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Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
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In today’s edition, Jonathan Allen breaks down yet another batch of ominous poll numbers for President Donald Trump and the GOP. Plus, our Decision Desk dives into the precinct-level results to explain why the Virginia redistricting election was so close.
And for the sports fans planning to tune into tonight’s NFL Draft, make sure to check out our colleague Ben Kamisar’s mock draft.
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— Adam Wollner
Trump’s poll numbers are worse now than just before the 2018 midterms
Analysis by Jonathan Allen
First, the good news for President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress: There is time — about six months — to stop the bleeding and heal before the midterm elections.
Now, the bad news: Trump’s overall approval rating and Americans’ views of the economy, their top issue, are far lower today than they were just before the GOP lost the House in the 2018 midterms.
A Fox News survey released yesterday evening finds that 34% of registered voters approve of Trump’s handling of the economy. In October 2018, that figure was 49%, according to Fox. The poll didn’t measure how voters felt Trump was handling inflation specifically back then, but today’s number is anemic at 28%.
The fresh data aligns closely with an NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey, released Sunday, which showed 32% of adults approved of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living.
These surveys also deepen a trove of numbers reflecting Americans’ dissatisfaction with the Iran war, which is tied to the economy by spikes in gas prices.
Trump’s troubles on the twin issues dominating his time and national headlines have not thrown his overall approval rating over a cliff. Instead, he has been suffering through a long, slow decline. The latest Decision Desk poll found that 37% of adults approve of his overall job performance, which is the lowest snapshot of his second term so far. That’s down from 39% who said the same in February, 42% in December 2025 and 45% a year ago.
The Fox polling of registered voters generally shows the same trend, with Trump dropping from 49% overall approval in March 2025 to 42% now.
Border security and immigration remain Trump’s strongest issues, but he is still underwater on the latter, with only 46% of registered voters approving of his handling of the issue, according to Fox’s new poll.
Most of the Republican voters who are frustrated with the economy or the Iran war have not abandoned the GOP. But he had his base with him in 2018, when Republicans shed 40 seats in the House and Democrat Nancy Pelosi reclaimed the speaker’s gavel.
At that point eight years ago, his overall approval rating was 47% in the Fox poll — 5 points higher than it is now.
For subscribers: Why the Virginia redistricting referendum wasn’t a slam dunk for Democrats
By Stephen Pettigrew, Makenzie Kerneckel and Ben Kamisar
Democrats are celebrating after Virginia approved a redistricting plan that could help their party net up to four additional congressional seats in the race for control of the House. But it was a close call, thanks to lackluster turnout in Democratic areas and a rightward shift across much of the state, an NBC News Decision Desk analysis of precinct data shows.
Keep reading →
More for subscribers:
- After Eric Swalwell’s exit, one Democrat is getting a fresh look in the California governor’s race, by Adam Edelman
- ICE tells officers to curtail court arrests, stop entering homes without warrants, by Julia Ainsley and Laura Strickler
Iran war update: Trump orders U.S. military to ‘shoot and kill’ Iranian boats mining Strait of Hormuz
President Donald Trump said he ordered the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill any boat” laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and ordered stepped-up efforts to clear existing mines.
The U.S. military also said it has boarded another tanker involved in smuggling Iranian oil as the intensifying maritime standoff between the two countries leaves the key trade route effectively shut. Tehran attacked three commercial ships and seized two of them yesterday, saying the U.S. naval blockade is a “main obstacle” to new peace talks.
Despite the mounting global economic consequences, Trump said there is “no time pressure” in talks with Iran and “no time frame” on ending the war after he extended the ceasefire.
“Please be advised that I am possibly the least pressured person ever to be in this position,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “I have all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t — The clock is ticking!”
Follow live updates →
🗞️ Today’s other top stories
- 🌳 Pot policy: The Justice Department announced that it was moving to ease restrictions on state-licensed medical marijuana, opening the door for more research and treatment options. Read more →
- 📝 Epstein saga: The Justice Department’s internal watchdog is probing whether the department is in compliance with the Epstein Files Transparency Act. Read more →
- ☑️ The ayes have it: Senate Republicans voted early this morning to approve a budget measure that would pave the way for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol funding without any Democratic support. Read more →
- 🎤 RFK hearing fallout: Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. sparked outrage among disability rights advocates with recent comments alleging widespread fraud in Medicaid programs that pay people to care for elderly or disabled family members. Read more →
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.
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