Victor Wembanyama is shattering the NBA’s age curve


The NBA playoffs have a well-earned reputation for testing, and sometimes exposing, talented young stars.

Michael Jordan didn’t lead the Bulls out of the first round until his fourth season, Kobe Bryant famously hoisted all those airballs in Utah as a rookie, and LeBron James was left open by playoff opponents early in his career because he hadn’t yet honed his outside shooting touch.

These early stumbles are a cherished part of basketball lore: Jordan, Bryant, and James learned hard lessons, addressed their flaws, got their playoff reps and went on to win championships.

But Victor Wembanyama is challenging this conventional wisdom by raising his game as he leads the Spurs on a deep playoff run. What if playoff growing pains aren’t mandatory?

Wembanyama, 22, has been the NBA’s top performer in his first playoff run: He ranks first in player efficiency rating (PER), rebounds and blocks among players who have appeared in at least 10 games. What’s more, the French phenom made a strong case that he’s the best player in the world by posting 41 points and 24 rebounds in a Game 1 double-overtime victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday in the Western Conference finals.

Though Oklahoma City countered Wednesday to even the series, the Spurs should return to San Antonio for Friday’s Game 3 (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC) comforted by the knowledge that Wembanyama is putting together arguably the best playoff run by a young star in the NBA’s modern era.

Jump to a section:
20/10/4 club | Age-22 runs
The GOAT chase | Finals MVP?

20/10/4 club

Let’s start with Wembanyama’s simple playoff statistics: 22.1 points, 12.3 rebounds and 4.0 blocks per game. That makes him the youngest player ever to average 20 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks per game across a run of at least 10 playoff games, outpacing Hall of Famers Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson, who accomplished the feat in their age-24 seasons. (Note: Blocks were first recorded during the 1973-74 season.)

While Olajuwon and Robinson represent elite company, they didn’t win their first championships until after their 30th birthdays, though Olajuwon did reach the NBA Finals in his second season. Wembanyama has a chance to leave both in the dust: The Spurs seized home-court advantage from the Thunder in the West finals, and they would likely be favored over the Knicks or Cavaliers if San Antonio advances to the Finals.


Best age-22 playoff runs

Can anyone claim to have a better playoff run at age 22 than Wembanyama?

Right now? Yes. One month from now? Maybe not.

The chart shows the best PER by an age-22 player during a playoff run (minimum 10 games and 250 minutes played). Wembanyama ranks third behind two all-time greats.

Chris Paul was masterful in his first playoff run, but the New Orleans Hornets bowed out in the second round. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s spectacular rookie season ended three wins short of the Finals, while Luka Doncic’s Dallas Mavericks and Amar’e Stoudemire’s Phoenix Suns were knocked out of the Western Conference finals in short order.

In other words, Wembanyama would stand alone among this group if he maintains his current standard of play and leads San Antonio past Oklahoma City.

Let’s look at another measure of all-around production and impact: win shares per 48 minutes. This time, Wembanyama ranks second among a distinguished pack of age-22 stars.

Now the comparisons are really starting to get interesting. Bryant, who entered the NBA straight from high school, was an ascendant performer in his fifth playoff run for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2000-01. That year, he won his second championship alongside Shaquille O’Neal. Tim Duncan, who spent four seasons at Wake Forest, won his first championship in 1998-99 during his second playoff run.

While Duncan is an obvious analogue for Wembanyama given their Spurs ties, positional similarities and two-way dominance, Wembanyama also evokes Bryant’s fearlessness and flair in the clutch. Duncan and Bryant are helpful guides: If Wembanyama plans to collect a fistful of championship rings, it’s best to get off to an early start.


The GOAT chase

After his sensational showing in San Antonio’s Game 1 win, Wembanyama prompted a wave of social media posts wondering whether he might one day claim the coveted greatest of all time title among NBA players.

The basketball world’s glee was understandable given that San Antonio’s franchise center hit a 3-pointer from the logo, dunked multiple times through contact, came through with multiple defensive stops in the clutch and outdueled back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Hall of Famer Paul Pierce called Wembanyama “the best basketball player I’ve ever seen” last week, and that was before he took over Game 1 with a performance for the ages.

So, how does Wembanyama stack up against Jordan and James at the same stage of their careers?

Jordan’s scoring average is the highest in a single postseason in NBA history, but it came in just three games, as the Bulls were swept out of the first round of the 1986 playoffs by the eventual champion Boston Celtics. And while James’ efficiency ranks third, he carried an underwhelming Cleveland Cavaliers roster to the Finals in his fourth season.

The stakes for Wembanyama are clear: Lead San Antonio to a championship next month, and he’d be one up on both Jordan and James, who each claimed their first rings in their age-27 seasons.


The all-important Finals MVP

Every discussion about best playoff runs by young prodigies must mention Magic Johnson and Kawhi Leonard, the youngest Finals MVP winners in league history.

Johnson ran point for the Lakers’ championship teams in 1980 (age 20) and 1982 (age 22), but he had the benefit of playing with Abdul-Jabbar. Leonard, meanwhile, was the 2014 Finals MVP for a Spurs team loaded with Hall of Famers such as Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

If Wembanyama were to lead the Spurs to the promised land and win Finals MVP, he would become the award’s second-youngest winner. And unlike Johnson and Leonard during their Finals MVP campaigns, he would almost certainly finish the playoffs as his team’s top scorer. (He’s currently two points per game ahead of Stephon Castle.)

Johnson’s closeout win in the 1980 Finals without an injured Abdul-Jabbar is one of the most iconic games in NBA history, but Abdul-Jabbar was the regular season MVP that season and averaged 31.9 points and 12.1 rebounds per game during the playoffs. Johnson would never have been in position to take home the hardware without Abdul-Jabbar.

Therein lies a potential trump card for Wembanyama to complete the most impressive playoff run for a young player in the modern era: His Spurs teammates are talented and relentless, but he’s by far the brightest star.

Wembanyama’s height, length, skill level and intelligence make it easy to fall victim to hyperbole. With that said, if he keeps up his current statistical pace and lifts the Larry O’Brien and Bill Russell trophies next month, he would enter a class of his own.



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