The only truly known pick is at the top, with the Raiders and Mendoza, who will bring to a close three years of searching for a franchise quarterback after the team turned the page on the Derek Carr era.

I’m sticking with the belief around the league that Bailey will be the pick here, as reported by our Jonathan Jones late last week, following the cancellation of his top-30 visit, even with the betting market building momentum around Arvell Reese in this spot.

Details of the trade are above, as the Chiefs take the opportunity that comes with owning a top-10 pick by packaging multiple resources to acquire premium edge-rush talent in Reese. Steve Spagnuolo will get the opportunity to mold the elite talent from Ohio State into a world-beater on defense who can complement the one the Chiefs have at quarterback.

The draft breaks down to three blue-chip talents at premium positions who will likely go with the first three picks, then potentially three blue-chip talents at non-premium positions in running back, off-ball linebacker and safety. If the Titans choose to stick with the premium position model, we could see a receiver or Rueben Bain here, but most believe Love will be brought in to boost the offense.

I didn’t think Styles made the most sense for the Giants at No. 5 before Saturday’s trade, which affords them more luxury to draft a non-premium position first and then target a receiver, cornerback or offensive lineman at No. 10. The blue-chip linebacker will have lofty expectations should he find himself inside the top five.

The Browns have prioritized versatility in their offensive line rebuild, and that continues with a prospect in Fano who could line up at tackle, guard or even center. Receiver has not been a point of emphasis at the top of drafts for the Browns, but they may be one to watch out for in A.J. Brown trade discussions down the road.

If Tate gets by the Giants and Browns, he makes a ton of sense for the Commanders here to be the long-term WR1 replacement for another former Buckeye in Terry McLaurin, who turns 31 in September. Jayden Daniels’ weapons have to improve to give the young quarterback the best chance at success.

While this is a sensible spot for a receiver, even if Tate is off the board thanks to the positive workout from Jordyn Tyson, Bain is too good to pass up for New Orleans at another premium position as the last of the three top-tier edge rushers.

The Cardinals can move down and still get a top tackle in this slot, or the position could be addressed later in the first round if they can pick up an additional pick on Thursday in a move down. In this mock, they land Nos. 9, 29 and 148 along with a 2027 second-round pick in the move down.

The timing of the Dexter Lawrence trade was surely interesting, coming off Tyson’s pro day, where he apparently made a favorable impression on Giants brass. Pairing Tyson with Malik Nabers is a nightmare for NFC defenses, provided both can stay healthy.

Downs has a case to go in the top five, just like popular mock picks Jeremiyah Love and Sonny Styles, and this would be an excellent value for the Dolphins landing the last blue-chip prospect at a non-premium position without having to trade into the top 10.

You could argue either way for Delane and Downs to be taken 11th and 12th if these teams are still holding those picks, and the Cowboys would surely be happy to land the top corner in the draft without sacrificing anything to move up. Much like after the third pick, there appears to be a tier break if this is the top 12 come Thursday.

Proctor is a talent who could straddle the aforementioned tier break and potentially even be the first tackle off the board. Once he falls outside the top 12, the Lions must get aggressive to land him, and we know the Rams are always on board with a trade down that amasses assets.

With the Ravens sniped on Proctor, they pivot instead to the best pure guard prospect in the class to address the interior of an offensive line that just lost Tyler Linderbaum at center. Ioane should start for Baltimore for the next decade.

Much like at Nos. 11 and 12, I believe Ioane and Sadiq will be the picks at Nos. 14 and 15, but I have no idea what order they’ll be in. Both make sense for the Ravens and Bucs, who can use the talented tight end to help make up for the loss of Mike Evans and ease the burden on the young receiver group.

Lemon is typically not around past the Rams pick in mocks, but with them trading back, the Jets have the opportunity to add the tough slot receiver as a desperately needed passing-game weapon. I could also see the Jets getting aggressive with this pick and making a trade up for a second top-10 pick should the right prospect make it out of the top five.

