The first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs has provided a little bit of everything: a sweep, upsets, thrilling finishes and historic comebacks.

And for just the second time since the round went to best-of-7 in 2003, it has provided three Game 7s. (The 2014 playoffs’ opening round had five.)

This year, all the action is in the East. The Philadelphia 76ers knocked out the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of their series Saturday night and will play the New York Knicks in the second round. Sunday’s Game 7 showdowns between the Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors will decide the other conference semifinal matchup.

What drama will these Game 7s provide? NBA insiders Jamal Collier, Zach Kram and Ohm Youngmisuk examine the keys to each series finale and what each team must do to advance.

Game 7 info
Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
ESPN Analytics: CLE 60.1%

The Raptors win if they _____.

Turn Game 7 into a defensive battle. Toronto has prided itself on playing harder than Cleveland for most of this series, creating turnovers, diving for loose balls and winning with defense to close the talent gap. Toronto has gained a lot of confidence as the series has continued, its young players have settled in and its defensive intensity has increased. The Raptors will enter a Game 7 on the road, where all the pressure shifts to the home team. — Collier

The Cavaliers win if they _____.

Limit Toronto’s transition baskets. When Cleveland has avoided turnovers and prevented Toronto from racking up points in transition, the Raptors’ offense has stalled. The Cavs had only one turnover during their fourth-quarter rally in Game 6, and it was nearly enough to clinch the series.

The Cavs need more from star guards Donovan Mitchell and James Harden on offense, but the backcourt’s defense has mostly held the Raptors in check in the half court. If the Cavs can stop giving away easy baskets, they should secure another win at home to advance. — Collier

The X factor of Game 7 is _____.

Harden. His playoff track record is no secret, but the numbers are stunning nonetheless: In seven career Game 7s, Harden has averaged just 19.3 points on 35% shooting, including 22% on 3-pointers. He turned in a strong performance in his first career Game 7 — in 2011 with Oklahoma City — but has shot 41% or worse in every one since.

Harden’s season has ended in a Game 7 in three of the past five seasons; in 2023 and 2025, he failed to reach double digits in points.

Cleveland needs a better version of its point guard against Toronto’s stifling defense. Notably, Harden has scored more than 20 points in every win against the Raptors in this series, but he has been below 20 in every loss. — Kram

Game 7 info
Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
ESPN Analytics: DET 78.9%

The Magic win if they _____.

Deliver the first punch to Detroit with physicality on defense and in the paint. The blueprint to steal Game 7 in Detroit is there for Orlando.

They stole Game 1 with that formula. Jalen Suggs started that game flying around the court like a free safety. Wendell Carter Jr. was a bigger presence in the paint than Jalen Duren. Paolo Banchero knew when to score and distribute when needed.

The Magic, though, had Franz Wagner in Game 1. Wagner (right calf strain) is not expected to play in Game 7 on Sunday. With him out, the Magic will need role players like Tristan da Silva, Anthony Black and Jamal Cain to step up. — Youngmisuk

The Pistons win if they _____.

They are more physical inside.

Cade Cunningham is the best player in this series and will be able to score when needed, especially if Wagner isn’t on the court to try to slow him down. But he needs help.

That starts inside with Duren, who has to win the battles in the paint and establish the physicality that made the Pistons the best team in the East.

But more than anything, the Pistons have to play that same suffocating defense that brought them back from down 24 in the second half of Game 6, so that they don’t need another stunning, come-from-behind win to avoid a disappointing first-round exit. — Youngmisuk

The X factor of Game 7 is _____.

Detroit’s 3-point shooting. It’s common knowledge that the Pistons struggle from distance, ranking 28th in the regular season in 3-point makes (11.0 per game) and 17th in 3-point percentage (35.6%).

They’ve gotten much worse in the playoffs, ranking last in makes (8.7 per game) and percentage (29.7%). Duncan Robinson has shot to his usual standard, and Cade Cunningham has been average from deep, but every other Piston is in a major long-range slump.

But no NBA team is this bad on 3-pointers over a large enough sample. Could Detroit finally get going from the perimeter and make some shots at home in Game 7? — Kram