Thomas Sargent is a wise man


The protests began on December 28, initially led by traders and business owners who took to the streets against the rapidly weakening economy, soaring inflation, and the sharp fall in the rial’s value. The currency’s decline has been dramatic: against the Indian rupee, the rial is now valued at just 0.000091 paise, while against the US dollar it has fallen to around 0.0000010 cents.

Most strikingly, the rial’s value against the euro has dropped to zero, meaning it is no longer accepted or exchangeable in any of the 27 European Union countries.

Five Key Drivers Behind the Rial’s Freefall

  • US and International Sanctions: Restricting access to dollars from exports, especially oil, has intensified pressure on the rial.
  • Hyperinflation: Consumer prices rose by 42.5% in December 2025, forcing citizens to seek foreign currencies, gold, or essentials instead of holding cash.
  • Weak Economic Growth: Iran’s GDP contracted by 1.7% in 2025, with further shrinkage projected in 2026, limiting government revenue and fiscal stability.
  • Policy Changes: Recent reforms requiring importers to purchase foreign currency at open-market rates increased demand for dollars overnight.
  • Political Unrest: Ongoing protests against clerical leadership and economic mismanagement have added a “risk premium,” accelerating currency depreciation.

Here is the full story.  And that was before what appears to be, as I am writing this post earlier in the evening, the air attack on Iran.

The post Thomas Sargent is a wise man appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.



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