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Patrick Commins

Patrick Commins

Carolyn Hewson, an independent member of the Reserve Bank’s rate-setting board, said the global oil shock has made it more “complex” to manage monetary policy, but that it was wrong to frame the central bank’s deliberations as a “stark choice” between “prioritising inflation or prioritising jobs”.

The RBA has hiked interest rates three times this year as it attempts to juggle a (hopefully) temporary stagflationary shock from surging fuel prices that is pushing unemployment and inflation higher.

Hewson’s address at Adelaide University last night gave little extra insight into what the RBA will do next on rates.

But it was notable as the first of its kind since the central bank committed to having each of its independent board members deliver at least one speech a year.

“Supply constraints push inflation higher at the same time as they weaken economic activity and employment,” Hewson said, in a nod to the impact from the closure of the strait of Hormuz.

double quotation markIt is often said that central banks face a stark choice in such moments between prioritising inflation or prioritising jobs.

But “that framing misses the point”, she said.

double quotation markIt is not a question of which objective matters more; instead, it is about understanding that they are generally complementary over the longer term.

Seen this way, the RBA’s dual mandate is an expression of economics in service of the broader public interest.

Something to keep in mind the next time the RBA pushes up your mortgage costs. For the record, that could happen as soon as August.

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