described as the manned component of the NGAD program alongside Collaborative Combat Aircraft.
However, it is even larger than this. A true sixth-generation fighter jet capability requires more than the manned fighter and its loyal wingmen drones. It requires supporting next-generation satellites and cueing, advanced communications, resilient networking, distributed sensing, electronic warfare, off-board sensing, battle management, and cloud-enabled data sharing that need to be integrated into other systems.
Future fighter jets that are often called ‘sixth generation’ | First flight (per BAE) | Country/countries |
|---|---|---|
Boeing F-47 | 2019/2020 (demonstrator), 2028 prototype | United States |
F/A-XX | Unclear | United States |
Chengdu J-36 | 2024 (demonstrator/prototype first public appearance) | China |
BAE Systems GCAP/Tempest | 2027 demonstrator | UK, Italy, Japan |
PAK DP/MiG-41 | Likely stalled | Russia |
FCAS | Collapsed | Germany, France, Spain |
For the United States, a sixth-generation fighter may even involve stealthy next-generation tanker aircraft. Developing such an ecosystem takes decades, even for the world’s most advanced nations with urgent requirements. A rough (but overstated) analogy for a sixth-generation fighter operating without its ecosystem could be a sixth-generation fighter jet denied missiles and forced to fight with guns only.
It Takes Decades
The F-35 program began in 1993 with the Joint Advanced Strike Technology and entered service over 20 years later in the mid-2010s. However, it is not expected to fully come into its own as envisioned until around 2030 with Block 4 upgrades, around 35-40 years later. Having said that, the F-35 was developed in a time of peace following the end of the Cold War, and the US could afford to take its time.
Additionally, technology (such as advanced digital design tools) has changed significantly, while the urgency has shifted. The US is now racing to develop its next-generation F-47 faster. But the F-47 jet and ecosystem are also much more complicated and still take time. The NGAD program started in 2014, and the contract was awarded in 2025, or around a decade later.
The US is (ambitiously) planning for the F-47 to enter service in 2029/2030. That is a lapse of around 16 years. Even if it does, it will almost certainly take many more years to mature the aircraft into its full potential.
Again, there is a clue in that the Air Force is carrying out sweeping upgrades for its F-22s to keep them relevant into the 2040s. This suggests the USAF expects a prolonged period during which the F-22 and F-47 will operate alongside one another, rather than the newer aircraft immediately replacing its predecessor.
Sixth-Generation Jets Can Be An Iterative Process
In 2024, China flew its next-generation, three-engined, tailless, Chengdu J-36 demonstrator/prototype for the first time. Some commentators were asking if the jet was a 5+ or sixth-generation fighter. It should be noted that it is impossible to faithfully answer that question, as firstly, there are no universally accepted criteria to grade them.
Secondly, next-generation jets are about the avionics, off-board network, and other systems on board, not about how many engines or tails they have. Without knowing what is going on inside the cockpit, it is impossible to know. Another important aspect is that fighter jets evolve and mature over time. Lockheed won the contract for the F-35 in 2001, and in 2014 it entered service. However, Lockheed was unable to incorporate some of the futuristic capabilities it promised, resulting in concurrency.
It is only now that some of those capabilities are being delivered, over a decade after it entered service. This is common. Russia’s Su-57 remains immature, while the South Korean KF-21 is intended to be a 4.5-generation fighter in early Blocks but upgrade to fifth-generation using its internal weapons bays with future Block upgrades. Even if the J-36 is not a true sixth-generation fighter jet when it enters service, that doesn’t mean it won’t be later on.
