DES MOINES, Iowa — Vice President JD Vance lands here Tuesday in an effort to boost the re-election campaign of Rep. Zach Nunn — the latest development that underscores Republicans’ midterm jitters in a state that has moved to the right in recent years.

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In Iowa’s race for governor, the GOP is dealing with a jumbled June 2 primary field while the presumptive Democratic nominee, State Auditor Rob Sand, coasts without opposition.

And in the battle for an open Senate seat, the main Republican-aligned Senate super PAC in Washington is preparing to pump nearly $30 million worth of advertising into a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the chamber in 18 years.

Vance’s appearance with Nunn, meanwhile, is connected to the GOP’s scramble to keep control of the House, where the party has a slim majority heading into this fall’s elections. Nunn’s is one of at least two Republican-held seats in Iowa that could flip to Democrats this fall.

Jeff Kaufmann, the Iowa GOP chair, said he believes Tuesday’s visit to the state will be the first of many for Vance, a likely White House contender in 2028. Iowa is known for hosting the first presidential caucuses.

“Iowa is in the crosshairs again this year,” Kaufmann said in an interview. “A wide-open Senate seat, potentially three — right now it looks like two, but potentially three — competitive congressional seats. Majorities in the Senate and the House pass through Iowa. And we’ve got an open governor’s race.”

“I suspect we’re going to be seeing a lot of national leaders trekking through the Hawkeye State,” Kaufmann added. “And the welcome mat is open.”

Democrats have thrown out the mat, as well. Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., a potential presidential candidate in 2028, visited last month to campaign with Nunn’s challenger, state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott.

“There’s a lot more in play here than Washington thinks,” Slotkin said then in an interview. “Eight years ago, this was a swing state, and I think a lot of people have written it off. And I think that’s ill-advised.”

‘Grab the popcorn’ in the governor’s primary

Iowa’s primary for governor has become a particular headache for Republicans.

Gov. Kim Reynolds, a Republican, chose not to seek a third full term as governor.

Rep. Randy Feenstra has long been seen as the front-runner in the five-candidate GOP field. But Zach Lahn, a farmer and businessman, has turned heads with a self-funded campaign and an endorsement from MAHA Action, a group aligned with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s “Make America Healthy Again” movement. Others in the race include former state Administrative Services Director Adam Steen, state Rep. Eddie Andrews and former state Rep. Brad Sherman.

President Donald Trump hasn’t endorsed a candidate, disappointing some Republicans who were hoping his intervention might thin the field. If no candidate gets 35% of the vote in next month’s primary, a convention of grassroots delegates will determine the nominee. A recent Des Moines Register headline asked: “Does Randy Feenstra have a grassroots problem?”

“Randy Feenstra is the only Republican who can defeat Rob Sand and keep the Governor’s office in conservative hands,” Feenstra spokesperson Billy Fuerst wrote in a statement. “Iowans trust Randy because he delivers results and keeps his promises like passing the Farm Bill and enacting the largest tax cuts in Iowa and U.S. history.”

Other Republicans were reluctant to make predictions.

“I don’t know,” state Rep. Ray Sorensen, a member of the state party’s central committee, replied when he was asked how he sees the primary unfolding. “Grab the popcorn and sit down.”

“Republicans are trying to find out who their guy is,” he added. “The Democrats already know.”

Kaufmann and other GOP leaders concede Sand’s strengths as a candidate, including fundraising that draws from his wife’s wealthy family. But Kaufmann chalked up much of the buzz around Sand, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary, to “hype.”

Sand, Kauffman added, has packaged himself as a moderate without taking stands that would either align him more closely with progressives or alienate them.

Kollin Crompton, a spokesperson for the Republican Governors Association, which invests in competitive races, said: “That’s the con: campaign as a moderate, govern like a liberal. It’s the same playbook Democrats used with Abigail Spanberger in Virginia. Iowans won’t fall for it.”

Izzi Levy, a spokesperson for the rival Democratic Governors Association, emphasized Sand’s advantage in not having to take arrows in a rancorous primary.

