Welcome to Economic Insights, your twice-weekly deep dive into the major projects and policy shifts shaping the Canadian economy.

Stories we are following:

• The Oil Sands Alliance is the latest industry voice to warn against an “uncompetitive” carbon price, with the five oil patch producers casting doubt on the future of their own flagship Pathways carbon capture project.
• The Narwhal unearthed a briefing note for Minister Tim Hodgson explicitly comparing Prime Minister MARK CARNEY’s Major Projects Office to U.S. President DONALD TRUMP’s “National Energy Dominance Council.”

Suncor alum recommends shelving of Pathways 

The consensus on carbon capture is cracking. MARTHA HALL FINDLAY, a former Suncor executive and key architect of the Pathways Alliance, is now publicly calling for the $16-billion project to be shelved.

• Times have changed: She says initially Pathways was meant to help improve the oil patch’s reputation, and contribute to global efforts to cut emissions. But now, she’s not seeing that kind of action on the global stage. 
• Not happy about it: Findlay wants to be clear she isn’t happy climate change is less of a priority now, but she says it changes the facts of the matter.
  

“In a world where most countries are not focused on that, it doesn’t make sense to me for Canada to be out there alone,” she tells iPolitics. 

• Another voice: Just days after Findlay’s comments, the Oil Sands Alliance, representing five of the country’s biggest oil producers, issued a statement undermining the case for carbon pricing and complicating the future of Pathways. 
• What’s uncompetitive? The Oil Sands Alliance would not answer follow up questions about what it considers to be “uncompetitive” carbon pricing. 
• Feds won’t budge: A spokesperson for Energy Minister TIM HODGSON calls carbon capture a “key pillar” and a “critical tool.” They say the federal government will work with the Oil Sands Alliance to advance Pathways as a precondition for a new bitumen pipeline.

FOI doc provides insight on internal definition of Major Projects Office

Per Narwhal reporting: Prime Minister Mark Carney’s special office for speeding up major projects “operates similarly” to U.S. President Donald Trump’s energy “tiger team,” according to internal Canadian government records.

• What it says: “The NEDC operates similarly to the Major Projects Office,” the briefing note from Natural Resources Canada reads, “providing support to advance projects efficiently and address issues that may impede progress. It is a small group of officials working at the centre of government to facilitate decision-making.”
• No definition: The law that helped launch the Major Projects Office, the Building Canada Act, does not define what constitutes a national interest project. 
• Track record: The Major Projects Office has been under increased scrutiny in the past weeks to defend its accomplishments since September, with no project having received a national interest designation.

By the numbers 

$130: The target carbon price per tonne by 2030 that industry says is “unworkable” without government financial guarantees.

0: The number of “national interest” designations officially issued by the Carney government to date, despite 275 projects sitting in the Major Projects Office intake queue.

$57 billion: The combined value of projects in industrial and natural resource sectors that depend on the existence of a carbon price.

Major projects watch 

—  Electra Battery Materials has signed a binding investment agreement for $20 million in federal funding to finish construction of its cobalt sulfate refinery in the Temiskaming district. The mechanical completion of the refinery is expected during the second quarter of 2027. First production is expected to start some time that year. 

— As per Cabin Radio reporting, the Ekati diamond mine has liabilities of more than half a billion dollars, has shed hundreds of jobs and no longer has any cash to pay remaining workers. It was Canadas first surface and underground mine, located in the Northwest Territories. Burgundy, the mine’s owner, filed for creditor protection and hopes to sell the mine after diamond prices fell by about 74 per cent.

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