With less than four months left of the 2025/26 campaign, Real Madrid are facing a handful of key decisions going into the offseason. Whilst David Alaba is all but confirmed to depart Real on a free transfer, Antonio Rüdiger and Dani Carvajal – both of whom are contracted through June 30, 2026 – face an increasingly uncertain future in Chamartín. There’s also the matter of squad players like Fran García, Dani Ceballos and Brahim Díaz and starting goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, whose contracts are set to expire in 2027. However, there’s zero doubt that the one player whose future is causing the biggest headaches in the building is none other than Vinícius Júnior.

Born in São Gonçalo, Brazil, Vinícius rose through the youth ranks at Flamengo before making his professional debut at 16 years of age: one week later, Vinícius signed a contract with Real Madrid for a fee of €46 million, joining two years later. After a gradual teething process, Vinícius was able to break onto the scene and establish himself as one of the best players in world football in 2021/22, helping Los Blancos win the LaLiga title as well as the UEFA Champions League title and scoring the decisive goal in the Champions League Final vs. Liverpool. All things considered, he racked up 22 goals and 17 assists in 52 matches in 2021/22 and won the inaugural Champions League Young Player of the Season award, before following that up with 23 goals and 19 assists in 55 appearances. Vinícius had the world at his feet: suddenly, Real fans started to believe that they had a worthy successor to Cristiano Ronaldo on the left flank. But it’s one thing to get to the top – it’s another to stay there.

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“Vinícius is a star who belongs in the upper echelon of the world’s best players, but it’s difficult to compare him to Cristiano Ronaldo. I saw Cristiano’s entire rise from a 15-year-old kid at Sporting, and then I worked with him at Al-Nassr when he was 39/40 years old as both an assistant and a head coach,” stated Grêmio assistant coach Vítor Severino. “Having watched his entire journey, it’s difficult to put Vinícius on that same level, but he’s still a tremendous, world-class forward, albeit a completely different profile. There are various high-quality forwards who are doing incredibly well, and Vinícius is one of them, but it will be hard for any of them to come close to what Cristiano and Lionel Messi were able to achieve.”

Vinícius enjoyed an unforgettable 2023/24 season to guide Real to yet another league + Champions League double under Carlo Ancelotti, racking up an astonishing 24 goals and 11 assists in 39 appearances and winning the Champions League Player of the Season after scoring in yet another final. It seemed that the Brazilian winger had finally completed his ascension to one of, if not the best player in world football, and it seemed that he would be rewarded with a maiden Ballon d’Or award. Instead, Rodri pulled off a shock victory over Vinícius, who promised on Twitter, “I will do 10 times as much if it’s necessary. They aren’t ready.”

Fast-forward 16 months, and it’s evident that this has proven to be more of a punchline rather than anything. Vinícius has never quite been able to recover from the shock of missing out on football’s most prestigious individual award at the 11th hour, scoring 22 goals and 19 assists in 58 appearances in 2024/25. This season, Vinícius has failed to deliver the same elite scoring numbers that Real fans have grown used to, scoring just 8 goals and 11 assists in 33 appearances. It begs the question: should Real sign him to a new deal, or should they move on from him this summer? And if they were to sign him to a new deal, just how much money would it take?

Vinícius was able to spearhead Real Madrid to domestic and international glory in 2024 as the attacking centrepiece of the team alongside Jude Bellingham, taking his game up another level to cope with the departure of Karim Benzema. However, he has struggled to adjust to his new backseat-role following the arrival of Kylian Mbappé. Whereas Real’s entire attacking game plan gravitates around their French striker, Vinícius is finding himself on the outside looking in. From being usurped as Real’s highest-earning player to being forced to come off the bench to exiting the pitch a tad earlier than he’d have hoped, Vinícius has had to swallow his pride more than a few times, and it’s clearly taken a toll on his performances on the pitch. Whereas signing him to a long term contract seemed a no-brainer just a year ago, it’s now looking like a genuine dilemma.

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It would be one thing if Vinícius was merely struggling to hit his target and going through form issues, but Vinícius has compounded his issues on the pitch with his tempestuous mood swings. After picking up 16 bookings and one direct red card in 2022/23, Vinícius received 11 yellow cards in 2023/24 before incurring 16 in 2024/25 (as well as a red card), followed by seven yellows this season. Even on February 1, when he opened the scoring in a 2-1 win vs. Rayo Vallecano – his first league goal since October 4 – he nevertheless talked himself into a booking in the final minutes and got himself suspended for their following match at Valencia, where Real prevailed 2-0. Vinícius’s most memorable moment of the campaign hasn’t been a goal or an assist, but stomping off the bench in the midst of a Clásico victory and refusing to include manager Xabi Alonso in his post-match apology.

“Vinícius is a very good winger, but I don’t like how he communicates on the pitch sometimes – even if I do it myself occasionally and get warned by my coach,” stated ZTE top scorer Alen Skribek. “As good a player as he is, I think that he can sometimes do a better job of getting his message across in order to avoid getting a booking.”

Availability is the biggest ability, and whilst Vinícius has steered clear of any major injuries since the start of the 2024/25 season, he hasn’t helped his cause by getting himself needlessly booked and accruing suspension after suspension. If Vinícius is to earn a contract that is befitting of his world-class potential, he needs to start acting his age and delivering both as an attacking talisman and as a leader on and off the pitch. That starts with taking accountability and realizing that he can be his own worst enemy, and taking a deep breath and preventing his emotions from boiling over.

All things considered, Vinícius is undoubtedly one of the best wingers in world football – on his day – as well as one of the most impactful players in the Champions League. Players like him don’t grow on trees, and it’s undeniable that, despite his recent baggage, Real need to be at the very least trying to negotiate a new deal. But just how much is too much?

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He’s currently banking a gross annual salary of €20.83 million (plus €4.17 million in bonuses) second only to Alaba (€22.5 million) and Mbappé (€32.5 million) in the team and only behind a handful of players in world football. Players like Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (€23.9 million), Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane (€25 million), Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (€31.3 million), Manchester United’s Casemiro and Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk (€21.1 million), Al-Nassr’s Cristiano Ronaldo (€42.8 million), and Al-Hilal’s Karim Benzema (€30.6 million). If Vinícius were to leave in 2026, it’s unlikely that he’d have any European team willing to match his reported salary demand well in excess of €30m, which would put him on level playing ground with Mbappé. As such, Real have some degree of leverage – they cannot and should not be giving him a tantamount wage to Mbappé who, in contrast to Vinícius, has consistently delivered the goods since breaking onto the scene a decade ago, and who is only getting better with every passing week.

If Real can negotiate a sweet spot in the region of €22-25 million, as well as a reasonable add-on clause in order to incentivize his attacking resurgence, they should be working together and tying Vinícius down to a long-term contract. But if they aren’t able to do so, they shouldn’t get drawn into a bidding war and mortgage their financial health on a player whose irate outbursts are starting to outweigh his goal-scoring contributions.