US Jobs Report to Show Resilience in the Wake of Iran War

(Bloomberg) — The energy shock from the Iran war may be casting a shadow over the outlook for the US economy, but the labor market is yet to register any signs of it.

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Forecasters expect the April jobs report on Friday to show a solid 62,000 increase in payrolls, accelerating wage growth, a stable unemployment rate and an uptick in labor force participation. Private-sector job growth was probably even stronger, based on a Bloomberg survey of economists.

That would mark not only an end to the wild swings in employment during the first three months of the year, but a return to something even better than the 2025 status quo, when monthly private-sector hiring averaged just 25,000.

The optimism stems in part from high-frequency data seen in recent weeks. The number of people filing new claims for unemployment insurance fell in late April to the lowest level since 1969, and ADP’s weekly measure of private-sector payrolls has been picking up as well.

Still, another report due Tuesday is expected to show it’s not entirely clear that the US is breaking out of the “low-hire, low-fire” trend that’s characterized much of the past few years. Job openings in March are projected to be little changed in March from a month earlier.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“So far the US economy has proven resilient to the oil shock, and some parts are even benefiting from the war — for example, trade data will show US energy exports surged into April. One reason activity is holding up is that labor-market conditions appear to be stabilizing, maybe even improving. Job openings look broadly steady, with large firms still hiring even as small firms are not.”

—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Chris G. Collins, Troy Durie & Alex Tanzi. For full analysis, click here

For now, Federal Reserve officials seem more focused on the inflationary impact of higher energy prices than the hit to growth, judging by their interest-rate decision on Wednesday. Investors will monitor appearances by US central bankers for clues on the degree of concern about price pressures.

Among the officials due to speak are New York Fed President John Williams on Monday and the St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem on Wednesday. On Friday, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Mary Daly and Austan Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion.

In Canada, the jobs report for April is expected to show modest gains, keeping unemployment at 6.7%, below September’s 7.1% peak. Weakness is mostly in tariff-hit sectors, while slower population growth is helping hold the rate down.

Elevated crude prices aren’t expected to spur major hiring because energy producers are prioritizing shareholder payouts over expanding production. The surge in oil, however, should help narrow Canada’s goods trade deficit in March from February’s C$5.7 billion ($4.2 billion) shortfall.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will face questions from lawmakers in two committee appearances in Ottawa.

Elsewhere, inflation numbers from South Korea to Switzerland, central-bank decisions including a possible hike in Australia and likely steady outcomes in the Nordics are among the week’s highlights.

Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

Asia

Asia’s data calendar begins with a broad sweep of factory gauges across the region, including manufacturing PMIs.

Consumer price reports due from a number of countries, including South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia, will offer an early gauge of whether higher fuel and transport costs are feeding into broader price pressures. Vietnam data published Sunday showed inflation picked up more than expected in April.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision on Tuesday is the marquee event. Markets will be watching to see whether Governor Michele Bullock delivers a third straight increase in the cash rate, taking it to 4.35%, while updated forecasts reveal how seriously the bank is treating the latest oil shock. Household spending data earlier on Tuesday, along with Melbourne Institute inflation and job ads figures on Monday, should help frame that debate.

Also on Tuesday, Indonesia reports gross domestic product, showing the economy likely contracted in the first quarter. Hong Kong releases advance GDP estimates the same day while Singapore has retail sales.

On Wednesday, New Zealand and the Philippines release employment data, and South Korea reports CPI the same morning. PMIs for Singapore, China and India will offer another read on whether businesses are absorbing the energy shock or beginning to pass it on.

Thursday brings Australia’s trade figures and the Philippines’ first-quarter GDP, before attention turns to Bank Negara Malaysia, which is expected to leave its overnight policy rate unchanged.

Friday rounds out the picture with Japan’s labor cash earnings, final PMIs and a batch of foreign reserves data. South Korea and Taiwan release trade numbers, which will be parsed for signs of whether global demand is softening.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

Following decisions in the euro zone and the UK to keep rates unchanged, attention turns to comments by monetary officials, along with surveys and data showing how fallout from the war is affecting inflation and growth.

