UConn, South Carolina, Texas and UCLA all made last year’s Final Four. This fall, those four teams were ranked atop the AP Top 25 poll and though the weekly rankings shifted a tad, they remained a step above the rest all season long. March is known for its madness, but it has felt almost inevitable that those teams — the four No. 1 seeds in this year’s women’s NCAA Tournament — again would convene for the Final Four, this time in Phoenix.

And, what do you know? All four No. 1 seeds won their Sweet 16 games by more than 20 points and are just one game away from making that a reality.

However, nobody is going to gift them a ticket to the desert; they still have to face some fierce opposition. So, ahead of the Elite Eight, which begins on Sunday, here are our rankings — from least to most likely — of the four underdogs and their ability pull off a major upset. 

4. TCU (over South Carolina)

No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 3 TCU, Monday, 9 p.m. ET

Olivia Miles had everyone in awe as she flirted with another triple-double in Saturday’s win against Virginia with 28 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. Marta Suarez was also clutch with 33 points and 10 boards. But as impressive as those stats were, the Horned Frogs were not in control the entire game. 

As coach Mark Campbell pointed out, the third quarter was the separator. This has been a trend all season, which will be dangerous against a team like South Carolina that can come out strong and put the game away in the first half.

“I think our team, and it’s been all year, I think we just get a little too excited at the start,” Miles said. “We have a lot of young pieces and people who are new, obviously 10 new players still gaining that chemistry game by game. It just takes us a quarter or a half to settle in, take their punches, realize what they are doing to us and, like we’ve proven all year, we can settle down, be mature, be poised and find our rhythm offensively and defensively.”

Virginia’s Cinderella run was impressive and this was a team that definitely should not have been counted out so easily. The Cavaliers were even making a valiant comeback attempt in the fourth quarter. They deserve credit for everything they achieved, but Dawn Staley and the Gamecocks have a lot more experience on the big stage. 

South Carolina, 13.5-point favorites over TCU at DraftKings, is chasing its sixth consecutive Final Four appearance, a streak that includes national championships in 2022 and 2024 and a runner-up finish last year. On Monday, the Horned Frogs will have to lock in way before halftime if they want to be competitive. – Isabel Gonzalez

3. Notre Dame (over UConn)

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 6 Notre Dame, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

I want to be clear about one thing: It feels incredibly wrong to rank any team that has Hannah Hidalgo playing the way she is right now ranked this low on any list, no matter the context.

As UConn coach Geno Auriemma said Saturday — after he took the NCAA to task — Hidalgo’s run this March has just been otherworldly. She’s averaging 26.7 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and 8.7 steals per game this tournament. Against No. 2 Vanderbilt, she was just three assists shy of a 30-point quadruple-double, which sounds fake even though I saw it with my own two eyes.

“She’s just a unique player that comes along once in a lifetime, and she has the ability to disrupt and cause chaos like nobody I’ve ever seen,” Auriemma said.

Hannah Hidalgo steals the show, powers Notre Dame past Vanderbilt, into Elite Eight with historic performance

Shehan Jeyarajah

But, the thing is, UConn and Notre Dame already faced off once this season. The Huskies won that game, 85-47. And while the Fighting Irish are playing much better than they were in January and have KK Bransford back from injury, UConn is also playing better than it was in January.

Notre Dame, an astounding 27.5-point underdog, is the lowest-seeded team left in the tournament and should be fourth on this list, because UConn almost never loses before the Final Four, especially when it is the No. 1 overall seed. But Hidalgo’s form in this tournament has been so special, it has me believing in the impossible ever so slightly. – Lindsay Gibbs

2. Michigan (over Texas)

No. 1 Texas vs. No. 2 Michigan, Monday, 7 p.m. ET

After Texas defeated Kentucky 76-54 in the Sweet 16, Kentucky coach Kenny Brooks said Texas was “on another planet” and “is as well-constructed a team as I’ve ever seen in women’s basketball.” Brooks is no newcomer in this world, so that’s quite a statement — and not an unfounded one.

So, why is Michigan second in these rankings? Well, because Michigan has already pushed two No. 1 seeds to the brink this season, losing to both UConn and UCLA by just three points each. Syla Swords and Olivia Olson, Michigan’s superstar sophomore duo, have proved that they are not intimidated by facing the most elite teams in the nation.

Plus, Michigan has looked great so far this NCAA Tournament. In the Sweet 16, the Wolverines struggled in the first quarter against Louisville, and the game was still close in the third. But then Michigan went on a soul-sucking 20-2 run, fueled by Olson and Swords.

Still, Michigan will need help to get the upset. In the Kentucky game, Texas point guard Rori Harmon jammed her middle finger, and she told reporters afterward that it was “really swollen.” Harmon didn’t seem necessarily worried about the injury, and I have little doubt that she will play on Monday evening. 

However, if she’s not herself, it might just give Michigan (10.5-point underdogs) the opening it needs to shock the world. – Gibbs

1. Duke (over UCLA)

No. 1 UCLA vs. No. 3 Duke, Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

To be clear, these rankings were not easy because the No. 1 seeds have all taken care of business in dominant fashion. However, Duke seems to have the best chance at an upset for a few reasons. The Ashlon Jackson buzzer-beater against LSU on Friday is the type of spark that could fuel the confidence a team needs for an even bigger upset. The win also showed how far the Blue Devils have come from the beginning of the season because LSU was one of their early losses. 

Interestingly, when UCLA saw Jackson’s shot go in on Friday, Bruins coach Cori Close said her players “were going crazy.” 

On one hand, UCLA beat Duke 83-66 at the Players Era in November without Lauren and Sienna Betts. On the other hand, this is also a much-improved Duke team. Blue Devils coach Kara Lawson highlighted both sides of the argument and said her team needs to be aware that they will need to play the best basketball they have played all season. 

“We’re mindful of how much better we have to play just to be in the game, and we’re focused on putting together a game plan against one of the best teams in the country,” Lawson said. 

Duke’s Ashlon Jackson becomes March hero: Buzzer-beater vs. LSU is full-circle moment in more ways than one

Isabel Gonzalez

The Bruins (11.5-point favorites) are certainly intimidating, but nothing is guaranteed in March. UCLA got a 24-point victory over Minnesota in the Sweet 16 on Friday, but the first half was not as lopsided as the 90-56 final score implies. The Bruins only had a six-point lead at the break while struggling to be consistent on offense. Minnesota actually won the second quarter by holding UCLA to just 16 points.

Unproductive periods could be costly in March, so perhaps Duke could capitalize on them. The UCLA defense might be the biggest challenge because the Bruins rely on this area when shots are not falling. One of the moments that helped them find momentum against Minnesota was getting three blocks in a single possession — that’s how brutal the Bruins can be to their opponents.

Duke has multiple players who can put up points in bunches as Jackson (19 points), Toby Fournier (22) and Taina Mair (22) in the Sweet 16 against LSU. Having more than one primary scorer could put the Blue Devils in position to pull off a stunner. – Gonzalez