“While Rob Sand is earning support from all 99 counties in Iowa and building a winning coalition that crosses the political spectrum,” Levy said, “all of his Republican opponents are trapped in a nasty primary that shows no signs of letting up as they fall all over themselves trying to tie themselves Kim Reynolds, the most unpopular governor in the country for two years running.”

A scramble for a Senate seat

Democrats aren’t as lucky in the battle for the Senate seat, which is up for grabs after Republican Joni Ernst decided against seeking re-election. Rep. Ashley Hinson is heavily favored to win the GOP nomination. But Democrats have a tough primary between state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls.

The Turek-Wahls fight has exposed ideological tensions within the party. Wahls, who has been endorsed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, has tried to link Turek with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York. Schumer hasn’t endorsed in the race, but there have been signals that he prefers Turek.

But signs that the general election will be competitive, regardless of which Democrat advances, came last month from the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, which committed at least $29 million to an Iowa ad blitz designed to help Hinson. Turek has described the super PAC’s plans as a “rescue” effort for Hinson, betraying national Republican fears that the seat is flippable.

That’s close to how much the Senate Leadership Fund spent in Iowa in 2020, when Ernst won re-election by 6.5 percentage points amid nine figures worth of outside spending.

“Ashley Hinson is a tremendous candidate and will be a critical part of the Republican Senate majority,” Chris Gustafson, the Senate Leadership Fund’s communications director, said in a statement. “We look forward to supporting her to ensure Iowa continues to be represented by a strong conservative senator.”

Iowa Democratic Party spokesperson Drew Myers said Democrats would focus on Hinson’s support of Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war.

“Plus, her record of gutting Medicaid and supporting the overturn of Roe v. Wade has never been scrutinized on a statewide level,” Myers added. “Democrats’ recent special election victories show that Iowa is in play, and Iowa voters will reject Hinson’s failing record.”

Addie Lavis, Hinson’s deputy campaign manager, offered a statement taking note of the acrimonious battle on the Democratic side.

“We don’t take anything for granted — but watching the Democrat primary gives us all the confidence you could ask for,” Lavis said. “Ashley will beat whichever crazy liberal they pick. Iowa is behind her — and she’s ready to fight and win.”

Battle for the House runs through Iowa

Vance’s appearance with Nunn here Tuesday signifies White House concerns about preserving the GOP’s House majority. Trump has expressed fears that a Democratic takeover could result in another impeachment of him.

Republicans are playing defense in Nunn’s 3rd District, as well as in the 1st District, where Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is expected to face a tough challenge from former state Rep. Christina Bohannan. Both districts are top Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targets.

Both parties are also keeping close tabs on the 2nd District, which Hinson is leaving to run for the Senate. The National Republican Congressional Committee has included former state Rep. Joe Mitchell, who is seeking the GOP nomination there, in its “MAGA Majority” program for candidates running for open or Democratic-held seats. The DCCC also considers it a district in play. State Rep. Lindsay James is viewed as the leading candidate in the Democratic primary.

But it’s Nunn’s seat that is seen as the most vulnerable. The race has already turned nasty, with Nunn’s allies trying to turn one of Trone Garriott’s projected strengths — her work as a Lutheran minister — into a weakness.

Republicans, for example, have highlighted her defense of a Wiccan prayer offered at the State Capitol in 2015. They also have pointed to her first-person account of her participation in the wedding of two satanists while she was training to be a pastor. Trone Garriott, speaking to the Des Moines Register, recalled her reluctance and her being “irritated” after she was asked to pick the scriptures for the ceremony. But, she concluded, “life and people and love are not perfect.”

A person familiar with Nunn’s campaign previewed a message asserting that “everyday Iowans get a lecture” from Trone Garriott while “witches and satanists get defended in op-eds.”

Trone Garriott, in an interview, responded by criticizing Nunn for his vote for Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

“Politicians like Zach Nunn are attacking my faith and my ministry, because I’ve had the courage to call them out,” she said. “I’ve had the courage to call him out about how his decisions are hurting Iowans. He voted to take away health care from my neighbors, and people are losing their doctors.”

Trone Garriott also mentioned Nunn’s support for Trump’s tariffs and war.

“These are things he needs to be showing up and listening to the people about,” she said, before she noted his scheduled appearance with Vance. “Instead, he’s spending more time with D.C. politicians.”