Upcoming byelections in Ontario and Quebec could reshape the parliamentary math and push the Liberals from a minority to a majority government.

But that doesn’t mean it will halt efforts from the Carney government to recruit new floor-crossers or push off an election until 2029, according to Liberal insiders.

Perry Tsergas, a Liberal strategist and president of Spark Advocacy, told iPolitics‘ No Talking Points podcast this week that, while the Liberals would be able to form a functional majority by winning two of the three byelections on April 13, he anticipates that at least one other opposition MP will join the government caucus.

“I know prognostications are dangerous in politics. I think it’s pretty safe to say the PM is going to get his functional structural majority by winning two of these three seats. We can talk about rumours of more floor crossers to come because I do think there will be at least one more,” he said in the latest episode, released on Wednesday.

The Liberals are only on the cusp of forming a majority in the House because of a historic run attracting floor-crossers.

Since Mark Carney led the party to a fourth consecutive election win last April, four opposition MP have joined the Liberals, with former NDPer Lori Idlout the most recent to make the leap.

The party lost two MPs to resignations (Chrystia Freeland and Bill Blair) and another because the Supreme Court invalidated the result in Terrebonne because of a mailing error. Liberal Tatiana Auguste was originally declared the winner after a recount by one vote.

Carney called all three byelections for April 13, the day after the party wraps up its convention in Montreal. Terrebonne is a suburb of Montreal, meaning Liberal members coming to the convention will likely be able to lend a hand on Auguste’s campaign.

Freeland’s and Blair’s former seats in Toronto are considered safe Liberal ridings. Freeland won University-Rosedale with 64 per cent of the vote last spring, and Blair took Scarborough Southwest with a similar vote share.

If the Liberals win two of the three seats, they will be up to 172 seats, the bare minimum for a majority in the House. However, since the speaker is a Liberal and only votes in the case of a tie, it won’t necessarily be easy sailing for the party. That’s because the speaker is required by convention to vote to keep debate alive. This helps the government in non-confidence votes but could thwart efforts to invoke closure to force a vote on a bill.

Winning all three ridings would make life a lot easier for the Liberals and also allow the party to reconfigure committees to ensure they have a majority. Right now, the Liberals could be outvoted by the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois. The NDP and Greens don’t sit on committees as they fall short of the 12-seat threshold for official party status.

Liberal strategist Stevie O’Brien said securing a majority will allow Carney to move faster in delivering his “vision for Canada” by creating a “more stable working environment [with] more productive committees.”

But she said that doesn’t mean he will stop attempting to attract opposition MPs to the Liberals, a task that she claims will be made easier by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s failure to move to the centre.

“There is no reason to suspect it’s over. Poilievre continues to lean right and to continue with his style of that has proven to be not what the Canadian public is responding to right now,” said O’Brien, a principal and co-founder of Barrack Hill Public Affairs.

“The more he leans right, the more disconnected he is with the current temperature. It definitely creates more opportunities for floor crossers.”

Jonathan Kalles, a Liberal strategist and the Quebec vice-president for McMillan Vantage, agreed that Carney likely isn’t done recruiting new floor-crossers, and suggested that Quebec could offer up some opportunities, especially after Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre voiced support for efforts to nominate Don Cherry for the Order of Canada.

Cherry, famous for his Coaches Corner segment on Hockey Night in Canada, is a controversial figure in Quebec for his dismissive comments about hockey players from the province.

Conservative MP Pierre Paul-Hus, Poilievre’s Quebec lieutenant, has publicly voiced his opposition to Cherry’s nomination, citing his comments about Quebeckers.

“I don’t think he [Poilievre] grasps how much much damage it can do in Quebec,” said Kalles about the Cherry controversy, noting that it was a point of discussion recently on Radio-Canada’s Tout le monde en parle, a hugely popular current affairs show in the province.

“His own caucus members, including his absolutely loyal lieutenant Pierre Paul-Hus — not people who supported Jean Charest in the leadership — criticize this. I don’t see Pierre Paul-Hus crossing the floor. But could a few others reconsider their situation? Maybe.”

The other factor looming over discussions is the Liberals’ sky-rocketing polling numbers.

New polls from Spark, Liaison, Nanos and Abacus all have the Liberals opening up double-digit leads over the Conservatives.

An early March survey from Leger — seen as one of the top pollsters in the country – had the Liberals winning the support of 49 per cent of respondents.

It would raise a difficult question for the Liberals if they sweep the byelections next month.

Will they focus on powering through legislation in the House, potentially using their popularity as leverage to dissuade opposition parties from putting up much of a fight? Or is it better to risk it and call an election with the hope that their polling advantage translates into a much stronger majority?

Kalles noted that a bare-bones majority leaves the Liberals with no margin for error.

It would require the government to whip every member on crucial votes and opens up opportunities for backbench MPs to start calling for concessions, he explained.

Then, there’s the prospective of further resignations.

Toronto MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith said he’s planning on running for the leadership of the Ontario Liberals and wants to seek a seat in Queen’s Park in the upcoming provincial Scarborough Southwest byelection.

He said he would resign from the House once Premier Doug Ford calls the vote.

READ MORE: New poll suggests leadership hopeful Avi Lewis could give NDP major boost in Beaches-East York

As iPolitics reported earlier this week, a Mainstreet Research poll suggested that NDP leadership hopeful Avi Lewis could win if he ran for Erskine-Smith’s seat in a byelection.

For Kalles, that’s why even a Liberal sweep next month doesn’t put off a general election until 2029.

“I don’t think the status quo, even if they have a one seat majority, continues for three more years. I think maybe it gets us to June, and then let’s see what happens.”

O’Brien said a Liberal sweep “significantly reduces the likelihood of a 2026 election,” but beyond that, it’s tough to predict.

She said Carney clearly prefers governing over campaigning, though she understands the Liberals’ “temptation to seize the moment” and take advantage of the party’s “incredibly high” polling.

But that brings with it risks and could cut into the prime minister’s appeal, O’Brien said, arguing that “one of the reasons Carney is doing so well and so high in the polls is that people like the sort of stability that he is projecting.”

Kalles agrees that Carney’s focus right now remains on the economy and not campaigning for a new mandate, though said the PM isn’t afraid of going to polls if necessary.

“I think Mark Carney is interested in governing and trying to transform the economy. He’s into getting stuff done and doing it as quickly as possible,” he said.

“He’s got his eye on the ball, and this would be a distraction. He doesn’t want an election, but if he’s forced to because Parliament becomes a distraction because of how opposition parties behave, then I think he would do it so he can get back to business.”

For Tsergas, the Liberals gaining a majority in the House would certainly dissuade Carney from calling an election because the prime minister doesn’t want to be on the campaign trail — if he can help it.

“I think this prime minister has demonstrated he likes to execute. He likes to seek deals with corporations here in Canada, countries abroad.”