Some will see this as the Rams getting sniped for Lemon, but I believe Cooper makes far more sense as a long-term replacement for Davante Adams, a sorely needed move for a franchise that must set itself up for the post-Matthew Stafford world as much as chase titles now.

McCoy could go as high as fifth overall or fall out of the first round, depending on how teams are treating his medical evaluation, but he should be a full go for 2026, coming off a torn ACL suffered in January 2025, so anything outside the top 10 feels like a gamble worth taking.

Often paired with the Vikings, Thieneman lasts one additional slot and becomes a third big addition to the Panthers’ defense this year, along with edge rusher Jaelen Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd. With Tet McMillan looking like a bona fide WR1, Carolina can wait to address their receiver need until Day 2.

I can’t imagine the Cowboys using two picks inside the top 20 and not coming away with a player in the trenches, and Faulk is the type of versatile defender who should be coveted for incoming defensive coordinator Christian Parker’s system.

I consider this the third-tier break when it comes to first-round talent, and anyone below this I’d have no trouble leaving out of the first round. That’s why the Steelers fans shouldn’t feel too bad about sitting tight at No. 21 as the night marches slowly along, as Freeling could be the answer at left tackle that’s been missing in Pittsburgh.

The Chargers would certainly love to trade down if this is how the board shakes out, and maybe someone will be interested enough in Ty Simpson to put together a package. But if it’s not the Jets or Cardinals, I don’t know that it makes sense, and either or both could have their eyes on the 2027 QB class. Bisontis is a fringe first-rounder who addresses a position of need.

The Eagles have the luxury of developing the impressive but raw Ihenachor behind their stellar tackle pairing before he eventually takes over for Lane Johnson, setting up another succession plan on the Eagles’ offensive line.

This may still be too early for a receiver for Cleveland, especially if they plan to get involved in the A.J. Brown market, but Concepcion is a good value at this point of the draft who could be a part of an upgraded receiver room that is sorely needed in Cleveland.

Edge rusher becomes a bit of “choose your fighter” late in the first round with several different archetypes available, but if Chicago doesn’t want to look purely run defense with a defensive tackle, they could opt for Parker as an edge who can give them a boost against the run while developing as a pass rusher as well.

The Bills should be looking for scheme fits as Jim Leonhard takes over on defense, and there may not be one better on the edge than Young. With no second-round pick, it may make sense to explore a trade down before taking him, but that assumes there will be interest in teams moving up.

The 49ers could be in the tackle or edge rusher discussions, but this feels like a good value for McNeil-Warren to address a need at safety for incoming defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. Even though John Lynch hasn’t prioritized his former position in past years, this could be an opportunity to grab one of the best three safeties in the class.

Slotting an offensive lineman in for the Texans makes a ton of sense, as always, and Miller is a candidate to go much higher should the position be more of an emphasis for the teams picking in the back half of the first round. Caleb Lomu is also available if the team prefers a more natural fit on the left side.

The Cardinals use the late first acquired in the move down to No. 9 to scoop up Simpson with the Jets standing pat with their second-round pick. Opinions are split on Simpson as they are with any QB who is not locked into a consensus first-round evaluation, and this would allow the Cardinals a year to develop him as a potential long-term option heading into next year’s draft.

With Jon-Eric Sullivan coming from Green Bay, it would not surprise to see the Dolphins pass on receiver twice in the first round, but the positional depth chart is in much worse shape than it ever was with the Packers. Boston has enough buzz that it wouldn’t surprise to see him go in the 19-24 range.

The Super Bowl showed the Patriots need to improve their protection in front of Drake Maye, and there should be enough fringe first-round talent they can land without a move up. Lomu could go much higher as a more proven left tackle option, though he would move to the right side in New England.

Our second Chiefs trade sends Nos. 40, 74 and 169 for No. 96 and this pick so that they can help address the loss of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, both to the Rams. The Seahawks are better positioned to take a running back with one of their first three picks after this deal and still add some quality depth after entering draft night with just four picks.