5 things we learned during S&P 500 earnings madness

And just like that, I’m off to the land of $6 gas prices.

That would be California. I promise to take pictures of Chevron gas signs and post them on my X account, @BrianSozzi, for you Northeastern folks getting off easy with $4 gas.

It’s time for an annual tradition: the Milken conference.

This one is a favorite because you never know who you will run into. One moment, you see Gwyneth Paltrow talking to an assistant at the entrance of the Beverly Hilton. The next minute, you catch a brief glimpse of Tesla CEO Elon Musk on stage (last year) with host Mike Milken.

BEVERLY HILLS, CALIFORNIA - MAY 6: Elon Musk, co-founder of Tesla and SpaceX and owner of X Holdings Corp., speaks at the Milken Institute's Global Conference at the Beverly Hilton Hotel,on May 6, 2024 in Beverly Hills, California. The 27th annual global conference explores various topics, from the rise of generative AI to electric vehicle trends and features participants, soccer star David Beckham and actor Ashton Kutcher. (Photo by Apu Gomes/Getty Images) — Elon Musk, co-founder of Tesla and SpaceX and owner of X Holdings Corp., speaks at the Milken Institute’s Global Conference at the Beverly Hilton Hotel,on May 6, 2024, in Beverly Hills, Calif. (Apu Gomes/Getty Images) · Apu Gomes via Getty Images

As for me, I’ll be live on Yahoo Finance on Monday and Tuesday with some awesome interviews. I say this each year, but this is truly the best lineup of power players descending to Yahoo Finance’s setup inside the hotel lobby.

I will add that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is slated to attend. He didn’t make much news at the conference last year, but waxed poetic about artificial intelligence’s impact on jobs. His comments got a few media write-ups. But what he says this time could be more interesting, given hyperscalers’ recent increases in capital expenditures and semiconductor stocks’ recent run.

Heading into Milken, my head is chock full of lessons from a very busy week of earnings from S&P 500 heavyweights.

Lesson one: The market is wary of AI capex spending plans across all companies because the technology has yet to deliver strong returns on profit margins. It’s unclear when the payback will happen, but it may not be 2027 either.

Lesson two: As long as billions are being plowed into US AI infrastructure, it’s going to be very hard to make a strong bear case for stocks — even as Iran conflict concerns swirl and drive up oil prices. I think what billionaire investor Bill Ackman told me this week about why he’s bullish on the market makes a lot of sense.

Lesson three: Investors are yearning for more AI-driven layoffs from corporate America. Expect more headline-grabbing layoffs to be announced before year-end.

Lesson four: It’s going to take $5-a-gallon gas nationwide to start to take down the US consumer. The resilience of consumers continues to surprise me. They are out there buying new Hot Wheels toys from Mattel (MAT) (or so said Mattel’s earnings release), spending money on matcha teas from Starbucks (SBUX) (as Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol told me this week), and devouring new cilantro-lime sauce from Chipotle (CMG) (which is a paid add-on).

Lesson five: Nobody cares about the midterm elections right now — it’s a nothingburger in terms of markets. So if a company calls this out as a reason for a numbers miss, roll your eyes.