Where Purdue basketball stands in March Madness bracket: Possible seed, location

CHICAGO — Purdue men’s basketball’s run at the Big Ten Tournament likely brought some clarity to which NCAA Tournament seed it will receive Sunday.

Boilermakers coach Matt Painter thinks so, too, saying he expects to be a 3 seed. However, he believes Sunday’s championship game against Michigan could mean a big geographical difference.

With a win, Purdue strengthens its chances of moving up the seed line and being assigned to St. Louis for the opening weekend. With a loss, that assignment likely goes to Illinois. The Boilers could instead be sent to Greenville, South Carolina, to start the tourney.

“I think we change cities with a win,” Painter said. “I don’t think we can change cities without a win. Whether we’ll be in Greenville or St. Louis depends on tomorrow.”

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – MARCH 14: Fletcher Loyer #2 of the Purdue Boilermakers celebrates a three pointer against the UCLA Bruins in the first half during the semifinals of the 2026 Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament at the United Center on March 14, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – MARCH 14: Xavier Booker #1 of the UCLA Bruins dunks the ball against the Purdue Boilermakers in the first half during the semifinals of the 2026 Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament at the United Center on March 14, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – MARCH 14: Head coach Matt Painter of the Purdue Boilermakers reacts against the UCLA Bruins in the first half during the semifinals of the 2026 Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament at the United Center on March 14, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – MARCH 14: Eric Dailey Jr. #3 of the UCLA Bruins goes up for a layup against the Purdue Boilermakers in the first half during the semifinals of the 2026 Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament at the United Center on March 14, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – MARCH 14: Head coach Mick Cronin of the UCLA Bruins talks with Xavier Booker #1 against the Purdue Boilermakers in the first half during the semifinals of the 2026 Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament at the United Center on March 14, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Mar 14, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard Fletcher Loyer (2) reacts after scoring against the UCLA Bruins during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – MARCH 14: Trey Kaufman-Renn #4 of the Purdue Boilermakers celebrates against the UCLA Bruins in the first half during the semifinals of the 2026 Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament at the United Center on March 14, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – MARCH 14: Braden Smith #3 of the Purdue Boilermakers celebrates against the UCLA Bruins in the first half during the semifinals of the 2026 Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament at the United Center on March 14, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Mar 14, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Purdue Boilermakers center Oscar Cluff (45) drives to the basket against the UCLA Bruins during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Mar 14, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; UCLA Bruins forward Eric Dailey Jr. (3) shoots against the Purdue Boilermakers during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The consensus of the projections on the Bracket Matrix website Saturday night had Illinois and Purdue ninth and 10th on the seed line, respectively. That projection could change as brackets are updated into Sunday morning.

Illinois went into Saturday one spot higher than Purdue in the NCAA’s NET rankings (8-9). Purdue has a better record in Quad 1 games (10-8 vs. 7-8), more Quad 2 wins (six vs. five) and a better Strength of Record ranking (15 vs. 17).

If geography truly is at stake, it could set up rather easily for the selection committee. It can prepare one bracket with Purdue in St. Louis and one with Illinois there and decide which one to go with after the Big Ten championship game.

An assignment in St. Louis would be nice for fans in Indiana and around the Midwest. It may have greater implications on actual game play, though.

First-round games in St. Louis do not begin until Friday. Greenville games start Thursday. With Purdue not returning home until late Sunday night after the Big Ten Tournament championship game, the extra rest would seem beneficial.

Purdue cannot control what happens next, but by playing well in Chicago this week, it pushed itself away from falling to a 4 seed. That would have meant a potential Sweet 16 clash with one of the 1 seeds — teams such as Duke, Arizona and Florida who have separated with their season-long performance.

“I’m proud of we’re the only school in the country that’s been a top 4 seed nine years in a row,” Painter said. “Proud of our program, more proud of how we’ve done it, and we just got to keep it going.”

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This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Purdue March Madness bracket predictions for 2026 NCAA Tournament, location

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