What to watch this week

Stocks closed on Friday near record highs, with the S&P 500 sitting just below the 6,900 mark as a twitchy bond market looks ahead.

A busy calendar will greet investors this week, with the last Fed meeting — and press conference from Chair Jerome Powell — of 2025 highlighting the action.

On the corporate side, we have Wednesday circled, with Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe’s (ADBE) quarterly results and Broadcom (AVGO) and Costco (COST) headlining the proceedings on Thursday.

The economic calendar will continue last week’s labor market theme, with delayed JOLTS data from October coming out on Tuesday to elucidate hirings, firings, and quits.

The Federal Reserve rate-setters are back in the conference room on Tuesday, and the public eagerly awaits Wednesday’s announcement and press conference from Powell, which will be scrutinized for any clues on the central bank’s path ahead.

Last week’s economic data showed cracks in the labor market, with data from ADP and the firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showing unexpected job losses and elevated layoffs. Thanks largely to that weakness, investors have grown near certain that a 25 basis point rate cut is coming, from 3.75% to 4.00% to a new target of 3.50% to 3.75%.

Read more: How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related

Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reading, which showed inflation moderating in September, has only further solidified the market’s expectation.

But like a good movie, there’s always something to chew on, even if we have the ending all but spoiled.

First and foremost will be Powell’s comments and Q&A session in the press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Though the 2 p.m. decision may not move markets if the commentary is tight in the press release, the more freewheeling format is still blue-chip appointment viewing.

The market will also receive the year’s final Summary of Economic Projections, more commonly known as the “dot plot,” which will outline how the rate-setters envision the coming year (and beyond) unfolding in the US economy.

Other points of intrigue line this meeting: For one, it will be the last with the current makeup of voting members setting rates. The presidents of the Cleveland, Minneapolis, Dallas, and Philadelphia Feds will all rotate in, tagging out their counterparts from Boston, Chicago, St. Louis, and Kansas City.

Also, speculation over Powell’s replacement has reached a fever pitch in recent days, with President Trump promising a nominee by early next year. Trump’s top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, is largely seen as the favorite, even as bond investors have grown jittery over his potential appointment.

Finally, the best guesses are only as good as the data the deciders are using — and that post-shutdown data is either delayed, canceled, or asterisked in some way as the discombobulated departments dust themselves off.

Stocks closed the week on Friday on a positive note as investors looked toward the (now even more certain) Fed cut on Wednesday.

But despite once again riding record highs, there’s a chance that what seems to be the beginning of a “Santa Claus rally” to close out the year may be imperiled, according to Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett.

Chef Jose Andres (L) and Santa Claus pose for pictures on the floor at the closing bell of the Dow Industrial Average at the New York Stock Exchange on December 5, 2019 in New York. - Wall Street stocks finished slightly higher following a choppy session that avoided the big swings from earlier in the week on trade-oriented headlines. US and Chinese negotiators are working to finalize a preliminary trade deal announced in October that would block new tariffs expected to take effect this month. Officials have sent mixed signals on the talks, sending shares gyrating. (Photo by Bryan R. Smith / AFP) (Photo by BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP via Getty Images) — Chef Jose Andres (L) and Santa Claus pose for pictures on the floor at the closing bell of the Dow Industrial Average at the New York Stock Exchange on December 5, 2019 in New York. (Photo by Bryan R. Smith / AFP) (Photo by BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP via Getty Images) · BRYAN R. SMITH via Getty Images

A rate cut would be welcome, sure. But investors want to have it all: a rate cut, a strong economy, and slowing inflation. The trouble, Hartnett notes, is that a rate cut from a dovish Fed may spook the market, sending bond yields up and stocks down.

Yet another reason to pay attention to Powell’s comments and the economic projections from the FOMC members. Circle your calendar.

As Hartnett and our 10-year bond quote page (^TNX) make very clear, the bond market is continuing to feel stressed about the Fed’s trajectory in the year ahead. Yields ticked up further on Friday as one of the worst weeks in months came to a close with the 10-year yield rising over 10 basis points.

Though Friday’s inflation reading seemingly cemented a cut on Wednesday, the still-higher-than-target inflation reading casts doubt on 2026 cuts. Things are feeling … hawkish — even if Hassett does get the job as Fed chair, the market is starting to doubt he can deliver on Trump’s wish for rapid cuts.

With Friday’s inflation data having the last word over the week’s earlier employment warnings of layoffs and private payroll losses, this will be yet another question for the Fed to answer on Wednesday, at least in the near term.

More color to that picture should finally arrive on Dec. 16, when the jobs report finally gets put back on the rails with November’s data.

The idea that bitcoin (BTC-USD) is digital gold rang true in a way this year, as outflows from the dollar were captured in part by the cryptocurrency at various times. (But more so by actual gold (GC=F), which zoomed up almost 60% this year.)

Even its critics have to hand it to the cryptocurrency: It’s currently a non-stock, non-cash store of value that’s been consistently worth somewhere between $75,000 and $120,000 this year.

But bitcoin has an actual history of not being like gold, because it’s consistently ridden waves of risk-on sentiment, zooming up with tech stock bets and meme stock frenzy, and receding when things get a bit more conservative. More simply, it often moves in tandem with stocks.

This year, however, bitcoin is poised for its first diversion from stocks since 2014, at least directionally. As the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up over 16%, bitcoin is solidly in the red. Even if it makes it out of negative territory, the distinction may be somewhat academic, as a major gulf between the two performances is unusually wide.

With another fairly volatile day on Friday, bitcoin remains on our watchlist this week.

Economic data: New York Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, November (3.24% previously)

Earnings: Toll Brothers (TOL), The Children’s Place (PLCE)

Economic data: BLS releases Sept. & Oct. JOLTS data; NFIB small business optimism, November (98.2 previously); JOLTS job openings, October; JOLTS job openings rate, October; JOLTS quits level, October; JOLTS quits rate, JOLTS layoffs level, October; JOLTS layoffs rate, October

Earnings: AutoZone (AZO), Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), Casey’s General Stores (CASY), SailPoint (SAIL), GameStop (GME), The Campbell’s Company (CPB), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI), Braze (BRZE), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY)

Economic data: FOMC rate decision; MBA mortgage applications, week ended Dec. 5 (-1.4% previously); Employment cost index, third quarter (0.9% expected, 0.9% previously); Federal budget balance, November (-$284.4 billion previously)

Earnings: Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), Synopsys (SNPS), Chewy (CHWY), Nordson Corporation (NDSN), Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC), Vail Resorts (MTN), Planet Labs (PL), REV Group (REVG)

Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ended Dec. 6; Continuing claims, week ended Nov. 29; Wholesale inventories, month-on-month, September final reading; Wholesale trade sales, month-on-month, September (0.1% previously)

Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST), Lululemon (LULU), Netskope (NTSK), National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ), RH (RH), Vizsla Silver Corp. (VZLA), Uranium Royalty Corp. (UROY)

Economic data: No notable economic data.

Earnings: Rent the Runway (RENT)