One highlight will be a Bank of England conference starting Thursday that features multiple UK policymakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey, as well as European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane.

President Christine Lagarde, Vice President Luis de Guindos and Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel are among other ECB officials set to speak during the week.

In terms of euro-zone-wide numbers, the latest reading of the central bank’s wage tracker will be released on Wednesday. Meanwhile, national manufacturing data will point to how companies fared in March as the war in Iran gathered pace.

The first of those will be French industrial production on Wednesday, followed by factory orders in Germany on Thursday, and then industrial production numbers there and in Spain on Friday.

Meanwhile, Switzerland’s April inflation will come on Tuesday, with economists anticipating an outcome of 0.6%, the highest since 2024. Such a result may lessen pressure on the Swiss National Bank to intervene to curb inflows into the franc.

And in Turkey on Monday, data may show inflation accelerated to 31.3% in April from 30.9% due to higher energy prices driven by the Middle East conflict.

Several monetary decisions are on the schedule throughout the region. Here are some of them:

On Tuesday, Madagascar’s central bank will likely keep its rate at 12% as it assesses the impact of surging oil and food prices spurred by the war.
Poland’s policymakers are likely to hold borrowing costs steady on Wednesday after inflation accelerated in the previous month.
Thursday’s decision by Norway’s policymakers on whether to pivot to tightening will probably be a close call. Most analysts still expect Norges Bank to keep its rate unchanged while signalling a hike to 4.25% in June. A collective wage deal for industry has largely matched the central bank’s outlook, similar to recent inflation data, underscoring no reduction in underlying price pressures.
The same day, Sweden’s Riksbank is widely expected to hold its rate at a three-year low of 1.75% as it awaits clarity on the war’s impact. The central bank has signaled that an eventual spike in inflation — the latest reading is slated for Wednesday — could ultimately prompt higher borrowing costs, while a possible hit to growth could force easing. For now, officials may stick with guidance suggesting gradual hikes starting next year.
The Czech central bank may keep borrowing costs unchanged on Thursday, while their counterparts in Serbia are scheduled for a decision the same day.

Latin America

Chile’s GDP-proxy readings on Monday could show that the Andean economy posted a slight expansion in March, snapping consecutive month-on-month declines but insufficient to head off a shallow first-quarter slump.

Analysts surveyed by the central bank have cut their 2026 growth forecast to 2% from 2.5% previously.

Next up from Chile will be minutes of the central bank’s April 28 decision to hold at 4.5% for a third meeting, followed by the April consumer price report, which may see a monthly jump of 1.5%.

From Brazil, it’s hard to imagine minutes from the central bank’s April rate meeting — the board delivered a second straight quarter-point cut, to 14.5% — serving up surprises or any explicit forward guidance.

In Mexico, April headline and core inflation readings probably both slowed modestly and may persuade the central bank on Thursday to deliver a second straight quarter-point cut, to 6.5%.

Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja on April 28 told Mexican senators that the central bank will consider one more rate cut that may draw a line under the easing cycle it started two years ago.

Colombia’s monetary policy report may do little more than tweak its February forecasts — year-end inflation of roughly 6.3% and growth in line with 2025’s 2.5%.

The minutes of Banrep’s April meeting should prove a must-read for Colombia-watchers after policymakers, under intense pressure from the government, unexpectedly halted a series of rate increases.

The decision to hold the key rate at 11.25% came after Finance Minister Germán Ávila threatened to boycott the meeting, which would have made a vote impossible and effectively paralyzed monetary policy.

Closing out the week, Colombia’s April inflation report will likely show a slight uptick from March’s 5.56% headline reading and the 5.39% core print.

–With assistance from Robert Jameson, Swati Pandey, Vince Golle, Beril Akman, Charlie Duxbury, Laura Dhillon Kane, Mark Evans, Monique Vanek, Ott Ummelas and Piotr Skolimowski.

(Updates with Vietnam inflation in Asia section)