Hello and welcome to the first full week of 2026.

The US capture of President Nicolás Maduro took the international community by surprise at the weekend. Though perhaps it shouldn’t have. Venezuela has been subject to almost a decade’s worth of threats from US President Donald Trump. In sharp focus this week will be the White House’s plan for what comes next. 

Trump at a press conference said the US “would run” Venezuela until a “proper transition” could take place, though his administration is likely to face pushback from the UN, US Democrats and other entities arguing the case for international law. While Maduro waits to face the US justice system, there are a string of powerful Venezuelan officials who might not give up power lightly. Analysts will be closely monitoring the situation, as well as noises from opposition leaders such as Edmundo González and María Corina Machado. 

Venezuela is central to the oil trade and supply-side risks could generate ructions in crude prices when commodity markets reopen. Bond market investors are betting on a rally in Venezuela’s defaulted debts on hopes that repayment might become more probable post-Maduro.

Trump’s Venezuelan gambit will no doubt complicate attempts by his western allies to broker peace in Ukraine on Tuesday, when French President Emmanuel Macron hosts the “coalition of the willing” — a grouping of countries committed to securing an end to Russia’s war.

The meeting comes at a crunch point for Kyiv. A series of protracted negotiations between Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump have failed to yield a breakthrough, with deep-set disagreements about the duration of US security guarantees being a particular obstacle. The Kremlin and its allies unanimously denounced the Trump administration’s strikes on Venezuela, with the Russian foreign ministry calling it “an unacceptable violation of the sovereignty of an independent state”. Hypocrisy notwithstanding, suddenly the west’s “international law” condemnation of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion holds less weight.

South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung on Monday meets President Xi Jinping in Beijing for their second official meeting in two months. That unusually short interval illustrates China’s desire to strengthen economic and business ties with South Korea, especially while Beijing’s relations with Japan and Taiwan sour, analysts said. The two countries are strange bedfellows: the US, which has spent the past year goading China with a trade war, is a key South Korean ally. And North Korea, a nuclear-armed threat, is cosy with Beijing. Lee will later meet numerous other officials on the four-day trip, including Chinese premier Li Qiang.

In nearby Hong Kong, a string of blockbuster artificial intelligence firms are set to make their stock market debuts. Zhipu and MiniMax — two Chinese companies with open-weight large language models seen as possible rivals to OpenAI’s ChatGPT — will list on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Analysts hope they might revive the territory’s market after a lacklustre fourth quarter. China’s AI start-ups are central to its ambitions of securing supremacy in the technology race against the US.

In the UK, retailers and high street stalwarts will be surveying the upshot of the holiday season. On Tuesday, fashion retailer Next posts a Christmas trading update. On Thursday, Tesco, the country’s largest supermarket retailer, will post its Christmas trading statement, alongside Marks and Spencer and Greggs. J Sainsbury posts its trading statement a day later.

Analysts expect the subdued mood among UK consumers in November to have extended across the Christmas period, following the fallout of UK chancellor Rachel Reeves’ November Budget, anaemic growth and rising unemployment. Shop prices data from the British Retail Consortium, out on Tuesday, will probably validate the cost-of-living pressures facing households.

One more thing . . . 

I hope you had a happy and restful New Year. I’d love to know what your resolutions are for 2026. Email me at harvey.nriapia@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

My goal is to read one book a week. Ambitious? Maybe. But this piece from FT opinion editor Alice Fishburn illustrates the delightful pay-off of sticking to a New Year’s reading challenge.

Have a great week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Spain: December unemployment data

• Switzerland: December PMI

• Thailand: Central bank releases minutes of its last meeting

• Vietnam: December inflation, trade, industrial output and fourth-quarter GDP data

• Results: Foxconn Q4 revenue

Tuesday

• Kenya: December PMI

• UK: Shop prices data from British Retail Consortium

• Results: AAR Q2, AngioDynamics Q2, Next trading update, Penguin Solutions Q1

Wednesday

• US: Federal Reserve’s Michelle Bowman speaks at the California Bankers Association

• Results: Albertsons Q3, Apogee Enterprises Q3, Applied Digital Corporation Q2, Cal-Maine Foods Q2, Constellation Brands Q3, Franklin Covey Q1, Jefferies Q4, Kura Sushi Q1, MSC Industrial Direct Q1, Pluxee Q1 revenue, PriceSmart Q1, Pure Cycle Q1, Resources Connection Q2, Richardson Electronics Q2, Saratoga Investment Corp Q3, Topps Tiles Q1 trading statement, UniFirst Q1

Thursday

• Hong Kong: Chinese tech firms Zhipu AI, Iluvatar CoreX and Shenzhen Edge Medical scheduled to debut on stock exchange

• Japan: Bank of Japan to hold meeting of regional branch managers and issue quarterly report

• Norway: Norwegian Offshore Directorate to publish five-year outlook for the country’s oil and gas production and investments

• Peru: Interest rate decision

• Switzerland: Central bank releases minutes of last rate-setting meeting

• Results: Acuity Q1, AZZ Q3, CMC Q1, Greenbrier Q1, Greggs Q4 trading update, Lindsay Corporation Q1, M&S Christmas trading statement, Neogen Q2, RPM Q2, Seven & i Holdings Q3, Shell Q4 2025 quarterly update, Simply Good Foods Q1, Sodexo Q1, TD SYNNEX FY and Q4, Tesco Q3 and Christmas trading statement, Tilray Brands Q2, WD-40 Q1

Friday

• Hong Kong: MiniMax, Suzhou Ribo Life Science and Yunnan Jinxun Resources scheduled to debut on stock exchange

• US: Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari participates in fireside chat

• Results: Anixa Biosciences Q4, J Sainsbury trading update, Polestar Q4 sales, TSMC December revenue data, Unite trading update

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• China: Xi Jinping meets South Korean President Lee Jae Myung; 42nd Harbin International Ice and Snow festival starts

• France: Verdict expected in online bullying trial involving first lady Brigitte Macron

• US: Trial scheduled to begin for former Uvalde schools police officer

Tuesday

• Epiphany

• France: “Coalition of the willing” leaders meet

• US: Fifth anniversary of January 6 attacks on the Capitol; Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show opens

Wednesday

• Australia: Parkes Elvis festival

• Cyprus: Nation assumes rotating EU presidency, with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and other leaders expected at event in Nicosia

• Czech Republic: Czech security council to discuss future of ammunition initiative for Ukraine

• France: Funeral of film legend Brigitte Bardot takes place in Saint-Tropez

Thursday

• FT editor Roula Khalaf answers your questions in a live Ask an Expert Q&A. You can sign up here

• Jordan: EU-Jordan summit in Amman, with von der Leyen and president of the European Council, António Costa, expected to attend

• UK: Lawmakers question BBC bosses following Trump lawsuit

• US: California governor Gavin Newsom delivers State of the State address

Friday

Saturday

• South Africa: President Cyril Ramaphosa addresses a rally to celebrate the 114th anniversary of the African National Congress party

• South Korea: Ice fishing festival in Hwacheon

Sunday

• Australia: Final of United Cup tennis tournament

• Benin: Parliamentary election following December coup attempt

• Bolivia: Akulliku festival

• Myanmar: Second phase of general election

• US: Golden Globe Awards