📈 A first for Bill 5


Welcome to Economic Insights, a twice-weekly newsletter focusing on major projects and the Canadian economy at large.

Stories we are following:

  • ALBERTA is signalling that it will likely miss the April 1 deadline for a high-stakes agreement with OTTAWA on industrial carbon pricing and the Pathways project. Premier DANIELLE SMITH’s office says “more work” is needed.
  • ONTARIO Premier DOUG FORD plans on taking over the TORONTO‘s share of the BILLY BISHOP AIRPORT, and make the area into one of Bill 5’s special economic zones – marking the first time his government has made use of that power.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith answers questions at a news conference in Calgary, on Friday, Feb. 20, 2026. (Todd Korol/The Canadian Press)
Deadline loomingALBERTA is unlikely to meet the April 1 deadline for at least two of the four agreements that need to be reached on that day, as per the Memorandum of Understanding with OTTAWA signed last fall.

  • The issue: The province agreed to work with the federal government to ramp up the minimum effective credit price of carbon to $130 per tonne. It also agreed to enter into an agreement with the companies behind PATHWAYS in a bid to advance the stalled carbon capture project.  In a statement, Premier SMITH‘s office says “there is still more work to do” on those pieces. 
  • Pitching in: The province and federal governments are already covering about two thirds of the capital costs for PATHWAYS through investment tax credits.
  • What’s the hold up? ALBERTA is citing affordability and competitiveness concerns. The oil patch is saying they shouldn’t be burdened with a carbon price so they can compete with other firms on the global stage, as few jurisdictions put a price on carbon.
  • Faded rally: The province’s carbon market is extremely sensitive to policy announcements, and the rally the market saw after the signing of the MOU last fall has since faded, with a return to carbon credits trading around the $30 per tonne mark.
  • Other deals: Four agreements have to be reached by April 1, as per the MOU. The one for co-operation on impact assessment was reached in early March; it was low-hanging fruit. Another one on methane regulations should be released very shortly, according to SMITH‘s office.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks at an event at Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport on Monday March 23, 2026. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press)
Ford vs. TorontoONTARIO‘s DOUG FORD had some harsh words for the CITY OF TORONTO on Monday, slamming municipal leadership as ‘closed minded’ and unwilling to take steps to create economic growth or jobs. This, as he announced his government would take over the city’s share of BILLY BISHOP AIRPORT and make it into a special economic zone.

  • The sentiment: FORD wants control to expand the airport’s runway and allow larger jets to land minutes from downtown. He took aim at “lefties” on city council worried about the noise and environmental impacts.
  • Bill 5: The airport is set to become the province’s first ‘special economic zone’ where ONTARIO and municipal laws do not apply, and much of the decision-making rests with cabinet.
  • Interesting move: ALEX LUSTY, lawyer with land development-focused firm DAVIES HOWE, told iPolitics he and his team had long expected the law would be used in a mining, forestry, or aggregates context.

“I think what it tells us is that the use of Special Economic Zones may be a lot broader than what we initially anticipated,” he said.

  • Federal reax: Ottawa’s Transport Minister, STEVE MACKINNON, said any future decision about BILLY BISHOP will require the consensus of all signatories to the tripartite agreement, but that he’s listening to FORD very closely. Toronto LIBERAL MPs were noticeably quiet following FORD‘s announcement.

By the numbers

2: The number of deep geological repositories now being planned by the NUCLEAR WASTE MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATION.

$500M: The estimated cost of the initial land acquisition and surveying phase for the ALTO high speed rail corridor.

4 per cent: The royalty rate NOVA SCOTIA is considering for gross revenues on offshore wind projects after a decade of operation.

Major projects watch

— NOVA SCOTIA is poised to pass a new law defining how the province will earn money from offshore wind, but some industry insiders say the province needs to iron out more details before developers will be ready to invest. (Read more from CBC)

— The NWMO has released its latest triennial report, confirming work has begun on a second repository project set to house intermediate-level and non-fuel high-level waste, in addition to used nuclear fuel from new nuclear reactors in the future.

— The MONTREAL PORT AUTHORITY has yet to confirm whether it will comply with a House committee motion calling on it to comply with municipal and environmental regulations, following reports some industrial CONTRECOEUR lands it owns are contaminated with petroleum and various metals. (CP reports)

— ALTO is moving to the next stage of its environmental study for a high-speed rail project between Toronto and Quebec City, a process that could involve requests to access private lands to study soil, waterways, noise, flora and fauna.

Headlines



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